On Sunday, LVH released their 2014 NFL Season Wins, and soon made their way to the internet via Joe Fortenbaugh. It is always fascinating to see where sharp linemakers view the teams. In addition, we also can compare these to previously released numbers from other sports books. Below, I compare LVH’s new numbers to those posted at South Point. South Point released theirs back in March, but have been updating them since. Below is the most recent numbers at the time of LVH’s release.
There are some very interesting results comparing the two numbers:
First, as you should know, with 32 teams playing 16 games, there is the opportunity for there to be 256 “wins” on the season. When South Point posted their openers back in March, as luck would have it, there were exactly 256 wins divided amongst the 32 teams. However, currently, there are now 260 wins! That means between the teams, bettors have driven up the totals by 4 full wins. While this might not seem like a lot, consider the fact that the linemakers will first play with the juice, and as a last resort, will adjust the season win total. LVH opened their numbers with a total wins of 258 between the 32 teams, yet again obviously more than humanly possible.
But if the total wins being high wasn’t enough, take a look at the juice. Both books are dealing 20 cent lines, so -110 on the over AND the under is equal juice on both sides of the number. Naturally, some overs should be larger than -110 (i.e -120, -130, etc) and some under should be -120, -130 and so forth. But South Point has just 6 overs receiving +100 or better. And on average, at South Point, overs are -122 with unders +102. At LVH, there are also only 6 overs lined at +100 or better, and the average over is -121 with overs +101.
The combination of win totals being set above 256 total “wins” plus overs being juiced above -120 on average shows these books know that even if they are setting silly numbers, bettors will STILL bet the over. As witnessed by South Point opening with 256 wins and now moving up to 260, with overs still being juiced -122. In other words, you can bet under 260 wins (a certainty) and get +102 to do so. They know the exposure to those under bets exists, but they know you won’t take them up on it, because they know you are a (most likely) a square.
The next fun exercise is discussing differences in opinion between the two books. The two largest differences are the Houston Texans and the Minnesota Vikings, where books are laying a full 1 point difference. South Point has Houston at 8.5 Under -145, while LVH has Houston at 7.5 Over -145. South Point has the Minnesota Vikings at 7 Under -145 while LVH has them at 6 Over +105.
There are smaller 1/2 game differences on 12 other teams, which can be seen from the below graphic. If you are going to get down on any of these in Vegas, there are some clear edges to either the LVH or South Point, depending on what you want to bet. So be sure to study the info closely and shop around. You will likely find yourself making a trip to the South Point and then driving north to LVH and betting at both shops.