This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a battle between ranked teams hoping to sneak into the ACC title game between Miami and Pittsburgh.
Miami vs. Pittsburgh, current line:
Miami at Pittsburgh Best Bet Prediction:
The Canes' defense is likely to overpower Pitt, so let’s take Miami against the spread.
- Miami vs. Pittsburgh, best line: Miami -6.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Miami -6.5 points
When Miami is on Offense
Miami leans on its passing attack under coordinator Shannon Dawson, and will likely hold an edge in that area in this matchup.
The Hurricanes have one of the nation’s best offensive lines 一 a staple of Mario Cristobal teams 一 and should dominate Pitt in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Miami: ranked 1st in pressure rate allowed
- Pitt: ranked 43rd in pressure rate generated
Miami could be vulnerable to certain pass-rush units due to Carson Beck’s immobility and tendency to take traditional dropbacks, but Pitt is unlikely to take advantage of that potential weakness.
Take a look at Pitt’s numbers against traditional dropbacks:
- 44% pressure rate, ranked 46th
- 8.1 yards per attempt, ranked 87th
Pitt’s lack of consistent pressure is particularly concerning given how often it unleashes the blitz.
Defensive coordinator Randy Bates dials up the blitz 37% of the time, the nation’s 14th-highest mark, but the Panthers only rank 73rd in pressure rate generated off the blitz.
No amount of blitzing is likely to cause problems for Miami’s offensive line, as the Canes lead the nation in pressure rate allowed against the blitz at just 22%.
Since Pitt is unlikely to generate pressure, expect Beck to have a big day.
When he’s kept clean, Beck is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt (ranked 30th in the FBS) with a 77% completion rate (ranked 11th).
Pitt’s secondary is also unlikely to step up and cause too many problems for the Canes.
The Panthers' downfield pass defense has been rough.
Outside the red zone, Pitt is allowing a 47% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards, ranked 104th.
Although the downfield passing attack is not a huge part of the Miami offense, Beck has been efficient when he does attack with the deep ball, completing 51% of his passes at that depth (ranked 15th), per Sports Info Solutions.
On a positive note for the Panthers, they will have an edge in the run game, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Miami: ranked 80th in yards before contact
- Pitt: ranked 22nd in yards before contact allowed
- Miami: ranked 77th in yards after contact
- Pitt: ranked 4th in yards after contact allowed
Fortunately for Miami, leading rushing Mark Fletcher Jr. returned to the field last week after missing time due to an injury.
The 225-pound Fletcher should be effective enough for Miami to get some production out of its rushing attack, especially if it builds an early lead and wants to bleed the clock down the stretch.
When Pittsburgh is on Offense
Pitt runs a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense under coordinator Kade Bell, but it runs into its most difficult test of the season against this Miami defense.
According to Campus2Canton, Pitt throws the ball at a rate 11.5% above expected based on situational data, the second-highest rate in the ACC.
Bell’s offense also runs a play once every 25 seconds, the 28th-fastest pace in the FBS.
Although Pitt’s fast-paced offense can expose weaker defenses like Georgia Tech, it will likely struggle against Miami’s pass rush.
Check out the pass-protection battle based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Pitt: ranked 127th in pressure rate allowed
- Miami: ranked 4th in pressure rate generated
When we last saw Pitt face a competent pass rush against Notre Dame, true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel looked overwhelmed, completing less than 50% of his passes while taking 4 sacks.
Since taking over as Pitt’s starter in Week 6, Heintschel’s 26 sacks are the second most in the nation.
Despite Miami’s ability to generate pressure, the Canes struggle to consistently finish off those pressures and only rank 83rd in sack conversion rate.
So maybe Pitt has a chance 一 but then again, Georgia Tech ranked 128th by that metric entering last week’s game and still sacked Heintschel 6 times.
When Heintschel does have time to throw, expect him to aggressively attack downfield against a banged-up Miami secondary.
The Canes will be without starting nickel cornerback Keionte Scott, who has been one of the best playmakers on the team this year.
Starting safety Jakobe Thomas was also knocked out of last week’s game and, while he is hoping to play this week, may not be at full strength.
Outside the red zone, Pitt throws 15 or more yards downfield 25% of the time (average is 23%), and Heintschel is completing 56% of those throws (ranked eighth).
Although getting off the throw is a challenge due to the pass rush, Miami’s secondary has been somewhat vulnerable to downfield throws, ranking 47th in completion rate allowed.
Unfortunately for Pitt, pivoting to a run-heavy game plan probably won’t work out due to Miami’s strong defensive front.
Take a look at the run-game matchup based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Pitt: ranked 55th in yards before contact
- Miami: ranked 33rd in yards before contact allowed
- Pitt: ranked 121st in yards after contact
- Miami: ranked 28th in yards after contact allowed
Since Pitt leans on a spread offense, its ball carriers primarily see light boxes, but Miami still gets contact on the ball carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage 44% of the time with a light box.
This trend is concerning for Pitt, which has an explosive backfield back lacks ball carriers who can fight through contact.
Starting running back Desmond Reid (who is dealing with an injury) averages a pathetic -0.3 yards per attempt when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, while his backup Ja’Kyrian Turner averages just 0.6 yards per attempt (FBS average is 1.7).
So if Pitt can’t run the ball and Heintschel is taking sacks, the Panthers are likely to find themselves in some tough down-and-distance situations.
That's bad news for a Pitt offense ranked 112th in third-and-long conversion rate, while Miami’s defense ranks 11th.
Final Thoughts on Pitt vs. Miami Best Bets
It’s tough to find an area where Pitt has a meaningful advantage, so bet on Miami to cover the spread.
With that said, I’ll always add this caveat when recommending Miami: Mario Cristobal is elite at finding ways to lose games.
Few coaches are as bad at managing critical decisions as Cristobal, and he is frequently to blame for his team snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
So while there’s no reason for this game to be competitive, proceed with caution where Cristobal is involved.