Sharp Football Analysis calculates the NFL Strength of Schedule for all 32 teams using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.
What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2023:
Based on projected win totals, the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2023:
- Atlanta Falcons
- New Orleans Saints
- Indianapolis Colts
- San Francisco 49ers
- Carolina Panthers
What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2023:
Based on projected win totals, the New England Patriots have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2023:
- New England Patriots
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Miami Dolphins
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Kansas City Chiefs
We’ve ranked easiest (#1) to hardest (#32) schedule for the 2023 season, plus projected win totals and current betting odds for every NFL team.
2023 NFL Strength of Schedule:
| Rank | Team | Projected Win Total | Current Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | 8.3 | 8.5 +110 |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints | 9.35 | 9.5 +105 |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | 6.8 | 6.5 -140 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 10.6 | 10.5 -120 |
| 5 | Carolina Panthers | 7.75 | 7.5 -135 |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 7.75 | 7.5 -135 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.7 | 8.5 -130 |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 8.7 | 8.5 -130 |
| 9 | Houston Texans | 6.3 | 6.5 +110 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10.87 | 10.5 -150 |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | 7.5 -110 |
| 12 | New York Giants | 8.2 | 8.5 +120 |
| 13 | Tennessee Titans | 7.3 | 7.5 +110 |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 9.7 | 9.5 -130 |
| 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.7 | 9.5 -130 |
| 16 | Los Angeles Rams | 7.15 | 7.5 +125 |
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 9.6 | 9.5 -120 |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | 9.6 | 9.5 -120 |
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 9.1 | 9.5 +130 |
| 20 | Arizona Cardinals | 4.7 | 4.5 -130 |
| 21 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11.3 | 11.5 +110 |
| 22 | Denver Broncos | 8.5 | 8.5 -110 |
| 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.3 | 6.5 +110 |
| 24 | Washington Commanders | 6.6 | 6.5 -120 |
| 25 | New York Jets | 9.85 | 9.5 -145 |
| 26 | Buffalo Bills | 10.8 | 10.5 -140 |
| 27 | Minnesota Vikings | 8.6 | 8.5 -120 |
| 28 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11.8 | 11.5 -140 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | 9.5 -110 |
| 30 | Miami Dolphins | 9.4 | 9.5 +100 |
| 31 | Las Vegas Raiders | 7.1 | 7.5 +130 |
| 32 | New England Patriots | 7.6 | 7.5 -120 |
Strength of schedule movement since May, 2023:
We start tracking strength of schedule in May, when win totals are first released by oddsmakers.
Tracking projected win totals entering Week 1, we can measure which team schedules got harder and which got easier:
Strength of schedule got harder:
- Buccaneers -8 spots to #23
- Jaguars -7 to #15
- Lions -4 to #18
- Texans -4 to #9
- Titans -4 to #13
- Bengals -2 to #21
- Browns -2 to #19
- Saints -1 to #2
- Panthers -1 to #5
- Ravens -1 to #17
- Jets -1 to #25
- Vikings -1 to #27
- Chargers -1 to #29
Strength of schedule got easier:
- Giants +9 spots to #12
- Cowboys +6 to #14
- Eagles +3 to #10
- Steelers +3 to #7
- Seahawks +3 to #8
- 49ers +2 to #4
- Rams +2 to #16
- Cardinals +2 to #20
- Falcons +1 to #1
- Bears +1 to #6
- Packers +1 to #11
- Broncos +1 to #22
- Commanders +1 to #24
- Bills +1 to #26
- Chiefs +1 to #28
No change in strength of schedule rankings: Colts (#3), Dolphins (#30), Raiders (#31), Patriots (#32).
2023 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization
While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2023 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.
Here is a visual breakdown of 2023 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.
How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?
Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:
- of the 10 teams predicted to have the hardest 2022 schedules, only 2 went to the playoffs (Bengals, Chiefs)
- of the 7 teams forecast to have losing records but predicted to have easier than average schedules, 5 went over their win total (Giants, Lions, Commanders, Jaguars, Panthers)
- of the 9 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers, Vikings)
Are Strength of Schedule projections accurate?
Short answer: YES
- of the 7 teams that actually had the easiest 2022 schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, 49ers, Jaguars, Cowboys, Chargers, Chiefs)
- of the 7 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, 2 went to the playoffs (Dolphins, Bengals)
- of the 11 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, only 3 went over their win total (Bengals, Steelers, Jets)
Trying to exceed and overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (2 out of top 7 in 2022) and likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectation was quite regular (only 1 out of top 7 did not).
2023 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2022 Actuals
Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2022) versus projected 2023 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.
| Team | Forecast 2023 SOS | 2022 Actual SOS | 2023 Improvement Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 1 | 12 | 5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 2 | 18 | 3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 21 | 3 |
| Chicago Bears | 6 | 28 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8 | 11 | 14 |
| Houston Texans | 9 | 5 | 21 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 1 | 25 |
| Green Bay Packers | 11 | 15 | 12 |
| New York Giants | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| Tennessee Titans | 13 | 13 | 17 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 14 | 6 | 24 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 3 | 27 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 16 | 26 | 6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 17 | 25 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 18 | 17 | 19 |
| Cleveland Browns | 19 | 27 | 7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 20 | 23 | 14 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 21 | 29 | 7 |
| Denver Broncos | 22 | 10 | 27 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 | 24 | 16 |
| Washington Commanders | 24 | 19 | 22 |
| New York Jets | 25 | 32 | 10 |
| Buffalo Bills | 26 | 20 | 23 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 27 | 14 | 29 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 28 | 4 | 32 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 29 | 7 | 30 |
| Miami Dolphins | 30 | 30 | 17 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 31 | 9 | 30 |
| New England Patriots | 32 | 22 | 26 |
NFL Rest Disparity based on the 2023 Schedule:
Which NFL team has the best rest edge in 2023?
The New York Jets, Chicago Bears, and Washington Commanders have the best rest edges for the 2023 NFL season.
Those three teams have 12 more days of rest than their opponents.
Which NFL team has the worst rest edge in 2023?
The San Francisco 49ers have the worst rest edge for the 2023 NFL season.
The 49ers have 20 fewer days of rest than their opponents.
Read more about which teams are helped & hurt most by the NFL schedule.
More NFL Schedule content: