This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a game between Big Ten playoff hopefuls as Oregon pays a visit to Iowa.
Oregon vs. Iowa, current line:
Oregon at Iowa Best Bet Prediction:
Iowa probably doesn’t have enough offense to keep up, so let’s bet Oregon against the spread.
- Oregon vs. Iowa, best line: Oregon -6
» Bet it now at Novig: Oregon -6.5 points
When Oregon is on Offense
Oregon is running a balanced offense under coordinator Will Stein this year, which is perhaps a reflection of limited trust in quarterback Dante Moore.
Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, check out the Ducks’ pass rate during Stein’s three years with the program and how it has shifted with his quarterbacks:
- 2023 with Bo Nix: 11.7% above expected
- 2024 with Dillon Gabriel: 7.8% above expected
- 2025 with Dante Moore: 0.9% above expected
You might have expected confidence in Moore to rise as the season goes on, especially after he looked solid in a tough environment at Penn State.
However, since that win in State College, the pass rate has been 0.4% below expected.
Fortunately for the Ducks, they have the rushing attack to justify the more conservative approach and have dominated teams on the ground.
Oregon running backs are gaining 107.5 more yards per game than their opponents are allowing against others, easily the best mark in the nation.
So let’s check out what this matchup looks like in the trenches based on some opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 2nd in yards before contact
- Iowa: ranked 16th in yards before contact allowed
- Oregon: ranked 3rd in yards after contact
- Iowa: ranked 30th in yards after contact allowed
Oregon also uses a balanced rushing attack in terms of tight versus spread formations, which gives the Ducks the flexibility to adjust the rushing attack based on their opponent's weaknesses.
Iowa, however, has a versatile defense that can defend various schemes.
Check out the Hawkeyes' run defense based on box type based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Light box: 4.1 yards per attempt, ranked 20th
- Stacked box: 3.3 yards per attempt, ranked 17th
If the Hawkeyes have a weakness against the run, it might be defending the run out of RPOs.
According to Sports Info Solutions, 37% of Oregon’s rush attempts have come from RPOs, the highest rate of Iowa's opponents to date.
And when defending against the run game out of RPOs, Iowa is allowing 5.1 yards per attempt, ranked 71st.
Indiana exploited this weakness most effectively, with 9 carries for 73 yards off RPOs.
Penn State had success, as well (16 attempts for 73 yards).
If Iowa contains the run, Oregon should be able to pivot to a more pass-heavy scheme and have success due to its ability to protect Moore.
Check out the pass protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 32nd in pressure rate allowed
- Iowa: ranked 72nd in pressure rate generated
Even when Iowa forces Oregon into obvious passing downs and Moore needs to take a traditional dropback, the Hawkeyes are likely to struggle to disrupt his rhythm with any consistency.
Against traditional dropbacks, Iowa ranks 115th in pressure rate generated.
The deep passing attack has been a critical part of the Ducks' offense, and if Iowa can’t consistently generate pressure, Moore should have success throwing downfield.
According to Sports Info Solutions, 26% of Oregon’s passes outside the red zone have been 15 or more yards downfield, the 26th-highest rate.
Moore is completing 59% of those throws, ranked sixth, with a 73% on-target rate, ranked second.
Although Iowa’s pass rush will give Moore time to throw downfield, beating the Hawkeye secondary isn’t as easy.
Iowa ranks seventh in the nation in downfield completion rate allowed.
There’s also the ever-present risk of an interception when attacking the Hawkeyes’ secondary, and their production is no fluke.
Iowa ranks 10th in the country in ball-hawk rate, making a play on the ball on 16% of all attempts.
On throws of 10 or more yards, Iowa ranks fifth with a 28% ball-hawk rate.
In addition to the interceptions, Oregon should also be concerned about its performance on early downs.
The Ducks only rank 62nd in third-and-long avoidance.
Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Indiana have all forced the Ducks into third-and-long on at least 20% of their sets of downs.
Iowa’s defense only ranks 54th by the same metric, but Penn State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin all rank outside the top 80 and still had success slowing down the Ducks.
Oregon has survived despite those struggles due to an impressive 28% conversion rate on third-and-long (ranked 24th), but Iowa poses a new challenge.
The Hawkeyes have only allowed seven third-and-long conversions this year and have the nation’s second-best conversion rate at 9.8%.
When Iowa is on Offense
Iowa is well known for its conservative, run-heavy offense led by coordinator Tim Lester, in his second year with the program.
Although Lester has been an upgrade over the historically inept Brian Ferentz, the slow, downhill running style of the entire Kirk Ferentz era remains.
According to Campus2Canton, Iowa runs the ball at a rate 4.6% above expected based on situational data.
Iowa also maintains the nation’s eighth-slowest pace.
As has always been the case under Ferentz, Iowa actively tries not to score (or at least, not too fast).
Ferentz wants to maintain long drives to bleed the clock and shorten the game.
As a result, his team ranks 120th in explosive play rate.
So against this Oregon defense, which leads the nation in explosive play rate allowed, don’t expect any fireworks from this Iowa offense.
Ferentz’s game plan tends to work against most of the Big Ten, but this Oregon defense will pose a challenge as it's one of the few matchups in which Iowa does not have an edge in the run game.
Check out the run game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Iowa: ranked 82nd in yards before contact
- Oregon: ranked 39th in yards before contact allowed
- Iowa: ranked 36th in yards after contact
- Oregon: ranked 26th in yards after contact allowed
Since Iowa runs the ball out of heavy formations, we should also look at how these teams compare with seven or more defenders in the box:
- Iowa: 1.4 yards before contact, ranked 75th
- Oregon: 1.0 yards before contact allowed, ranked 26th
- Iowa: 4.6 yards per attempt, ranked 53rd
- Oregon: 3.3 yards per attempt, ranked 18th
If Oregon can put Iowa into a more pass-heavy approach by containing the run or building a lead, Iowa is in serious trouble.
On a positive note for the Hawkeyes, they protect quarterback Mark Gronowski well, but this matchup will be a challenge, as demonstrated by these opponent-adjusted numbers:
- Iowa: ranked 7th in pressure rate allowed
- Oregon: ranked 3rd in pressure rate generated
Iowa also handles traditional dropbacks well (ranked 20th in pressure rate allowed) and should be able to protect Gronowski in obvious passing situations.
Gronwoski, however, has been wildly disappointing as a passer in his first season with the Hawkeyes after transferring from South Dakota State.
On traditional dropbacks, which are most common on clear passing downs, the Hawkeyes are averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt, ranked 131st.
So, as you might expect, Iowa is inept on third-and-long, converting a pitiful 9.6% of attempts.
That might be a problem against a Tosh Lupoi defense that is forcing third-and-longs 32% of the time, the nation’s fifth-highest rate.
Final Thoughts on Iowa vs. Oregon Best Bets
It’s difficult to imagine Iowa’s offense putting up enough points to cover this spread, so let’s lay the points and take Oregon against the spread.
Even if Iowa mostly contains Oregon, one or two big plays should be enough to put Iowa on its heels and allow the Ducks to pull away.