This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into this year's Iron Bowl as Auburn hopes to knock Alabama out of the playoff picture.
Alabama vs. Auburn, current line:
Alabama at Auburn Best Bet Prediction:
This looks like a brand new Auburn team since firing Hugh Freeze, so let's take Auburn against the spread and bet the over.
- Alabama vs. Auburn, best line: Auburn +6 and over 46.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Auburn +6 points
When Alabama is on Offense
Alabama runs a pass-heavy offense under Kalen DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb and will almost certainly lean heavily on quarterback Ty Simpson in this matchup.
Auburn boasts one of the nation’s top rushing defenses, and it’s hard to imagine Alabama having any consistent success on the ground in this game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 31st in yards before contact
- Auburn: ranked 4th in yards before contact allowed
- Alabama: ranked 122nd in yards after contact
- Auburn: ranked 9th in yards after contact allowed
The Tide have found success against certain defenses by forcing teams into light boxes, but that won’t faze Auburn.
With six or fewer defenders in the box, Auburn is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, the nation’s fourth-lowest rate.
So Alabama will need to lean on the passing game, but that won’t necessarily be easy either.
For Alabama to move the ball on offense, it will need to protect Simpson, and it should be a good battle in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 21st in pressure rate allowed
- Auburn: ranked 16th in pressure rate generated
The key to the game could be the health of Auburn’s star lineman Keldric Faulk, a potential top-10 NFL draft pick.
Faulk was injured last week against Mercer and did not return.
Interim head coach D.J. Durkin says Faulk is fine 一 which is plausible as it wouldn’t make sense to risk putting him back in against Mercer 一 but we won’t know for certain until we see him in action.
If Auburn can get pressure on Simpson, it can derail the Alabama offense.
Take a look at Simpson’s numbers with and without pressure, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Under pressure: 5.6 yards per attempt, ranked 92nd
- Kept clean: 9.2 yards per attempt, ranked 21st
With or without pressure, Simpson is going to take shots downfield as the deep passing game is the focal point of this Alabama offense.
Outside the red zone, 26% of Alabama attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield, and Simpson has completed 51% of those throws (ranked 21st).
Auburn’s downfield pass defense has not been as dominant as its pass rush, allowing a 37% completion rate at that depth, ranked 41st.
It’s also worth noting that starting slot corner Sylvester Smith will miss the first half of this game due to a targeting call last week.
That’s a devastating blow to the Auburn defense due to Alabama's tendency to line up its playmakers in the slot.
Leading receivers Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams have each received over half their targets while lined up in the slot this season.
Auburn’s secondary is also likely to be tested on some critical third-and-long situations.
The Tigers force opponents into third and long at the nation’s 24th-highest rate, and Alabama’s likely struggles in the run game mean there should be opportunities for Auburn to get off the field with some clutch third-down stops.
However, Alabama ranks a respectable 32nd in third-and-long conversion rate (26%), while Auburn's defense only ranks 109th (also at 26%).
Based on all of these numbers, it looks like we should expect a boom-or-bust day from the Tide offense.
Auburn certainly has the run defense and the pass rush to cause some problems, but the Tide are likely to hit some big plays in the passing game and could score quickly on some drives to make up for occasional struggles.
When Auburn is on Offense
If you haven’t watched Auburn since Hugh Freeze was shown the door, you might be in for a treat.
Derrick Nix has taken over the play calling, and it looks like a completely different unit now that they’re out from Freeze’s surprisingly conservative approach that plagued the Tigers earlier.
Nix has made Auburn a more pass-heavy offense during his two games at the helm of the offense.
According to Campus2Canton, Auburn’s pass rate was 0.2% below expected based on situation data under Freeze.
That rate has jumped to 2.0% above expected under Nix.
The most notable change to the offense, however, actually occurred during Feeze’s final game when Ashton Daniels, a transfer from Stanford, took over for Jackson Arnold at quarterback.
Arnold, a former five-star recruit who transferred in from Oklahoma, had the pedigree but couldn’t get out of his own way.
