We’re back for the final time with three more data-driven prop recommendations for the biggest betting holiday of the year – the Super Bowl…
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR CAM AKERS RUSHING ATTEMPTS
- Crowded backfield
- Relinquished clock-killing role
- SIS Projection: 14 rushing attempts
Cam Akers coming back early from his Achilles injury to lead the Rams in carries during the playoffs has been one of the best and most underappreciated stories of the team’s Super Bowl run.
However, Los Angeles will now welcome back their talented early-season starter, Darrell Henderson, into the mix and they could look to play the hot-hand or split carries among their three backs.
- 16.5 rushing attempts on BetMGM (-115)
Akers’s workload grew in each of his first three weeks since returning from injury, but saw it decline to a near-even split with Sony Michel in the Conference Championship after fumbling twice in the previous game.
Akers hasn’t been very efficient with his carries during the playoffs, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. Henderson was the team’s most efficient running back this season at 4.6 yards per carry and will be looking to challenge for a share of the carries.
Should the Rams be fortunate enough to run out the clock at the end of the game, we may see that duty fall to Michel after Akers’s recent struggles with ball security.
SIS still expects Akers to lead the team in carries, but our model projects him to finish with just 14 attempts.
SIS Projected Carry Distribution – Rams
| PLAYER | PROJECTED CARRIES SHARE | PROJECTED RUSH ATTEMPTS |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 52% | 14 |
| Sony Michel | 28% | 8 |
| Matthew Stafford | 10% | 3 |
| Darrell Henderson | 7% | 2 |
Additional tips: The sportsbooks are higher than we’d expect on Akers’s usage in this game. We’ve already seen his lines tick down from their opening numbers, which indicates books are taking action on the unders or reacting to Henderson’s return. We recommend playing this down to 15.5. Also consider playing Akers under 63.5 rushing yards and 81.5 rush+receiving yards.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE UNDER FOR TYLER BOYD LONG RECEPTION
- Low ADOT
- Secondary option in Bengals pass attack
Tyler Boyd has been a stable presence for the Bengals offense, catching over 70 passes in each of his four seasons, but he’s taken a backseat of late with the emergence of two young star receivers.
- 18.5 long reception on BetMGM (-115)
Boyd is almost always on the field for the Bengals offense that uses 11 personnel on 88% of their plays. However, his target share has been cut back down the stretch with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins stepping up into alpha roles. Since Week 15, Boyd ranks fifth out of five Bengals receivers in terms of Targets per Routes Run.
Bengals Targets per 100 Routes Run (Week 15-21, min. 100 routes)
| PLAYER | ROUTES RUN | TARGETS PER 100 ROUTES RUN |
|---|---|---|
| Ja’Marr Chase | 240 | 24 |
| Joe Mixon | 128 | 23 |
| Tee Higgins | 222 | 20 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 167 | 20 |
| Tyler Boyd | 217 | 14 |
SIS projects Boyd to see 15% of the Bengals target share in this game, which our projection model converts to four receptions for 39 yards.
On top of the target reduction, Boyd has seen just one pass come his way further than 10 yards downfield during the playoffs.
Over the course of the season, Boyd’s 7.7-yard ADOT ranked 84th among the 100-most targeted wide receivers. That average has dipped down significantly to 4.7 during the playoffs to go along with a longest reception of just 10 yards.
Additional tips: This number has been moving back-and-forth between 17.5 and 18.5. We recommend it either way – it’s nice to have the extra yard as a cushion, but you’ll get better odds at the lower number.
WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE OVER FOR COOPER KUPP RECEIVING YARDS
- Kupp’s track record
- Bengals vs Slot Receivers
- SIS Projection: 107 receiving yards
Putting the stats and numbers aside for a moment, it just seems impossible that Cooper Kupp won’t have one of his biggest games of the season in the Super Bowl. When you do look at the data behind the player and this matchup it adds an additional layer of confidence…
- 105.5 receiving yards on BetMGM (-115)
Kupp will have the biggest stage to close out one of the most productive receiving seasons in NFL history. The prop line is high but that’s nothing new for Kupp, who has proven the ability to beat any number. He’s gone over 100 yards in 13-of-20 games, including 8-of-11 since the injury to Robert Woods, and posted a combined 325 yards over his last two games.
Kupp has been the target on exactly one-third of the Rams’ passes this postseason, with consistently dominant target share outputs of 39%, 31%, and 33% in the three games
SIS projects Kupp for 32% of the team targets, which our model converts to nine receptions for 107 yards.
It’s no surprise to learn that Kupp does most of his damage from the slot – 83% of his routes were run out of the slot, resulting in 500 more yards than any other slot receiver during the regular season.
Kupp will put his technical mastery on display against a Bengals secondary that is slightly below average according to Pass Coverage Points Saved (ranked 19th). Even more problematic for the Bengals is that their biggest weakness has been guarding the slot, ranking dead-last with 137 yards per game allowed to slot receivers.
Most Receiving Yards per Game Allowed to Slot Receivers (2021)
| TEAM | YARDS PER GAME ALLOWED |
|---|---|
| Bengals | 137 |
| Vikings | 136 |
| Titans | 135 |
Additional tips: There are a lot worse ways to wager your money than pushing the chips forward on Cooper Kupp to have a big game. Take this number up to 109.5 and don’t be shy pulling the trigger on other correlated bets like Kupp to lead the game in receiving yards.Supe
