This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Time to check out a SEC clash between disappointing offenses as Florida hosts Texas on Saturday afternoon.
Texas vs. Florida, current line:
Texas at Florida Best Bet Prediction:
Florida has its back against the wall and might show some fight in a last-ditch effort to save Billy Napier‘s job, but the Gators offense has been inept and likely can't do much, so let's lay the points and take Texas against the spread, but shop around for the best line (it's available at 4.5).
- Texas vs. Florida, best line: Texas -4.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Texas -5.5 points
When Texas is on Offense
Texas has relied on a balanced offensive attack this season, with a pass rate 0.7% below expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.
That’s a shift from last year’s rate of 6.7% above expected and potentially a reflection of wavering confidence in Arch Manning.
There is growing concern about Manning’s ability to lead this offense at a high level due to his wildly inaccurate passing performance through his first four starts of the year.
According to Sports Info Solutions, only 77.5% of Manning’s throws have been catchable, ranked 121st out of 135 qualified passers.
A year ago, Quinn Ewers ranked 20th by the same metric.
This is a concerning trend, but somewhat predictable based on the small sample size we saw from Manning a season ago.
Based on route-adjusted data in 2024, Manning produced an on-target rate 2.6% below expected 一 well below Ewers (5.3% above average), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Another concern is Manning’s performance against the blitz.
When the defense brings five or more pass rushers, Manning has generated positive EPA on just 34% of his snaps, easily the lowest rate in the SEC (no one else is below 40%).
Fortunately for Texas, this might not be a weakness Florida can exploit.
In three games against FBS opponents, the Gators have blitzed just eight times 一 an 8.0% blitz rate which ranks dead last in the country, per Sports Info Solutions.
The lack of a blitz is a bizarre choice by Florida defensive coordinator Ron Roberts, as the Gators do not appear to have the talent to create consistent pressure when bringing just four pass rushers.
Florida ranks 88th in pressure rate generated on non-blitzes (26%), but that doesn’t mean all hope is lost for the Gators’ pass rush.
Check out the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 94th in pressure rate allowed
- Florida: ranked 50th in pressure rate generated
When Manning has time to throw, Texas likes to take shots downfield.
34% of the Longhorns' passes outside the red zone have been 15 or more yards downfield.
Florida’s stingy pass defense should hold up well to this style offense, as the Gators are allowing a 27% completion rate at that depth, ranked 10th in the nation.
The Texas offensive line has also been inconsistent in the run game, but the Longhorns should still hold an edge in that area based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 69th in yards before contact
- Florida: ranked 129th in yards before contact allowed
Unfortunately for Texas, it might be without both leading ball carriers.
CJ Baxter is doubtful, and Tre Wisner is questionable on the injury report.
Both ball carriers were out in the last game against Sam Houston State, which forced Jerrick Gibson into a starting role with Christian Clark seeing action as well.
Although neither running back has accomplished much yet, there are high hopes for Gibson, a true sophomore who was the third-ranked running back prospect in the 2024 recruiting class.
Texas’ spread offense should help Gibson find room to run against the Gators, as Longhorn running backs have faced a stacked box on just 34% of attempts (FBS average: 45%).
Florida has a decent run defense, but is playing without its best interior lineman, Caleb Banks, who remains out due to injury.
According to Sports Info Solutions, the Gators are allowing 2.7 yards before contact with a light box, ranked 52nd, so there should be some open running lanes for Gibson and Clark.
When Florida is on Offense
Florida has leaned on a pass heavy but conservative approach on offense this season under head coach and play caller Billy Napier.
According to Campus2Canton, Florida’s pass rate is 7.6% above expected based on situational data, the highest rate it's been during Napier’s tenure in Gainesville.
However, quarterback DJ Lagway has primarily been attacking defenses on underneath routes and rarely throwing downfield.
Outside the red zone, only 15% of Florida’s pass attempts have been 15 or more yards downfield (ranked 130th), while 55% have been five or fewer yards downfield (ranked 21st), per Sports Info Solutions.
The quick passing attack is likely a reflection of a lack of confidence in Lagway, who struggles when asked to stand in the pocket.
When taking a traditional dropback of three or more steps, Lagway is averaging a pitiful 3.9 yards per attempt, ranked 126th out of 130 qualified passers.
So Florida is likely to continue attacking underneath and getting the ball out quickly, though that is unlikely to work against this stingy Longhorns’ defense.
Check out how these units compare on throws five or fewer yards downfield, per Sports Info Solutions:
- Florida: 5.1 yards per attempt, ranked 73rd
- Florida: 6.1 yards per completion, ranked 91st
- Texas: 3.6 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 10th
- Texas: 4.7 yards per completion allowed, ranked 5th
The outlook for Florida’s passing attack doesn’t look great, but it looks even worse in the run game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers:
- Florida: ranked 50th in yards before contact
- Texas: ranked 2nd in yards before contact
One reason for Florida’s struggles in the run game has been its ball carriers facing stacked boxes on 62% of attempts, the nation’s 21st-highest rate.
That trend is unlikely to change anytime soon, even if Florida adjusts its formations, due to the lack of respect for Lagway and the deep passing game.
And that’s bad news against a Texas defense that is allowing 0.7 yards before contact with a stacked box (ranked 16th) and 2.2 yards per attempt (ranked seventh), per Sports Info Solutions.
The Gators' inability to run the ball consistently has led to tough down-and-distance situations, and Lagway lacks the passing prowess to navigate those situations.
Florida has faced third-and-long on 23.5% of its sets of downs, ranked 81st.
The Texas defense ranks third by the same metric, forcing third-and-longs 39% of the time.
And when faced with a third-and-long, the Gators have converted just 1 of 23 opportunities, a 4.3% conversion rate which ranks 134th.
Facing a disadvantage in both the run and passing games, this is likely to be a long day for Napier’s offense.
Final Thoughts on Florida vs. Texas Best Bets
Concerns for Manning and the Longhorns offense are valid, but it shouldn’t take too many points to put away the Gators 一 lay the points and take Texas against the spread at -4.5 points.
Florida’s offense barely has a pulse this year, so if the Longhorns can just protect the football, they should be able to slowly pull away and cruise to an easy win.