Be Cautious if you have Futures Bets on….

Many know Cantor Gaming to have the sharpest line around.  Partially because they’re good bookmakers who occasionally take a position, and partially because they have such high limits that lots of syndicate money plays there and further sharpens their line.

So if Cantor is dealing the best odds in town on a particular game, you should be cautious of running over there and gobbling it up.

Case in point:  2010 Playoffs, NYJ @ NE.  The whole world lined NE a 9 to 9.5 point favorite, after the Patriots beat the Jets at home 45-3 just 6 weeks prior, and were off a 1st round bye in the playoffs.  The Jets eeked out a 1 point win over the Colts in the Wild Card round.

Mike Colbert at the M lined the game NE -7.5 and kept it there all week.  If you wanted NE, you went to the M.  Best line in town.  What happened?  NYJ led 14-3 at the half and upset the 14-2 NE Patriots.

Earlier today, Beyond the Bets posted a link to all the best odds for the NFL teams in Vegas. Cantor has the best odds for a number of teams.  It’s something to be cautious of if you respect the Cantor number.  You don’t have to bet against it, Cantor isn’t always right.  But it’s worth sharing and discussing.

NFL futures bets which Cantor has the best line in town (which should make you cautious):

 

Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East

Chicago Bears to win the NFC North

Cincinnati Bengals OVER 7.5 wins (Under 8 -115 available @ Treasure Island/Wynn)

Cleveland Browns UNDER 5.5 wins (Over 4.5 -170 available @ Treasure Island)

Denver Broncos UNDER 9.5 wins (Over 8.5 -155 available @ Stratosphere)

Detroit Lions to win the NFC North

Indianapolis Colts UNDER 5.5 wins (Over 5 -125 available @ Caesars/Stratosphere)

Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 8 wins (Over 7.5 -170 available @ Treasure Island)

Miami Dolphins UNDER 7.5 wins (Over 7 +160 available @ LVH)

New Orleans Saints UNDER 10 wins (Over 9.5 -125 available @ Caesars, MGM, Stations)

New York Giants to win the NFC East

Oakland Raiders to win the AFC West

San Diego Chargers to win the Super Bowl

San Diego Chargers to win the AFC Conference

Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 6 wins (Over 5.5 -135 available @ Wynn)

Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South

Washington Redskins to win the NFC East

H/T Note:  All odds found on the Strip within the last few days by Beyond the Bets.com

And to hear who Krackman, Chad Millman and other Vegas Professionals think provides the best NFL Totals betting advice for the 2012 NFL season, CLICK HERE.

10 Top Trends for Survivor Leagues in 2012: 8 strongest went 33-1 (97%) in 2011

Update:  Since these appear to be of interest, each week I’ll run each trend and share any potential plays on a weekly basis w/ season clients as yet another “added value” for 2012.  See bottom of this post for more “added value” I’m giving away free to all clients.

I have compiled a list of 10 top trends for situationally predicting very strong straight up (SU) results.  Following these trends should provide pick options for you in 2012 in most weeks.  But these are ONLY for NFL survivor leagues.  Most of these trends perform poorly if not very bad when analyzed for ATS results and betting against the point spread.

Let the countdown begin:

10.  83% – 297-47 SU – Non divisional home favs of at least 8 points after week 1, since 1998.  2011:  24-5 (83%)

9.  87% – 34-5 SU – Thursday home favs of at least 4 points, since 1994.  2011:  5-1 (83%)

8.  87% – 336-49 SU – Double digit home favorites, since 1997.  2011:  29-1 (97%)

7.  89% – 197-25 SU – Double digit non-divisional home favorites prior to week 17, since 1994.  2011: 18-1 (95%)

6.  91% – 21-2 SU – Divisional road favorites of over 8 points on Sunday, since 2002.  2011:  2-0 (100%)

5.  92% – 171-15 SU – Double digit home favorites who have won over 64% of games vs. a losing team who has lost over 40% of games, since 1995.   2011:  13-0 (100%)

4.  94% – 16-1 SU – Double digit divisional road favorites, since 1997.  2011:  1-0 (100%)

3.  97% – 29-1 SU – West coast home favs of over 8 points vs. a east coast team after week 1, since 1997.  2011: 1-0 (100%)

2.  100% – 25-0 SU – Home favs of over 10 points off of a bye, since 1996.  2011:  0-0 (N/A)

1.  100% – 32-0 SU – ???? – This trend is 32-0 SU but also a solid 27-4-1 (87%) ATS.  As such, it’s staying confidential in my vault of over 100 trends I use but don’t divulge (I have over 1,000 trends in a database and share them often in writeups w/ clients, but I never divulge specifics of my strongest trends.)  2011:  4-0 (100%)

As you can see, individually these trends went 1158-145 (89%) over an average of 16 seasons, and individually in 2011 they went  97-8 (92%).  Obviously there is some overlap as certain trends may be a subset of a prior trend, but the fact remains, these are very strong:

Removing any and all overlap, the 8 strongest trends went 33-1 (97%) in 2011!

