Only one quarterback was selected in the first round last season during the 2022 NFL Draft, but that is far from the norm.
In the five years before the 2022 draft, an average of four quarterbacks came off the board in the first round.
This year, four QBs may very well be drafted within the first ten picks of the 2023 NFL Draft: C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.
However, as Warren Sharp writes for Fox Sports, those first-round quarterbacks have not found much playoff success:
There have been 38 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2011, the year the NFL changed the collective bargaining agreement to set a wage scale for rookie deals, making it extremely affordable to draft a quarterback.
These 38 first round quarterbacks have made a total of 1,909 starts. Their record? 1034-1035-7
Together, these 38 quarterbacks have played in a total of 214 seasons since being drafted.
41 of those 214 seasons (19.2%) saw the team that drafted the quarterback make the playoffs.
For most of that time, 37.5% of all teams made the playoffs. That has since increased to 43.8% with 14 of 32 teams qualifying annually. Yet these teams made it only 19% of the time.
That lack of playoff success has not stopped teams from taking swings in the draft by selecting a QB early.
Which NFL teams will draft a Quarterback in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft?
- The Carolina Panthers traded two firsts, two seconds, and D.J. Moore for a No. 1 pick that will almost certainly be a quarterback
- The Houston Texans are expected to take a quarterback at No. 2
- It would not be surprising if the Tennessee Titans jumps up to No. 3 to grab a quarterback ahead of the Colts, who are picking fourth
- The Seahawks, Lions, Raiders and Falcons round out the top eight and could all be in the market for a quarterback
Of that group, the Lions (+2000) and Raiders (+4000) have the best Super Bowl odds according to BetMGM, but they already have veteran quarterbacks. If they select a quarterback early, he will likely begin his career on the bench. The other six have Super Bowl odds of +5000 or worse.