This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a battle of ranked Big Ten opponents as USC pays a visit to Illinois.
USC vs. Illinois, current line:
USC at Illinois Best Bet Prediction:
Expect the Trojans to treat this Illinois defense much the same way Indiana did 一 take USC against the spread.
- USC vs Illinois, current line: USC -6.5
When USC is on Offense
USC runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach and play caller Lincoln Riley, which is bad news for this Illinois defense.
Just last week, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza lit up the Illini secondary, completing 21 of 23 attempts for 267 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Indiana’s evisceration of the Illini was not a shock.
Just two weeks prior, they allowed 7.0 yards per play to Duke 一 Illinois only won the game thanks to 5 Duke turnovers.
If you think this was just a fluke 一 after all, Illinois won 10 games a year ago 一 take a closer look at that 2024 schedule.
Last year’s Illinois squad faced just one opponent ranked in the top 60 of passing offense, and they got smacked 38-9 in that contest against Oregon while giving up over 500 yards of offense.
And despite that gift of a schedule, Illinois still somehow managed to rank 78th in passing defense.
On a positive note for Illinois, defensive back Jaheim Clarke is expected to make his season debut.
Safety Miles Scott, who was ejected in the first half for targeting last week, also returns, so the Illinois secondary will be closer to full strength.
Starting cornerback Xavier Scott remains out with an injury, however.
USC quarterback Jayden Maiava should have no issues carving up this Illinois defense, especially since Illinois struggles to generate pressure.
Check out these numbers from Sports Info Solutions on the pass protection matchup:
- USC: ranked 32nd in pressure rate allowed
- Illinois: ranked 100th in pressure rate generated
USC’s tendency to attack underneath and let its receivers make plays after the catch is also problematic for the Illini defense 一 48% of the Trojans’ throws are five or fewer yards downfield.
Take a look at these numbers on throws five or fewer yards downfield, via Sports Info Solutions:
- USC: 8.5 yards per attempt, ranked fourth
- Illinois: 7.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 124th
Riley’s spread offense is also beneficial to the run game as it creates plenty of light boxes and open running lanes.
USC running backs have gained 3.4 yards before contact per attempt this year, ranked 14th.
Illinois’ defense has 2.6 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 103rd.
Light boxes have been particularly problematic for the Illini, as they’re allowing 6.2 yards per attempt with six or fewer men in the box (ranked 107th), while USC’s offense is gaining 9.0 yards per attempt (ranked fourth), per Sports Info Solutions.
This should be a breakout game for Trojans running back Waymond Jordan, a former JUCO transfer in his first year as a starter at USC.
When Illinois is on Offense
Illinois is running a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Barry Lunney Jr, a slight shift from last year’s approach, likely due to increased confidence in experienced quarterback Luke Altmyer.
Altmyer is a capable quarterback, but he needs protection from his offensive line to be effective.
So far this year, Altmyer has taken a sack on 39% of his dropbacks versus pressure, the second-worst rate among power conference quarterbacks.
This is especially concerning against USC, which appears to have rebuilt its defense under coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who is in his second year on the job.
Lynn previously built a dominant pass-rush unit at UCLA while coaching under Chip Kelly, and it looks like he’s done it again across town.
Take a look at the pass-protection battle based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Illinois: ranked 82nd in pressure rate allowed
- USC: ranked 11th in pressure rate generated
Perhaps more importantly, USC has been dominant without the use of a blitz, generating a 43% pressure rate on non-blitzes, the sixth-best rate among power conference defenses.
The Trojan secondary, led by standout safety Kamari Ramsey, has looked strong this year as well, allowing just 6.4 yards per attempt when the pass rush fails to generate pressure (ranked 29th).
Altmyer will be the best quarterback the Trojans have faced, however, and he is completing a strong 59% of his throws at 10 or more yards downfield, so this could be the game in which we learn if USC’s improved defense is the real deal.
In the run game, Illinois should be able to have some success as it appears to be a more balanced matchup based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Illinois: 1.7 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 89th
- USC: 1.8 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 58th
Although USC’s ranking is stronger by that metric, Illinois has played some competent defenses (Indiana, Duke), so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison at this point.
Illinois tends to lean on heavier formations, and USC may not be able to match the Illini’s physicality in the trenches.
When lined up with a stacked box, USC is allowing 2.1 yards before contact (ranked 91st) and 4.3 yards per attempt (ranked 62nd).
So the Illini’s best chance in this contest might be to lean on Kaden Feagin and Aidan Laughery in an effort to control the game on the ground.
Final Thoughts on Illinois vs. USC Best Bets
Illinois’ 10-win season a year ago was fool’s gold, and it's still living off that unearned reputation 一 lay the points and take the Trojans.
It’s difficult to imagine the Illini defense putting up enough resistance to keep this game close.