2013 NFL Season Win Total Results

In 2012, for the first time, I wrote up and distributed NFL Season Win Totals.  In 8 plays, I went 6-2 (75%).

Obviously with such a strong record, I repeated the process in 2013.  This time, the writeups were even MORE in-depth.  This year, again there were 8 plays.

On these 8 plays in 2013, I went 6-2 (75%), just like in 2012.  The results were:

  • Atlanta Falcons Under 10 – WIN (4 Wins)

  • Chicago Bears Under 8.5 Wins – WIN (8 Wins)

  • Philadelphia Eagles Under 7.5 Wins – LOSS (10 Wins)

  • Minnesota Vikings Under 7.5 – WIN (5 Wins)

  • New York Jets Under 6.5 Wins – LOSS (8 Wins)

  • Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 Wins – WIN (4 Wins)

  • Kansas City Chiefs Over 7.5 Wins – WIN (11 Wins)

  • Carolina Panthers Over 7 Wins – WIN (12 Wins)

Certainly I will continue these in 2014.  After all, I don’t handicap ANYTHING other than football.  It’s my specialty, and is the reason my results year in and year out are positive and consistently good.  After 8 seasons sharing my plays, I’m 11-0, never having a losing season in the NFL (8 years) or College (3 years).

Now completing my 2nd year distributing these NFL season wins, I’m now 12-4 (75%) and clients have netted solid profit each and every year.  I’m already looking forward to breaking these down next August for 2014 clients.

So next summer, when I sell packages and offer season win totals as well, DO NOT SLEEP on these plays, but almost as good as the 75%, are the highly complex and informational write-ups.

As one example I will share, the Minnesota Vikings were an interesting play for me.  Because I played them OVER 6 wins (@ +110) in 2012, and they won 10 games.  But this year, I played them UNDER 7.5 and we cashed again (they won 5 games).  Here was the write-up I shared with clients this summer:

Minnesota Vikings Under 7.5 Wins

In 2012, Minnesota went 10-6 in the regular season after a 3-13 year in 2011.  I played them Over 6 +110 last year and obviously won.  This year I’m fading them.

Win Improvement:

– Since 2002, 41 teams won at least 10 games last season which was winning 4+ games more than they did 2 years ago.  Only 2 of 41 teams actually won more game the following year.  39 teams (95%) lost more games the following year, by an avg of 4 more losses.
– Of these 41 teams, if they won fewer than 5 games 2 years ago and then massively improved to win 10+ last year, they win an avg of 6 games the following season.

The first example shows a 95% angle indicating the Vikings should lose approx 4 more games in 2013 than they did in 2012.  This would drop them down to 6 wins in 2013.  The second example looks only at the teams who won fewer than 5 games 2 yrs ago (the Vikings won 3) and finds that these teams, on avg, win 6 games the next year, which ends up being the exact same result we see when we look at the first example.  The Vikings winning 6 games in 2013 would definitely go under the 2013 posted total.

Close Wins:

Now lets look at teams that earned a ton of close wins last season.  Since 2000, I looked at teams who, in 1 score games, won over 60% of these games and were at least +3 more wins than losses.

On average, these teams went 6.3-2.1 in games decided by 1 score or less the prior year, which is 75%.  The following year, they went 3.9-3.7, for only 51% wins.  This was a change of 2.4 more losses per season, looking only at these 1 score games.

The Vikings went 5-1 in one score games last season.  One of the reasons I played on them in 2012 was because in 2011 they actually suffered 8 losses by less than 6 points (n other team had more than 5).  Overall in 1 score games in 2011, the Vikings were 2-9.

That is an incredible 11 game turnaround from 2011!  Such a reversal has been seen only twice since 2000 – the 2009 Chargers (went 2-7 in one score games in 2008 to 8-1 in 2009) and the Colts last year.

So now lets look at only the teams who saw a turnaround of 8 games or more from one year to the next.  There are 7 such teams since 2000 who pulled it off and won at least 60% of their close games last season.

These teams went an avg of 6-1.9 (76%) in one score games last year after going an avg of 2-7 (22%) the prior year.  In the 3rd year, they fell back to a 2.9-5.6 (34%) mark, and a decrease of 3.1 fewer wins in these 1 score games from what they recorded the prior year.

But even more definitive was the impact these close wins had on the team’s overall record.  Because winning these tight games makes you feel unbeatable, and when you end up losing them the next year, you feel like its not your year.  This change in morale is huge, and affects more than just your record in that particular game, there is a carry over affect to your season as a whole.

These teams, who went from losing close games one year to crushing in them the next year, with a turnaround of 8+ games from one year to the next saw their average regular season record improve to 11-5.

However, the next season, they declined to a terrible 6-10 on average.  100% of the teams won fewer games the following year.  That’s a swing of 5 games, far more than the 3.1 decrease in just the “close” games.  As I said, it carrys over past just the close games and affects their overall record.

Obviously a swing of 5 games downward for the Vikings in 2013 will put them at 5-11 for 2013 and below their season win total.

General:

According to my model, the Vikings face the 4th toughest schedule this year, after playing the 29th rated schedule last year.  Last year they played the tough NFC West, but were treated to the weak AFC South, Tampa Bay and Washington.

Let’s look at how they put together their 10 wins?  4 of the 10 came in division.  That in itself is somewhat miraculous, as the Vikings were 0-6 in 2011 and 1-5 in 2010 vs. the NFC North.  After last beating the Packers back in 2009, the Vikings actually beat them week 17, setting up a playoff matchup with the Packers won handily.  For the first time since 2009, the Vikings swept the Lions.  And for the first time since 2009, the Vikings beat the Bears in 2012.

So we saw some monumental achievements that hadn’t been done in 3 years, all occur last year for the Vikings.  Next, looking at non-divisional games, the Vikings actually beat (in big upsets) both the Fortyniners and the Texans.  That’s quite an achievement.

The Vikings had a monumental season last year, but like most teams which have such a monumental turnaround, it came with a lot of great luck (close wins) which are typically not repeated the following season.

Despite making the playoffs last year, the Vikings were the the 27th rated team last year in ability to drive the field to score TDs as well as preventing opponents from doing the same.  They scored TDs on 14% of possessions which started at their own 30 or worse.  The allowed TDs from teams starting inside their own 30 or worse on 20% of possessions.  The combination ranked them only ahead of the Rams, Cardinals, Raiders, Titans, Chiefs and Eagles last season.

Lastly, let’s look at this Murderers Row streak of opponents the Vikings face between weeks 4 and 14.  In parenthesis are the opponent’s wins in 2012:

Steelers (8), Panthers (7), Giants (9), Packers (11), Cowboys (8), Redskins (10), Seahawks (11), Packers (11), Bears (10), Ravens (10).  That is 10 straight opponents who are strong contenders in 2013 and who were good teams in 2012.  There is not one break, not one bad team in the bunch.  As I indicated at the top, this schedule is the 4th toughest after facing the 29th rated in 2012.

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