Special Weekend Edition – NFL Week 12 – 11/28/15

Week 12’s Sunday games are TOMORROW and Warren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com is joined by Evan Silva of Rotoworld.com and discusses matchups, DFS plays and fades, and a massive deep dive into all the angles and advanced metrics you need to set great lineups and have a successful Sunday of sports betting. Plus, insights from NFLproject.com’s machine learning algorithm for playoff futures and teams who are in need-to-win situations. Available on iTunes for audio only; for video & graphic integration, available HERE on Sharp Football Analysis or subscribe on YouTube.

Special Thanksgiving Edition – NFL Week 12 – 11/25/15

Warren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com previews the NFL week 12 slate with an eye to metrics you may have missed or overlooked. Touching on the Thanksgiving slate of games plus Sunday’s slate.  Deep dives and a ton of info you don’t want to miss.  Available on iTunes for audio only; for video & graphic integration, available HERE on Sharp Football Analysis or subscribe on YouTube.

Week 11 DFS Hits and Misses – Client Only

NOTE: for those of you getting the NFL Preview, I’m throwing in the DFS material.  I already released the below packet to clients earlier in the week, click to see the pdf.  Below that is my weekly Hits & Misses column, this one obviously for games Sunday and Monday of Week 11.

Week 11 Packet – Advanced Metrics Matchup Guide

If you’ve put in the work reviewing the matchup sheets, some of these won’t come as a surprise. Let’s just jump right in. FYI, YPPT = yds/point, which will be a valuable metric in fantasy because scoring TDs efficiently is vital to fantasy scoring, and YPPT is such a comprehensive metric. If there are any other questions on terms used, feel free to ask on Twitter or via email.

Position – Hit/Miss – Name, Team vs Opponent – (Draft Kings Salary Rk, Fanduel Salary Rk) || – notes

QB Hit = Matthew Stafford vs OAK – (13, 16) ||  Don’t get me wrong, I like Derek Carr as well, but Stafford is almost $1000 cheaper on Draft Kings, and is in an offense which is going to pass the ball a lot and goes up against a defense which has struggled to rush the passer and is now without Aldon Smith, their 2nd best pass rusher.

QB Hit = Matthew Hasselbeck @ ATL – (12, 23) ||  Clearly I’d prefer to go with Hasselbeck in Fan Duel with a much lower price.  The Falcons defense ranks 31st in pass rush efficiency, and has played the 2nd easiest schedule of opposing offenses this year.  The last time they faced a QB with experience was Drew Brees and they were lit up for 300 yards and a 107 rating.  Literally, the quarterbacks who the Falcons have faced since week 2 aside from Brees are:  Blaine Gabbert, Jameis Winston, Zach Mettenberger, Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Brandon Weeden.  Somehow the Falcons rank only 23rd against the pass (should be better given those QBs), and that is a big concern for Atlanta.  Its not as if Hasselbeck should be excluded from that class of quarterback, but there is a good chance he outperforms his price.

QB Miss = Aaron Rodgers @ MIN – (2, 2) ||  Arod could go off against the Vikings, and everything could come back into focus for the Packers.  But for me, I’ll let that happen without the substantial investment into him.  Maybe he’s terrible, maybe he’s OK, and maybe I’ll look at him next week vs the Bears, but not this week.

RB Hit = Adrian Peterson vs GB – (3, 3)  ||   The Packers run defense has literally faced run offenses which rank:  32 (DET), 29 (SD), 27 (DEN) and 23 (SF).  They faced only two respectable run offenses.  The Rams went to Green Bay and ran for 191 yards and 5.3 yards per carry back in week 5, and in week 9, Cam Newton did most of the damage early and with a big lead, the final run stats are less valuable, but this stat is strong: removing WR gadget runs, the Panthers ran for 89 yards in the first half on 16 carries, or 5.6 yards per carry.

RB Hit = Charcandrick West @ SD – (22, 10)  ||  He’ll be high owned at that price on Draft Kings, so a far better H2H or 50/50 play, but the Chargers run defense is one to target and this game is likely to feature a lot of back-and-forth ground and pound from the Chiefs to play keep away from Rivers and the Chargers.

RB Hits = Instead of doing a RB miss, I’ll run thru a few other guys I really like, because I think LeGarrette Blount, DeMarco Murray and Jonathan Stewart are all players I’m going to rotate thru my lineups.  Sure, these are all midpriced and guys like Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley and Marshawn Lynch could explode, but I think the guys I just mentioned from a volume perspective should have solid upside while providing flexibility elsewhere.

WR Hit = Michael Crabtree @ DET – (17, 23)  ||  The Raiders pass the ball on 62% of play calls in one score games, 7th most frequently, and their offense ranks 1st in pass protection efficiency and 4th in passing efficiency.  Those are strong numbers despite facing defenses of the Broncos, Jets and Vikings in three of their last 5 games.  Which is why, while ranking 16th in ability to avoid third downs, when adjusting for strength of schedule, they are 7th best.  The Lions defense ranks 27th in yards per point allowed and yards per pass allowed, and are by far the worst the Raiders will have faced since September with the exception of the Chargers, and the Raiders put up 37 in that game.

WR Hit = Mike Evans @ PHI – (5, 6)  ||  Mike Evans is a target monster and due to necessity with regard to the lack of other healthy weapons, likely playing from behind after the Eagles either score quickly or get off the field quickly, Evans should have time to get targets and the need to get targets.

WR Hit = Danny Amendola vs BUF – (38, 29)  ||  When Dion Lewis went out with injury, Amendola’s targets started to increase.  Now without Edelman, Amendola’s targets increase even more.  Not likely to be low owned, he’s great for head to heads and 50/50s.  He was targeted 10 times last week and has a high catch rate.

TE Hit = Zach Ertz vs TB – (17, 17) ||  As a value play and someone who worked well with Sanchez when he was in there.  Of course, if you’ve saved elsewhere and can afford Rob Gronkowski, he will be a target monster.