Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction: Week 14 Best Bet from Warren Sharp

Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.

Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.

He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:

  • 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
  • 23-5 (82%) in 2021
  • 28-9 (76%) in 2020

Warren is 44-20 (69%) on sides and totals over the last seven weeks and 48-16 (75%) on elevated plays.

A $100 bettor would be up $7,716 based on Warren’s recommendations for the 2023 NFL season.

Chargers vs. Broncos Week 14 Betting Preview & Recommendation

123 Denver Broncos +3 (buy 0.5) -120 (0.75 units)

In their last 8 games (since 2019) vs. the Chargers, the Broncos have lost by more than 3 points just one time.

This year, the Chargers have played six offenses that rank average or better.

They are 1-5 in those games with the lone win coming in Week 3 by 4 points against the Vikings.

This summer, the line for this game was Broncos +3.5. Denver was supposed to finish behind the Chargers in the AFC West, and LA was supposed to win 9.5 games in the win total market.

The Chargers sit as a worse team with a worse record.

And yet, this line still sits at 3 points despite the Chargers having virtually no home field advantage.

I was on the Broncos last week as they finally were able to play a below-average defense of the Texans for the first time since Week 4.

Despite the Broncos losing the turnover battle 3-0…

And despite the Broncos going 0-of-11 on third down…

Denver had 1st and goal at the 8-yard line with 30 seconds left to win the game.

I would gladly make that bet over and over again because the odds that the Broncos lose the turnover battle 3-0 AND go 0-of-11 on third down are extremely low.

And without either of those happening, they win the game. They nearly won the game even with both happening.

Being ultra critical, the one thing that I may not have accounted for enough was the health and improvement of the Texans defense.

While they ranked #21 on the season, they are in a far better place now than they were.

S Jimmie Ward was out for a month before returning vs. the Broncos and recorded 1 interception and 1 pass defended.

CB Derek Stingley Jr. had been out for two months before returning in late November. He recorded two interceptions and 4 passes defended. The secondary play certainly was vastly improved.

We don’t have that same issue with the Chargers this week.

The Chargers rank #29 vs. the pass. The Broncos have played just one defense worse than the Chargers vs. the pass (Washington back in Week 2 when they put up 33 points).

The Chargers defense has also had the privilege of facing Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson, and Bailey Zappe in a rainstorm in 3 of their last 6 games. The Chargers defense is also without Joey Bosa.

After playing top-14 pass defenses for 8 straight weeks followed by an improved Texans pass defense, facing the #29 Chargers pass defense will allow Denver the ability to get back into the game should they fall behind, as they did last week vs. the Texans.

But one of the biggest factors in this game that I think plays in the Broncos’ favor is the fact the Chargers are unlikely to attack the biggest weakness of the Broncos, and that is their run defense.

Denver’s run defense is the worst in the NFL. And they allow explosive runs at the NFL’s highest rate.

Fortunately for them, the Chargers rushing attack is producing explosive gains at the lowest rate in the NFL.

Even against weak run defenses of the Packers and Ravens before facing the Patriots, Austin Ekeler did not have success running the ball.

If he struggles, Justin Herbert will be dropping back to pass repeatedly, and that can spell trouble vs. a Broncos pass defense that sacked C.J. Stroud 5 times last week.

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