College Bowl Packages/Coupons, Guaranteed Plays, FREE CFB Betting Primer and YTD Results for CFB Totals (+30 Units)

The College Bowl season begins TODAY, and I’ve got the first of many bowl plays rolling in the 1pm ET kickoff between Nevada and Arizona.  There are 3 ways to get my bowl plays this year:

1.  I’m offering my College Bowl Package for $99, and you can it for just $79, with a $20 off coupon inside the the Bettor’s Sidekick app (free download from iTunes, view live scores, in-game win percentages and odds of winning your bet plus money management information).  This gets you access to my plays for all of the 34 Bowl games, as well as a very unique podcast:

Recorded last night and based on days of research covering opening and closing numbers from CRIS the last 5 years in addition to trends and angles researched, I have a podcast which shares all of this research and historical data with you.  This is FREE if you purchase either the Bowl Package or the December 2 Remember Package (discussed below).

2.  Alternatively, I’m selling each CFB total individually for $9 and if the game loses, a full refund is issued.  Purchase today’s bowl game here.

3.  Last week I introduced a December 2 Remember Package which contains all my NFL and CFB from NFL Week 14 thru Week 17 plus all CFB totals thru December 31st.  This package is also $99 and you can it for just $79, with a $20 off coupon inside the Bettor’s Sidekick app using the coupon code. This package is guaranteed to win “+” units at its conclusion, once the games of December 31st are complete.

December has been good to me and I’m working hard to really close out football season hot.  I’m 32-12 in the last 2.5 weeks of NFL/CFB.  But the only plays which count toward the guarantee for the December 2 Remember guarantee are those issued since the package began, which was just prior to last week’s NFL (which went 12-5-1 last week and is 2-0 so far this week).

CFB YTD Season Recap: 
127-104 (55%) for +30 units (flat betting 1 or 1.5 units/bet).   I started the 2012 campaign winning 4 of the first 5 weeks and netting +23.5 units.  After a 4 week run which saw me post 3 losing weeks and a total of -8.5 units lost, I did not have a losing week in any of the last 3 weeks, and gained +15 units as I closed out Thanksgiving and moved into December, to put us at +30 units YTD.

Good luck today and enjoy this CFB bowl season!


Examining Ease of Schedule via Opponent Red Zone Efficiency the Last Month of the Season

There is just 1 month left in the regular season, and in these 4 weeks, many teams entire future will change.  Some will go from playoff contender to sitting on their couch watching the playoffs, while others will move from a undervalued team to a team who snatched a playoff birth in the final week of the season.

If there is one key area to look at for a team, it is performance getting to and then while in the red zone.  This includes frequency of trips into the red zone and then conversion percentage into touchdowns while there.  My custom rankings look at trending factors as well as year long data to come up with a solid ranking system for teams on both offense and defense in the red zone.

In the table below you will see each team and then a comparison of their past and future opponents in red zone rankings.  First you’ll see the defenses they have faced and then the defenses they will face, to see how much more or less difficult it will be on their offense to close out the season.  Then you’ll see the offenses they have faced and those they will face, to see how much or how little of a challenge that their defense will face thru week 17.

Let’s look at a few teams in particular that jump out, and then we’ll look at those teams in playoff contention:

Offense is Looking Up for These Teams

NY Jets – So far this season the Jets have faced the 3rd toughest red zone defenses in the league.  Just off of a game vs. the Cardinals and in the last month, the Seahawks and the Rams, this team’s offense needs a break and it looks like they will, as they face the second easiest red zone schedule to close the season.  Including teams like Jacksonville, Tennessee and Buffalo, who rank #32, #27 and #28 respectively in my rankings, they face teams who average a ranking of 25th overall.

St. Louis – This team has played the toughest red zone defenses in the league thus far, with 3 of their last 4 games being vs. teams who rank in the top 4 of my rankings.  To close the season they face teams who average a ranking of 20th, including the 28th rated Bills followed by the 25th rated Vikings.

