Bengals vs. Colts Prediction: Week 14 Best Bet from Warren Sharp

Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.

Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.

He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:

  • 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
  • 23-5 (82%) in 2021
  • 28-9 (76%) in 2020

Warren is 44-20 (69%) on sides and totals over the last seven weeks and 48-16 (75%) on elevated plays.

A $100 bettor would be up $7,716 based on Warren’s recommendations for the 2023 NFL season.

Bengals vs. Colts Week 14 Betting Preview & Recommendation

115 Indianapolis Colts Over 41 -118 (buy 0.5) (1 unit)

The Cincinnati Bengals offense has played the NFL’s #1 toughest schedule of defenses this season.

They are off of playing three straight games vs. top-10 defenses of the Ravens, Steelers, and Jaguars.

In their first 12 games this season, the Bengals have played 10 top-15 defenses.

The lone defenses that ranked average or worse saw final scores of:

  • 34-20 win over the Cardinals (54 points)
  • 30-27 loss to the Texans (57 points)

Now they get to go up against the #23 Colts defense, which has been #10 worst despite playing the NFL’s #2 easiest schedule of opposing offenses.

For seven straight weeks, the Colts have faced offenses that rank #20 or worse.

Despite that, look at what they allowed from a final production:

  • 39 points to the #29 Browns offense
  • 38 points to the #20 Saints offense
  • 13 points to the #30 Panthers offense
  • 6 points to the #27 Patriots offense
  • 20 points to the #24 Bucs offense
  • 28 points to the #28 Titans offense

While the Bengals no longer have Joe Burrow at QB, they haven’t altered their early down aggressiveness very much.

Last week, they passed the ball on 50% of their early downs in the first three quarters, the #10 highest pass rate in the NFL.

For a desperate Bengals team, sitting at 6-6 with nothing to lose and playing at home with Jake Browning, I expect them to stay aggressive vs. this terrible Colts defense.

The Colts defense ranks #25 in pressure rate (32.3%) and blitzes just 18.2% of the time (#29). Browning is averaging 8.2 YPA with an 83% completion rate (50-of-60) when he has avoided pressure.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts offense has impressed at times despite playing the #5 toughest schedule of defenses.

The Colts have played just 3 games vs. defenses that ranked below average this year. They scored:

  • 31 points vs. the Texans
  • 27 points vs. the Panthers
  • 27 points vs. the Bucs

The Bengals’ #29 ranked defense is the second weakest defense the Colts have faced all season.

And they are at their weakest vs. the run (#30), which is the strength of the Colts offense (#11).

Last week was a tough road game in that they played the NFL’s #2 ranked run defense.

And two games prior, they played the NFL’s #1 ranked run defense of the Patriots.

But now that they are going up against the Bengals’ #30 ranked run defense, Gardner Minshew should have more ground support, which will make life easier on him through the air.

The Colts have gone over the total in 8 of their 12 games this year (67%) with the only unders coming against stout defenses such as the Ravens (in a monsoon), Patriots, Titans, and Panthers.

The Bengals don’t have nearly the strength of those defenses nor the lack of offensive weaponry.

The Bengals have gone over the total in 3 of their last 4 games, with the only under coming in Browning’s first game vs. the Steelers.

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