Divisional Showdown for Sunday night features the Buccaneers visiting the Saints. My thoughts for Showdown are below, and be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of Tampa Bay at New Orleans.

Injury news is shaping this slate, as Taysom Hill and Latavius Murray are not expected to play, making Alvin Kamara a stand-out play and raising Drew Brees’s floor. For Tampa Bay, Ronald Jones is a game-time decision which means Leonard Fournette gets the start but his workload is uncertain.

Given the injuries, the Saints’ offense will likely funnel more heavily through Kamara and Michael Thomas, and ownership will follow. This is a rare instance where a QB, Brees, will be less rostered than his weapons. Stacking CPT Brees with other pass-catchers like Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook will help differentiate. Tre’Quan Smith is returning from injured reserve but his price was left near the minimum, so he projects as a top value. Deonte Harris and Marquez Callaway are even more contrarian WRs to consider for MME.

Since the Buccaneers offense is more spread out, Tom Brady should command more ownership than his teammates. For this matchup, I would rank his WR in order of Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans. Evans has been smashing in recent weeks but has rarely produced in this matchup, and he’s the most expensive of the three. Scotty Miller is a WR4 dart-throw.

Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate are the TEs, with the latter coming on as of late and priced as a much better value. A build rule for negative correlation or at most one of them makes a lot of sense. With the RB situation, I’ll need to confirm Jones’s status before finalizing builds. If he is out, Fournette becomes a good value and Ke’Shawn Vaughn a viable dart-throw. If Jones is in, he is overpriced and would offer plenty of leverage if rostered. As always, I’ll update later with ownership information.

Ownership:

  • Kamara (19% CPT / 75% Total) will be the most rostered player. Thomas and Brady are the only other two projected over 10% CPT and over 55% Total.
  • Brees, Evans, Godwin, and Brown are all in the 6-9% range for CPT, with Brees projected for half of all lineups total and the WRs in the 33-44% range.
  • Smith (<1% CPT / <17% Total) seems too low. I expect it to be higher with people using optimizers, and think he is a great option to go over the field on if his ownership is anything close to these projections. I also like him for CPT, allowing you to fit most other top players in, but be sure to differentiate from the obvious optimal.
  • Brate is my favorite dart throw option, projected for under 11% total, but I wouldn’t use him at CPT.

DK Values:

  • Tre’Quan Smith ($400)
  • Ryan Succop ($3,400)
  • Cameron Brate ($2,000)

DK Leverage:

  • Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800)
  • Cameron Brate ($2,000)

DK Build Guide:

  • Max 1 DST
  • Max 1 K
  • Max 1 TE from each team
  • Max 1 RB from each team
  • Max 2 of Evans, Godwin, Brown
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT QB, force 2+ pass-catchers (or boost)
  • If CPT WR, force/boost QB
  • If CPT Kamara or Thomas, negative boost the other
  • Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky CPTs

FD Values:

  • Ryan Succop ($8,500)
  • Alvin Kamara ($14,500) – Top pt/$

FD Leverage:

  • Rob Gronkowski ($9,500)
  • Taysom Hill ($9,000)

FD Build Guide:

  • No K MVP
  • No TE at MVP
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • Max 1 QB (wins nearly 3x as often)
  • Max 1 TE from each team
  • Max 1 RB from each team
  • Max 2 of Evans, Godwin, Brown
  • If WR CPT, boost or force QB
  • If CPT Kamara or Thomas, negative boost the other
  • Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky MVPs