Last year the Denver Broncos rarely used shotgun.  On average, teams used shotgun on 63% of their snaps.  The Broncos used it only 42% of the time, 21% less than average.  Much of the reason had to do with Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme and preference.  But all of that will change this season.  And there are two key impacts it will have on this offense:  the team may get far more predictable on offense, and the passing offense may be even worse as Trevor Siemian struggles tremendously in shotgun.

First, let’s discuss predictability.  As mentioned, the Broncos used shotgun on only 42% of their snaps.  It was the second least in the NFL.  Here is the entire landscape of the 32 teams last season and their shotgun v under center rates, courtesy of the Snap Rates page at Sharp Football Stats:

DEN shotgun rate

Being close to a 50/50 split is not a bad thing.  After all, tremendous offenses like the Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys and Saints were all using shotgun less than average.  There is an inherent relationship between game script and shotgun usage, so some of the worse offenses use shotgun more when they are trailing, and don’t pass as often when lining up under center.  Still, we see that it’s a preference, as some teams who won a lot (Packers, Seahawks, Chiefs and Steelers) used shotgun well above average, and some teams who lost a lot of games (Broncos, Saints, Redskins and Rams) used shotgun well below average.

The problem for the Broncos last year was predictability.  When in shotgun, they passed the ball on 86% of their play calls (4th most).  They were far less predictable when under center, where they passed the ball on 41% of their play calls, but this was still the 3rd most “pass heavy” team from under center.  That makes sense, however, considering how infrequently they used shotgun.  If the Broncos were the 4th most pass heavy team in shotgun, but rarely used shotgun, they had to pass the ball a lot more often when under center.

So what could we see in 2017?  Well the new Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has emphasized the team’s desire to be more aggressive offensively, and that includes more shotgun.  His offense is more of a spread, pass-first offense.  They want to operate out of the shotgun more and sprinkle in more deep shots down the field.  The thought was that this would play more to Paxton Lynch’s strength, given that Lynch came from a shotgun offense in college.  Perhaps too many snaps under center (Kubiak’s 2016 offense) was what was holding Lynch back?  In training camp, Demaryius Thomas said this about Lynch:

“It’s totally different.  It’s something he’s more comfortable in. He’s used to being in the shotgun and seeing the defense instead of turning his back to the defense. I say that about every other quarterback that I have played with, the same with Peyton [Manning]. He [Lynch] was with an offense in college where he was in the shotgun all the time and he was comfortable with that, and he’s in it now. His confidence is way better than it was last year.”

But here is the problem:  Lynch didn’t win the starting quarterback job.  While all of the talk was good in May, June and July, in August Lynch lost the battle once again this summer.  Trevor Siemian is the Broncos 2017 starting quarterback.

And while Trevor Siemian said that every quarterback prefers to be in shotgun, he clearly is less sentient than most playing the position.  Because he struggles tremendously from shotgun, at least thus far in his career.

I prefer using visualizations to emphasize points and the visuals on the Receiving Success Rate Over Average (SROA) at Sharp Football Stats prove this point tremendously:

Siemian UNDER CENTER

Siemian Shotgun

While Siemian’s success wasn’t great under center, his success rate of 54% was still approximately the NFL average.  However, put him in shotgun and that success rate dips a full 10%, down to 43.7%.  And it now drops to nearly 5% below the NFL average.  As the above numbers show, even though the Broncos are going to become even more shotgun-heavy in 2017, they still used shotgun for the majority of their pass attempts in 2016, meaning the sample size is clearly worth analyzing.  And the results are troubling.

Inside the red zone, just 34% of Siemian’s pass attempts were successful, one of the worst marks in the NFL.  And the problem can be significantly attributed to Siemian’s struggles from shotgun.  Below I’ve outlined a great feature of this SROA tool, and that is segregating out field position (among many other filter capabilities).  In field goal range, when the Broncos are trying to score those elusive TDs instead of settling for field goals (Denver averaged less than 21 ppg last year), the problem was Siemian’s struggles in shotgun.

Here we see that Siemian was actually successful on nearly 60% of pass attempts when under center, 8% above league average.

Siemian inside opp 35 - under center

However, when in shotgun inside the opponent’s 35 yard line, Siemian’s struggles were evident.  His success rate dropped from nearly 60% down to 37%.  Even on shorter passes, his success rate was extremely poor.  Overall, he dropped from 8% better than average when under center to approximately 8% worse than average when operating out of shotgun.

Siemian inside opp 35 - SHOTGUN

To use more common, non-advanced stats, here is how Siemian compared inside the opponent’s 35 yard line last year:

  • Under center:  123 rating, 8.1 YPA, 70% completions, 5:1 TD:INT
  • From shotgun:  71 rating, 3.9 YPA, 54% completions, 8:5 TD:INT

This was not a case of the Broncos using shotgun only in detrimental situations, thus forcing these shotgun numbers to expectedly become worse.  This isn’t a case of 3rd and long situations from shotgun, focusing primarily on low efficiency RB passes.  Take a look at these numbers, under these parameters:

  1. Inside the opponent’s 35 yard line
  2. On early downs (1st and 2nd)
  3. On passes only targeting WRs and TEs

Here is what Siemian delivered last season:

  • Under center:  123 rating, 8.8 YPA, 69% completions, 5:1 TD:INT, 66% success, 13% SROA
  • From shotgun:  52 rating, 4.1 YPA, 58% completions, 2:3 TD:INT, 43% success, -5% SROA

Clearly this shows these numbers are not a factor of 3rd and hopeless and obvious passing situations from shotgun.  This was a big flaw in Siemian’s game last season.

Charting out Siemian’s critical game 3 of the preseason, he attempted all but 3 of his 22 passes from shotgun.  The team will run the ball far more from shotgun than they did in 2016, but they will also pass much more from shotgun.  Playing into the weakness of Siemian.  Additionally, my fear is that Denver’s run rate when under center will be predictably high, giving defenses another key and increasing their ability to stuff the run easier.

The Broncos traded up for Paxton Lynch in 2016, drafting him with the 26th overall selection.  They hoped he might be ready in 2016, but he was not.  They surely believed he would be ready in 2017, and one of the perks of new OC Mike McCoy’s offense was the shotgun style more familar to Lynch.  Unfortunately, that didn’t help Lynch and Siemian won the job (again).  And unfortunately for Denver, Siemian has showed that he struggles immensely from shotgun, particularly in scoring position.

What does that mean in 2017?  It means that for this marriage of McCoy’s offense with Siemian’s arm to see any hope for success, McCoy will have to get Siemian to perform better from shotgun.  It’s as simple as that.  There is absolutely no sugar-coating the situation.  If Siemian once again performs poorly from shotgun, the offense is doomed considering how often McCoy will get him to pass from shotgun.

I spoke with Benjamin Allbright, a Denver radio host and news insider, and he said:

“Denver brought McCoy and [Bill] Musgrave in for their experience in developing quarterbacks and adapting their offenses to them.”

The only alternative, if Siemian continues his struggles from the shotgun, is for McCoy to understand the weakness of his quarterback and get Siemian to take snaps from under center more often.  In either case, it will be fascinating to see the dynamic (and hopefully positive growth) in 2017 when Siemian takes snaps from shotgun.

About the author:  Warren Sharp (follow: @SharpFootball) owns and operates SharpFootballAnalysis.com and SharpFootballStats.com