Below is a summary of the Golden Nugget lines updated after 1 weekend of market movement (h/t to Don Best for initially sharing these updated numbers). The table is sorted by total points moved.
At the top, the overall team which sharp money moved the most was the Iowa Hawkeyes, who saw the lines move a total of +7.5 points in their favor. Over 6 games, lines moved in their favor an average of 1.3 ppg.
Typical of sharp money, much of it came on underdogs. As you can see, the wiseguys were betting Iowa, Arkansas, Boston College, TCU, Auburn and Colorado the most ppg, and these teams opened, on average, as +14 ppg dogs, favored in just a handful of games in total.
TCU was bet “on” in 6 games, faded in 0. Auburn was bet “on” in 5 games, faded in 0. Other teams receiving no adverse betting action (with at least 3 games being bet in their favor) were Iowa, Colorado and California. Arizona State and Michigan were bet “on” in 5 games, and faded in just 1.
The strongest underdog that the wiseguys supported was Arizona State. ASU opened at pick or and underdog in 5 of their 10 games. And in EVERY SINGLE game ASU was a pick or dog, the wiseguys bet them, moving those 5 games a total of 6.5 points in ASU’s favor.
The same can be said for Michigan, who was a dog or pick in 4 games, and in EVERY SINGLE instance was bet on by the wiseguys.
As for favorites, sharp money liked betting TCU the most when favored. TCU was made a favorite 4 times, and the sharps increased their line in 3 of those games.
Overall, Arizona was the team which was faded the most by early money. They saw 100% of movement against them, not a single game was bet in their favor, and 6 of 10 games overall saw between 1/2 and 2 points bet against them.
Other teams who were not once supported by wiseguy money, and were faded in at least 3 games, included:
Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Ohio State (each faded 4 times) and Michigan State (faded 3 times). Another team wiseguy money was fading early: Northwestern, who was bet on just once, and faded 5 times.
Other teams that the sharp money faded included Navy, Rutgers, Boise St and Nevada. These teams didn’t have many lined games, but the sharp money bet against them in most every game which was lined.
The favorite that wiseguys faded the most was Texas A&M. Favored in 5 games, Wiseguys faded them in 3 of the 5, believing the double digits they were laying to Arkansas, Auburn and Missouri was too much. They also backed a LSU home team who was favored by just 1 over the Aggies, and bet that line up to 2.
And whenever Florida State, Oklahoma or Boise St were dogged, the wiseguys didn’t take the bait. Almost in 100% of all games these 3 teams were lined as the underdog, the sharp money faded them.
The largest movement was +3.5 points, received twice, when the sharp money bet Iowa against Northwestern and LSU against Mississippi. 3 point swings were seen on Arizona State (against Wisconsin) and Notre Dame (against Navy), with a 2.5 point swing bet on Arkansas against Rutgers.
Other Tidbits and Twitter Quick Hit Tweet Summaries
- Iowa was TERRIBLE 4-8 SU/3-8 ATS in 2012, but wiseguy $ LOVES them in 2013: not once fading Hawkeyes, moving line FOR them most of any team.
- FAVORITE wiseguys liked the most? TCU. (Bet “on” 6 games, faded 0). DOG wiseguys liked most? Arizona St (Bet “on” 100% when not favored).
- Despite going 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS as dogs last year, wiseguys LOVE Arizona State when not favs in 2013: In 5 games lined dog, BET ON ALL 5 x’s.
- Despite going 7-6 SU & 5-8 ATS in 2012, wiseguys LOVE TCU in 2013: sharp $ moved TCU lines in 6 of 9 games in their favor, NEVER faded them.
- FAVORITE wiseguys faded the most? Texas A&M, favored in 5 games, bet against in 3. DOGs wiseguys faded? Florida St, Oklahoma, Boise St.
- Johnny Football/Texas A&M dominated 2012 (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS, upset Bama). But wiseguy $ has FADED A&M in 2013, NOT ONCE backing the Aggies.
- Florida St went 12-2 SU/5-9 ATS in 2012, and wiseguys are FADING FSU in 2013: betting $ AGAINST them: faded 5x, including both x when dogs.
- DOGS wiseguys loved? Arizona St, Iowa, Michigan, Auburn, TCU, Arkansas. In 33 games lined as DOGs, they were NEVER faded & bet ON 23 times.
- FAVORITES wiseguys hated? Northwestern, Arizona, Texas A&M & Mich St. In 22 games as FAVS, sharp $ faded them 14 times & NEVER supported.
- Arizona went 8-5 SU and won their bowl game, but wiseguys HATE them in 2013: NOT ONCE betting on Arizona, they faded the Wildcats in 6 times
- Northwestern had FAIRY TALE 2012, (best ATS team). But wiseguys HATE NW in 2013: faded them 5 of 6 times inc 3.5 pts in 1 gm (largest move)!
- Top 25 teams supported most? TCU, Michigan, Florida. Top 25 teams faded most? Northwetstern, Texas A&M, LSU, Florida St, Oklahoma.
Note – to “zoom” in, click on chart twice!