This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s break down a battle of ranked SEC foes as Alabama seeks revenge against Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama, current line:
Vanderbilt at Alabama Best Bet Prediction:
Vandy probably doesn't have the defense to compete two years in a row, so let's lay the points and take Alabama against the spread.
- Vanderbilt vs. Alabama, current line: Alabama -10.5
» Bet it now: Alabama -10.5 points
When Vanderbilt is on Offense
Vanderbilt runs a pass-heavy offense with a pass rate 5.7% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton.
This pass-centric offense is a shift from last year, when Vandy’s pass rate was 6.8% below expected on the season and 14% below expected during its upset of Alabama.
Despite throwing the ball more this year, Vanderbilt still leans on a bleed-the-clock approach to offense, ranking 131st in pace of play, identical to its ranking in 2024.
That strategy worked well against Alabama last year, and we can probably expect a more run-heavy approach in this matchup for that reason.
In last year’s contest, Vandy was able to control the ball for just over 42 minutes, and the Commodores will need to dominate on the ground to replicate that performance.
Let’s take a look at the run game matchup based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Vanderbilt: ranked 6th in yards before contact
- Alabama: ranked 28th in yards before contact allowed
- Vanderbilt: ranked 87th in yards after contact
- Alabama: ranked 17th in yards after contact allowed
Is it possible Vanderbilt’s offensive line actually has an edge over Alabama’s defensive front, as those yards-before-contact numbers indicate?
Personally, I’m skeptical 一 Vandy ranked 130th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact gained last year.
The Commodores did add three transfers to the offensive line, but Vanderbilt is obviously not getting the picks of the litter in the portal.
Although it’s fair to say Vandy’s offensive line has improved, it’s not likely to remain a top-10 unit in the run game.
Against Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt running backs averaged a wildly unsustainable 7.5 yards before contact per attempt, which is skewing the early-season numbers.
That said, Alabama is struggling to generate early contact in the run game.
The Tide have contacted opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 39% of attempts, ranked 75th.
So Vanderbilt might be able to move the ball enough to sustain some long drives, similar to last year’s performance.
Of course, we can’t talk about Vandy’s run game without addressing the mobility of quarterback Diego Pavia, who leads the team with 308 rushing yards (excluding sacks).
Pavia should find room to run against this Alabama defense based on these opponent-adjusted quarterback rushing stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- Pavia: ranked 29th (20% above expected)
- Alabama: ranked 59th (6.7% below expected)
Excluding sacks, Pavia had 19 carries for 57 yards in last year’s meeting.
In the passing game, Vanderbilt’s offensive line once again appears to match up well with Alabama based on these opponent-adjusted numbers:
- Vanderbilt: ranked 54th in pressure rate allowed
- Alabama: ranked 60th in pressure rate generated
Although Pavia occasionally creates pressure by holding the ball too long, he has a strong sense of timing and still manages to avoid sacks.
Pavia took a sack on just 12% of his dropbacks versus pressure last year (ranked 20th), and his 6.7% rate ranks 13th this season, according to Sports Info Solutions.
All of these numbers indicate Vanderbilt has the potential for success against the Tide defense, but what happens if Vanderbilt has to play from behind?
In 2024, Pavia ranked 102nd in completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield (43%).
He’s improved this year (51%), but the level of competition is likely a factor.
Against South Carolina, the only competent defense Vandy has faced, Pavia was 3 for 9 with an interception on throws of 10 or more yards.
Vandy’s passing game thrives on underneath routes, as it leads the nation in yards per attempt on throws of five or fewer yards downfield (9.0), per Sports Info Solutions.
However, that’s also an area where the Alabama defense has been strong, allowing just 4.0 yards per attempt (ranked 20th) and 5.0 yards per completion (ranked 11th).
So while there is a path to success for the Vanderbilt offense in this game, it is critical that the Commodores stay close throughout.
If Alabama builds a lead that forces Vandy to lean more on the passing attack, this game could get out of hand due to Pavia’s lack of downfield success.
When Alabama is on Offense
Alabama leans on a pass-heavy approach under coordinator Ryan Grubb, in his first year with the program.
Grubb has turned Alabama into more of a passing team this season, as evidenced by this situational data from Campus2Canton:
- 2024: 1.1% above expected
- 2025: 9.0% above expected
There’s no reason to think Vanderbilt’s defense will pose any problems for Alabama in this matchup, primarily due to its lack of pass rush.
Check out the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 32nd in pressure rate allowed
- Vanderbilt: ranked 97th in pressure rate generated
Vandy’s defense is led by first-year coordinator Steve Gregory, who is only in his second year back in the college game after spending most of his coaching career as a defensive assistant in the NFL.
Head coach Clark Lea called plays for the defense last year, but handed the duties off to Gregory this offseason.
This will be Gregory’s first test against a capable SEC offense (South Carolina doesn't count, as LaNorris Sellers was knocked out of that game due to injury).
The best offense Vanderbilt has faced to date is probably Utah State, which put 35 points on the board last week while averaging 6.2 yards per play.
Despite the victory in last year’s meeting, Vandy’s defense was completely helpless against Alabama as the Tide averaged 8.8 yards per play 一 it was Vanderbilt’s ability to bleed the clock on offense that led to the victory.
Alabama’s starting quarterback in last year’s game, Jalen Milroe, also helped Vandy considerably, throwing a pick-six in the first quarter and fumbling late in the game, leading to another Vanderbilt touchdown.
Ty Simpson has been a substantial upgrade over Milroe and should have little trouble picking apart this Vanderbilt secondary.
We caught a glimpse of what Vandy’s defense looks like against a competent quarterback against South Carolina, when Sellers was 6 for 7 for 94 yards (13.4 yards per attempt) before his injury.
Expect Simpson to take some shots downfield early in his game in an effort to build an early lead.
Outside the red zone, Alabama has thrown at least 15 yards downfield on 25% of attempts while completing 55% of those throws, according to Sports Info Solutions.
That’s bad news for a Vanderbilt secondary that has allowed a 55% completion rate at that depth, ranked 119th.
Although Bama wants to throw the ball, the run game will be a factor as well because the Tide offense needs to sustain some drives in an effort to give the defense a breather.
This shouldn’t be a problem, as Alabama’s spread offense is likely to create problems for the Commodores defense.
Tide running backs have faced a light box on 57% of attempts this year, which has been a weakness of the Vandy defense.
Check out how these teams stack up when the defense lines up with six or fewer defenders in the box, per Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: 4.8 yards per attempt, ranked 80th
- Vanderbilt: 6.1 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 99th
Although Alabama hasn’t been great, starting running back Jam Miller returned from injury just last week against Georgia, so improvement is expected.
Final Thoughts on Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Best Bets
Trust Kalen DeBoer to have his team prepared for revenge and take Alabama against the spread.
DeBoer has some bad losses on his résumé, but he consistently gets his team prepared for big games.
When facing ranked opponents as a head coach, DeBoer is 16-3 and has never lost at home.
Last year’s game against Vanderbilt snowballed on Alabama due to Milroe’s turnovers, but this squad appears better prepared to build an early lead and control the game.