2023 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Regular Season

What NFL team has the easiest remaining schedule in 2023:

The New Orleans Saints have the easiest remaining strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest remaining schedules in 2023:

  1. New Orleans Saints
  2. Atlanta Falcons
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  4. Green Bay Packers
  5. Houston Texans

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What NFL team has the hardest remaining schedule in 2023:

The Baltimore Ravens have the hardest remaining strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest remaining schedules in 2023:

  1. Baltimore Ravens
  2. Cincinnati Bengals
  3. Buffalo Bills
  4. Tennessee Titans
  5. Washington Commanders

» NEW: Full Analysis on Remaining NFL Strength of Schedule


What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2023:

Based on projected win totals, the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2023:

  1. Atlanta Falcons
  2. New Orleans Saints
  3. Indianapolis Colts
  4. San Francisco 49ers
  5. Carolina Panthers

What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2023:

Based on projected win totals, the New England Patriots have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2023:

  1. New England Patriots
  2. Las Vegas Raiders
  3. Miami Dolphins
  4. Los Angeles Chargers
  5. Kansas City Chiefs

We’ve ranked easiest (#1) to hardest (#32) schedule for the 2023 season, plus projected win totals and current betting odds for every NFL team.

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule:

RankTeamProjected Win TotalCurrent Line
1Atlanta Falcons8.38.5 +110
2New Orleans Saints9.359.5 +105
3Indianapolis Colts6.86.5 -140
4San Francisco 49ers10.610.5 -120
5Carolina Panthers7.757.5 -135
6Chicago Bears7.757.5 -135
7Pittsburgh Steelers8.78.5 -130
8Seattle Seahawks8.78.5 -130
9Houston Texans6.36.5 +110
10Philadelphia Eagles10.8710.5 -150
11Green Bay Packers7.57.5 -110
12New York Giants8.28.5 +120
13Tennessee Titans7.37.5 +110
14Dallas Cowboys9.79.5 -130
15Jacksonville Jaguars9.79.5 -130
16Los Angeles Rams7.157.5 +125
17Baltimore Ravens9.69.5 -120
18Detroit Lions9.69.5 -120
19Cleveland Browns9.19.5 +130
20Arizona Cardinals4.74.5 -130
21Cincinnati Bengals11.311.5 +110
22Denver Broncos8.58.5 -110
23Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.36.5 +110
24Washington Commanders6.66.5 -120
25New York Jets9.859.5 -145
26Buffalo Bills10.810.5 -140
27Minnesota Vikings8.68.5 -120
28Kansas City Chiefs11.811.5 -140
29Los Angeles Chargers9.59.5 -110
30Miami Dolphins9.49.5 +100
31Las Vegas Raiders7.17.5 +130
32New England Patriots7.67.5 -120

Strength of schedule movement since May, 2023:

We start tracking strength of schedule in May, when win totals are first released by oddsmakers.

Tracking projected win totals entering Week 1, we can measure which team schedules got harder and which got easier:

Strength of schedule got harder:

  • Buccaneers -8 spots to #23
  • Jaguars -7 to #15
  • Lions -4 to #18
  • Texans -4 to #9
  • Titans -4 to #13
  • Bengals -2 to #21
  • Browns -2 to #19
  • Saints -1 to #2
  • Panthers -1 to #5
  • Ravens -1 to #17
  • Jets -1 to #25
  • Vikings -1 to #27
  • Chargers -1 to #29

Strength of schedule got easier:

  • Giants +9 spots to #12
  • Cowboys +6 to #14
  • Eagles +3 to #10
  • Steelers +3 to #7
  • Seahawks +3 to #8
  • 49ers +2 to #4
  • Rams +2 to #16
  • Cardinals +2 to #20
  • Falcons +1 to #1
  • Bears +1 to #6
  • Packers +1 to #11
  • Broncos +1 to #22
  • Commanders +1 to #24
  • Bills +1 to #26
  • Chiefs +1 to #28

No change in strength of schedule rankings: Colts (#3), Dolphins (#30), Raiders (#31), Patriots (#32).

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2023 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2023 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.

How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?

Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:

  • of the 10 teams predicted to have the hardest 2022 schedules, only 2 went to the playoffs (Bengals, Chiefs)
  • of the 7 teams forecast to have losing records but predicted to have easier than average schedules, 5 went over their win total (Giants, Lions, Commanders, Jaguars, Panthers)
  • of the 9 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers, Vikings)

Are Strength of Schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

  • of the 7 teams that actually had the easiest 2022 schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, 49ers, Jaguars, Cowboys, Chargers, Chiefs)
  • of the 7 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, 2 went to the playoffs (Dolphins, Bengals)
  • of the 11 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, only 3 went over their win total (Bengals, Steelers, Jets)

Trying to exceed and overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (2 out of top 7 in 2022) and likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectation was quite regular (only 1 out of top 7 did not).

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2022 Actuals

Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2022) versus projected 2023 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.

TeamForecast 2023 SOS2022 Actual SOS2023 Improvement Rank
Atlanta Falcons1125
New Orleans Saints2183
Indianapolis Colts3811
San Francisco 49ers4220
Carolina Panthers5213
Chicago Bears6282
Pittsburgh Steelers7311
Seattle Seahawks81114
Houston Texans9521
Philadelphia Eagles10125
Green Bay Packers111512
New York Giants121612
Tennessee Titans131317
Dallas Cowboys14624
Jacksonville Jaguars15327
Los Angeles Rams16266
Baltimore Ravens17257
Detroit Lions181719
Cleveland Browns19277
Arizona Cardinals202314
Cincinnati Bengals21297
Denver Broncos221027
Tampa Bay Buccaneers232416
Washington Commanders241922
New York Jets253210
Buffalo Bills262023
Minnesota Vikings271429
Kansas City Chiefs28432
Los Angeles Chargers29730
Miami Dolphins303017
Las Vegas Raiders31930
New England Patriots322226

NFL Rest Disparity based on the 2023 Schedule:

Which NFL team has the best rest edge in 2023?

The New York Jets, Chicago Bears, and Washington Commanders have the best rest edges for the 2023 NFL season.

Those three teams have 12 more days of rest than their opponents.

Which NFL team has the worst rest edge in 2023?

The San Francisco 49ers have the worst rest edge for the 2023 NFL season.

The 49ers have 20 fewer days of rest than their opponents.

Read more about which teams are helped & hurt most by the NFL schedule.

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