Welcome to the fantasy championship weekend!
Best of luck to all the fantasy managers vying for a fantasy football title.
Weather looks to be a factor in multiple games this week, but it’s difficult to predict how much or little each game will be affected by rain, so it is not factored heavily into this week’s selections.
Narratives about how hard teams will compete despite being eliminated from postseason competition are similarly not weighted heavily into start-sit decisions this week.
Week 17 Fantasy Football Starts:
| Week 17 Starts | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | Bucs |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | Titans |
| Jayden Reed | WR | Packers |
| Jordan Addison | WR | Vikings |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | Cowboys |
Week 17 Fantasy Football Sits:
| Week 17 Sits | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | QB | Lions |
| James Conner | RB | Cardinals |
| Amari Cooper | WR | Bills |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | Bills |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | Falcons |
Quarterback Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Baker Mayfield in Week 17
Despite a loss to the Cowboys last week, Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense should have plenty of offensive success against the Panthers, making Mayfield a safe Week 17 start.
The Panthers have surrendered a league-high 28 passing touchdowns entering the week, and opposing passers have scored the sixth most fantasy points against this defense this season.
There is hidden upside for Mayfield should the Panthers keep the game close
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 13.5 dropbacks in the second half of games in wins against the Panthers as opposed to 23.5 dropbacks in losses.
The Panthers defense ranks last allowing opposing offenses a 49.1% offensive play success rate, which supports the Buccaneers having the highest team total on the board in Week 17.
The Buccaneers should be able to run and pass with success this week, which provides Mayfield an opportunity to stack multiple passing touchdowns.
Sit Jared Goff in Week 17
Week 17 provides a difficult passing matchup for Goff, and there is potential for the Lions offense to look forward to a Week 18 matchup with the Vikings, which leaves the door open for Goff as a sit candidate.
Should the Vikings win on Sunday, the result of Lions/49ers becomes inconsequential as a Week 18 showdown with the Vikings would determine the conference champion.
Dan Campbell has stated that his team will show up to win regardless, which is likely true, but one year ago Sam LaPorta was injured playing meaningless snaps.
I do believe the starters will play, but it is in the range of outcomes that the Lions sit starters at some point on Monday.
If the Vikings lose, the 49ers defense still provides a difficult matchup for opposing fantasy quarterbacks, especially immobile quarterbacks like Goff.
The 49ers have allowed the fewest passing fantasy points per game this season, which makes this matchup difficult for Goff.
Running back Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Tyjae Spears in Week 17
Spears has been relegated to a game script dependent running back behind Tony Pollard, but Week 17 could provide Spears an opportunity without Pollard.
Pollard has not practiced this week as injuries continue to mount, providing a potential avenue for Spears to have the main role in the backfield.
Spears has found the endzone multiple times in each of his last two games, which has offset the limited volume.
Should Spears have a larger workload, the potential ceiling would be difficult to keep on the bench.
The Jaguars have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season as they have allowed success on the ground and in the passing game to running backs.
Sit James Conner in Week 17
Conner is trending to play on Saturday, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he should be in your fantasy lineup.
The combination of his injury status and the Cardinals' offensive line injuries provide risk for fantasy managers, making Conner a sit-candidate.
The Cardinals have been eliminated from the playoffs and placed both starting tackles on the IR this week, which would provide caution for fantasy gamers.
However, the biggest concern is Conner’s knee on less than a full week of rest.
Conner starting the game doesn’t necessarily mean that he will be at full usage or able to finish the game.
The injury will likely limit Conner’s effectiveness as well as the offensive line injuries, making him a volume dependent play, which is uncertain.
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Wide Receiver Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Jayden Reed in Week 17
Reed has been a better in best ball receiver this season, but the Vikings look like a great matchup on paper for the dynamic slot receiver, who is a Week 17 fantasy football start.
There is potential for Christian Watson to miss the game, which elevates Reed’s ceiling in terms of fantasy scoring.
The matchup against the Vikings is favorable for Reed. The Vikings funnel targets to slot receivers and allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers.
Reed matches up better against defenses that play more zone defense, and the Vikings are third in zone rate this season.
Should the Packers elevate their passing rate, Reed could provide a week-winning fantasy score, which outweighs his unstable fantasy floor this season.
Start Jordan Addison in Week 17
Addison has become a consistent target earner in his second season, and the Vikings are potentially facing a pass heavy game script against a Packers defense that has been stout against the run in recent weeks.
Addison has averaged 8.7 targets per game over the past six weeks, which provides a stable floor as a wide receiver.
He had some early season off-the-field issues, but those seem to be in the rear-view mirror as the 2023 first rounder has become a stable contributor to this Vikings passing offense.
Sit Amari Cooper & Khalil Shakir in Week 17
It is difficult to trust the Bills wide receivers in fantasy championship week.
Buffalo's receiver usage has been troublesome for fantasy gamers all season long, and Week 17 has multiple issues that imply this week won’t be more favorable.
First, the weather is a concern as wind and rain are both highly likely, which could limit the passing game. Multiple weather forecasts agree this is the worst weather game of the week.
Secondly, the Jets' pass defense has still provided some pushback to opposing wide receivers.
New York has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
Lastly, the Bills rotate their wide receivers, and it is unlikely the Bills buck that trend in a meaningless game, reducing the ceiling for all the pass catchers.
Despite Buffalo's offense consistently scoring points, the wide receivers carry too much risk for me this week and are best kept on the bench.
Tight End Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Jake Ferguson in Week 17
Should managers have multiple options at tight end this week, Ferguson is a floor-based start in Week 17 in the absence of CeeDee Lamb.
Cooper Rush facing this Eagles defense limits the fantasy ceiling, but Ferguson should be the primary target in the passing game.
In limited snaps with Lamb off the field, Ferguson has been targeted on 29.7% of his routes this season, which elevates his PPR floor.
Although Ferguson has not scored a touchdown this year, he had 23 red zone targets last season, which was double that of the next leading pass-catcher not named CeeDee Lamb.
Sit Kyle Pitts in Week 17
Pitts has been one of the most disappointing fantasy players based on predicted potential this season, and Week 17 is another week in which the former fifth-overall draft pick should remain on fantasy benches.
A change at quarterback did not change Pitts' outcome as he was limited to two targets, one of which he helped into the defender’s hands for an interception.
The juice is no longer worth the squeeze with Kyle Pitts in fantasy football.