Remember: these will not work ATS, but will produce uncanny SU results primarily for use when playing in NFL survivor leagues.

For more strong betting results on a weekly basis, listen to who the Pros trust to deliver results.  And don’t forget to view the Top Reasons to BUY a 2012 Package, including a new Client Only Podcast in 2012 w/ Krackman & More!

Sneak Peak at 1 of 7 NFL Regular Season Wins plays for Clients

Below you’ll see some of the analysis I shared w/ clients on NFL regular season wins.  These recommendations are a bonus for season clients, in addition to preseason summary information and 2012 Division Breakdowns w/ trend plays for 2012.

To view the analysis for 6 more selections along with strong Regular Season Win historical angles to support them, and to join the service that has industry professionals talking (Youtube), you need to purchase a season subscription.  And don’t forget that each purchase can be free, as I’ve given 1 free subscription away already with 3 more to go thru September 4th (more info here).

If you’re new to the service and want to see an example of the analysis I share w/ clients with regard to regular selections, view a preview of 3 Personal Play writeups HERE.  As you can see, there aren’t many services who share as indepth and valuable information and insight with clients on a regular, weekly basis as Sharp Football Analysis.  And for more reasons to purchase a season pass from Sharp Football Analysis, read THIS.

Example of One (of 7) Regular Season Win Client Only Recommendations:

Close Wins

Teams who win close games by less than 7 points struggle to win as many games the following year.  Since 2002, 59 teams with 3+ net more close wins than close losses (by less than 1 TD) lose an avg of 2.1 more games the following season.

The strongest contender for 2012:

  • Arizona Cardinals:  They won 8 games by less than 7 points, the most in the NFL last season.  In addition, they actually won 4 games in overtime.  Which leads into another small analysis:

Overtime Wins

Since 1995, teams with 3+ overtime wins and at least 7 total wins on the season have lost an average of 3.4 more games the following season.  But of all of these teams since 1995, none of them had 4 overtime wins like the Cardinals did last season.

  • Arizona Cardinals:  Therefore, we have two strong angles that show the Cardinals are due to win between 2.1 and 3.4 fewer games than the 8 they won last season.   Which puts them Under their season win total of 7 games.

Arizona Cardinals Under 7 wins (-155):

Since 1995, any team who wins 3+ Overtime games has lost an average of 3.4 more games the following season.   The Cardinals won 4 overtime games this year, no other team since 1995 had as many.

And the Cardinals won 8 games by less than 7 points, the most in the NFL last season, placing them in a group of teams that loses an avg of 2.1 more games the following season.

First lets look in division:  The Cardinals own the Rams (9-1 SU the last 5 seasons) but their last 4 games have been decided by +3, +4, +6 and -13 points (a loss).  If the Rams can improve at all in 2012 under Jeff Fisher, especially a home game vs. Ari on Thursday night week 5, possibly the Cardinals won’t sweep the series this year.  The Seahawks and 49ers should be good series, but it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals leaving those 4 games w/ more than 2 wins.

Outside the division last year, in 2011, the Cardinals went 1-3 vs. the AFC North (beat Cle) and 2-2 vs the NFC East (beat Phi & Dal).  In 2012, the Cardinals face the NFC North and AFC East, plus vs. Phi again and @ Atl, giving them the #3 hardest schedule in the NFL per my rankings.

The Cardinals early schedule is light (despite games vs. NE, Phi, Buf and Sea), but if they don’t have 5 wins in their first 7 games, it’s hard to see this bet losing, as their last 9 games feature the following teams:  SF, GB, Atl, Stl, NYJ, Sea, Det, Chi and SF, and they’d need to beat at least 4 of them (if they have less than 5 wins in first 7 games)

Also, the Cardinals face just 2 teams in back to back road games, which slightly below average this season.

The Cardinals defense shows great promise, and with Ray Horton operating w/ a full offseason for the first time, the unit should be poised to try and carry the team once again.  But the problem in 2012 is their opposition:  in 2011, the Cardinals never won a game which saw their opponents score more than 21 points (they went 0-7 if their opponent scored over 21 points).  While they went on their late season run in 2011 (they won their 7 of their last 9 games) beating teams such as Stl 2x, Dal, Cle, Sea, SF and Phi, they face significantly stronger offenses in 2012.

In 2011 they played just 6 offenses who averaged over 21 points on the season (Car, NYG, Bal, Phi, SF and Dal).

In 2012 they play 9:  NE, Phi, Buf, SF, GB, Atl, NYJ, Det and Chi.

This is a team w/ a shaky QB situation and a very tough non-division schedule.

In 2011, they won their 7 of their last 9 games to finish 8-8, but those 7 wins came by:  2 points, 3 points (x 3), 4 points, 6 points (x 2), with 4 of the wins coming in overtime.  In other words, these were single possession games and it’s unlikely even if given the same situation in 2012 they’d be able to win more than 5 (roughly half) of these games.