With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, it’s time to start taking a serious look at the betting markets.
In this article, I’ll be sharing some of my top recommendations for 2024 NFL Draft prop bets.
Be sure to check back often as we’ll update when new props appear or new information changes our thinking.
NFL Draft Prop: Cooper DeJean draft position over 22.5 (+100)
Potential landing spots for Cooper DeJean that would cause us to lose this bet are Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia.
I address below the Eagles’ tendency to avoid early cornerbacks despite the need (see the Eagles offensive line draft prop).
Cincinnati is also unlikely to have DeJean high on their draft board as they have a long history of targeting team captains and/or players who reached the college football playoff. DeJean checks neither box.
So that leaves Jacksonville and Pittsburgh as the teams to worry about.
However, the Jaguars have a glaring need at wide receiver plus many other cornerbacks they may prefer.
And the Steelers are more likely to target an offensive lineman with that selection.
NFL Draft Prop: First defensive player selected: Quinyon Mitchell (+1500)
The Falcons are likely to make the first defensive selection, and Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is definitely in the conversation.
Atlanta had Mitchell in town for a top 30 visit earlier this spring as well as Alabama cornerbacks Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold.
Individual visits don’t necessarily correlate to interest in the player (there’s no guarantee the visit went well, after all), but consistent attention to a specific position is often a telling sign.
Alabama edge-rusher Dallas Turner is the favorite for this prop (-135), but the debate likely comes down to Turner and Mitchell.
Since GM Terry Fontenot comes from New Orleans, which has a long history of valuing the secondary, it’s reasonable to take a flier on Mitchell at these odds.
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NFL Draft Prop: Bills first player drafted to be an offensive lineman (+500)
We know the Bills need a wide receiver – they are -300 to draft one – but nothing Buffalo has done this offseason has been with the 2024 season in mind.
Reaching to fill an immediate need would be out of character for GM Brandon Beane, especially within the context of the last few months.
Buffalo also has lingering questions on the offensive line.
Connor McGovern is expected to make the shift from guard to center, forcing David Edwards into a starting role, and right tackle Spencer Brown is in the final year of his contract.
Drafting a tackle to replace Brown in 2025, especially if that player can push Edwards for a starting job at guard in 2024, is a definite possibility.
You could also pair this bet with defensive line or EDGE, which is also +500.
Von Miller was a disappointment last year, Greg Rousseau potentially enters the final year of his contract (Buffalo could pick up his fifth-year option), and A.J. Epenssa was recently re-signed, but only to a two-year deal.
NFL Draft Prop: Eagles first player drafted to be an offensive lineman (+150)
Cornerback is currently the favorite here (+130), but that selection would be out of character for GM Howie Roseman.
Since Roseman regained control of the roster in 2016, he has selected just one cornerback within the top 75 picks.
That was Sidney Jones, one of the biggest busts of Roseman’s tenure.
Roseman tends to address the cornerback position with veterans (Darius Slay, James Bradberry) while trying to develop middle or late-round picks (Kelee Ringo, Avonte Maddox).
Philly also has questions on the offensive line: Is Cam Jurgens ready to take over at center? Can Tyler Steen win a starting job at guard? How much longer will Lane Johnson play?
Those offensive line concerns also match well with the strength of this first-round class.
Tackles such as Alabama’s JC Latham and Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton or interior linemen such as Duke’s Graham Barton or Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson would pair need with value for the Eagles.
NFL Draft Prop: Total ACC Players Selected in 1st Round Under 4.5 (-285)
North Carolina’s Drake Maye will be a first-round pick. Duke’s Graham Barton, Florida State’s Jared Verse, and Clemson’s Nate Wiggins are likely first-round selections. That brings us to four, putting us at risk of going over.
However, the next guys up are probably Florida State’s Braden Fiske and Keon Coleman, who look like first-round longshots.
Fiske is 24 years old and has a history of injuries.
Coleman is just 20 years old and an ascending talent, but he is unlikely to land in the first round due to inconsistent play and the deep wide receiver class.
NC State linebacker Payton Wilson is also a first-round talent, but a long history of injuries likely pushes him closer to the third round than the first.
We’ll probably be holding our breath with the last few selections, but the under should hit.