Dallas – This team has faced the 2nd most difficult red zone defense schedule, playing teams who rank in .  They will catch a break not by playing anyone extra easy, but by simply playing teams who are rated worse, such as the Saints and the Redskins.  But first they need to get past the #3 rated Bengals and the #7 rated Steelers.

Green Bay – Year to date they’ve faced the 6th toughest slate of red zone defenses, with 3 of their last 4 being against teams who rank in the top 10 (Arizona, Detroit, NY Giants).  Now after facing the poor red zone defense of the Vikings, they must hurdle the Lions and Bears, 9th and 12th respectively, but then could get into a solid offensive groove heading into the playoffs with the Titans and Vikings to close the season – no other playoff contender faces an easier final 2 weeks than the Packers.

Offense could Slow Down for These Teams

Many playoff contenders are in this position not because they are the best teams, but because they’ve faced an easy schedule than the teams below:

Atlanta – they’ve played the 3rd easiest red zone defenses and now must face the 4th most difficult, including teams like Detroit, NY Giants and Tampa Bay

Detroit – their schedule is the 6th most difficult to close the season after facing the 6th easiest thus far.  This includes games vs Arizona, Atlanta and Chicago.

San Francisco – this team must now play against 2nd most difficult gauntlet, such as Miami, Seattle and Arizona.

Defense will be Easier for Teams

Denver – the Broncos face the absolute easiest schedule in terms of opponent’s offensive red zone ineptitude to close the season of any team in the league.  They face no one better than 22 (Baltimore) in the red zone and face some terrible red zone offenses to close the season (Oakland, Cleveland and Kansas City), all of whom rank between 26 and 31.

Washington – the Redskins have played the 4th most difficult offenses so far this season, so it’s no wonder their defense has surrendered points and looked bad.  But now they face teams who average 29th in red zone rankings, including Baltimore (much worse on the road than at home), Cleveland, Philadelphia and finally a mediocre red zone offense in Dallas.

NY Jets – While this team will be facing some mediocre to poor red zone defenses to close the season, these teams pack some downright terrible red zone offense.  Facing the 2nd easiest schedule to close the season, they play Jacksonville (23), Tennessee (27), San Diego (24) and Buffalo (18).  While Jacksonville has improved with Henne leading the charge, the rest of the teams should make life easier on Rex Ryan’s defense.

These Defenses will find December to be Tough Sledding

Houston – The Texans are a good team, but they’ve also been fortunate in that they’ve played some downright bad red zone offenses.  Their overall  YTD schedule is the 2nd easiest but now must face the 5th toughest, starting Monday night with the #1 Patriots.  They then play the 10th rated Colts red zone offense twice to close the season.

Baltimore – The Ravens play the most difficult red zone defenses in the league to close the season.  The Redskins are not too bad (13), but after that they face the Broncos (5), the Giants (8) and the Bengals (3).  They’ll either need their defense to step up big time or for their offense to compensate and put up more points.

Indianapolis – The Colts face a tough road these last 4 weeks.  Their seeing the 5th largest jump in opposing defenses and also the 5th largest jump in opposing offenses –   Facing Tennessee and Houston twice in the last 4 weeks, this team must play with determination on both sides of the ball.

Atlanta – Detroit, NY Giants and Tampa Bay, are all ranked in the top third of the league in red zone offense.  This makes for the 6th most difficult schedule, and considering they faced the 10th easiest schedule thus far, it will be an adjustment for the Falcons

These Teams Face a Tough Road on Both Sides of the Ball:

New England, Arizona, Atlanta, Indianapolis and San Francisco all face big jumps in opponent quality of red zone performance on both sides of the ball the last month of the season.

These Teams Welcome Winter with Open Arms:

Carolina, Denver, NY Jets and Tennessee will see significantly easier opponents to close the season in terms of red zone performance on offense as well as defense.

Betting Strategies:

Several teams have good defenses and will play significantly weaker offenses in the red zone.  I will certainly look to play team total unders vs. their opponents, the first of which would be the Raiders last night against Denver.  Likewise, teams whose offense plays some really bad defenses and you can look to play their team totals over.  Of course, you can use these for betting ATS, totals, or for fantasy league purposes.