When facing pressure, Arnold took a sack 32% of the time, the nation’s second-worst rate, according to Sports Info Solutions.
And Freeze should have seen this coming, as Arnold had the sixth-worst rate (30%) last year at Oklahoma 一 almost double Daniels’ 15.6% rate for the Cardinal.
Daniels is also the better passer, by a wide margin.
Based on route-adjusted data, Daniels’ on-target rate was 12.1% above expected last season, the third-highest rate among power-conference quarterbacks behind only two NFL draft picks: Jaxson Dart and Will Howard.
Arnold ranked 46th out of 70 qualifiers at 0.1% below expected.
And on throws 10 or more yards downfield, Arnold’s completion rate of 32% ranked 143rd out of 147 in 2024 with the Sooners 一 Daniels wasn’t great, but his 45% (ranked 90th) was a step up.
Despite having plenty of talent at wide receiver in the form of superstar sophomore Cam Coleman and Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton, Arnold completed just 41% of his throws at that depth 一 Daniels is completing 53%.
So it shouldn’t come as much surprise that the combination of Daniels and Nix immediately took Auburn’s offense to new heights, scoring 38 points on Vandy in an overtime loss.
Last week against Mercer, Daniels took the day off in order to preserve his redshirt, but he will be back this week to appear in his fourth game of the season.
So can Auburn keep it rolling against Alabama?
One of the reasons for Auburn to be optimistic is the battle in the trenches.
Based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Auburn should be able to protect Daniels:
- Auburn: ranked 66th in pressure rate allowed
- Alabama: ranked 98th in pressure rate generated
Auburn leans on quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) at a high rate, which will make it almost impossible for the Tide to consistently get to Daniels.
Against Vandy, Daniels used a quick dropback 71% of the time, a huge leap from Arnold’s 51% rate under Freeze.
And Daniels was brilliant on those plays, completing 72% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt.
Alabama hasn’t faced a ton of teams that rely on quick dropbacks, so this will be a unique test 一 only eight defenses have faced fewer quick dropbacks all year.
Another critical factor in this game will be Auburn’s performance on RPOs, which has accounted for 36% of its offense this year (the eighth-highest rate) and 29% of its offense during Daniels’ last start against Vandy.
This is noteworthy because Alabama ranks 91st in yards per play allowed against RPOs (5.9), per Sports Info Solutions.
Auburn’s RPO game has been mediocre overall (5.6 yards per play, ranked 63rd), but the Tigers gashed Vanderbilt for 7.3 yards per play.
Vandy ranks 89th in yards per play allowed to RPOS, slightly ahead of Alabama, so it’s reasonable to believe a similar performance is possible.
Regardless of Auburn’s performance on RPOs, its running backs should have success on the ground based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Auburn: ranked 9th in yards before contact
- Alabama: ranked 112th in yards before contact allowed
- Auburn: ranked 29th in yards after contact
- Alabama: ranked 10th in yards after contact allowed
Even under Freeze, Auburn’s spread offense tended to create light boxes at a high rate (64% on the season), but it has reached another level with Nix calling plays.
Auburn running backs have faced six or fewer defenders in the box on 86% of their carries over the last two weeks.
If this trend continues, it sets a high floor for their production against a mediocre Alabama run defense, which ranks 46th in yards per attempt allowed with a light box (4.9).
Given the edge Auburn appears to have in both the pass and run game, it’s hard to imagine Alabama shutting down this Tigers offense entirely.
Expect Auburn to have enough firepower to move the ball and keep this game interesting.
Final Thoughts on Auburn vs. Alabama Best Bets
Put some faith in Auburn’s offensive turnaround. Bet Auburn against the spread and bet the over at 46.5 points.
Auburn smashed the over by 28 and 36 points in its two games since Freeze’s firing.
Although it’s a small sample size, there’s more than enough talent on Auburn’s offense to believe this turnaround is real and Freeze was just getting in the way.