Bengals Win Total Over/Under for 2022: Why You Should Bet It

Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.

One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.

Bengals Win Total Over/Under Odds:

How many games will the Bengals win this season?

The Bengals are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.

Why You Should Bet the Over: Bengals Win Total in 2022

#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The trio of Joe Burrow, J’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins combine for under $20 million of salary cap space. Being able to leverage three incredible rookie contacts the Bengals’ front office spent money to address team needs this offseason.

The offensive line was upgraded with La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras as a result of the salary cap advantage of having elite quarterbacks and wide receivers on rookie contracts.

#2 Reason to bet Over:
There is little doubt that the 2021 Bengals overachieved and would be a team to fade as a result of public perception. The betting market accounted for the overachievement of last season.

With the improvement in the offensive line and Burrow being at full health from the beginning of the season, there is potential that the market is undervaluing the AFC champions.

#3 Reason to bet Over:
Better protection, more time to throw, and an increased willingness to throw the ball away will improve upon the 55 sacks taken in 2021.

Burrow averaged a quicker than league average time to throw and was still pressured above league average 33% of dropbacks.

If the Bengals can reduce the number of sacks n 2022, the offense will take a giant step forward as they were second in points per drive without a sack.

» Bet the Bengals Win Total Over 

Why You Should Bet the Under: Bengals Win Total in 2022

#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Joe Burrow is an absolute star in the making; however, it is not likely that he can operate at the same efficiency in 2022.

Burrow led the league in CPOE, completion percentage, and yards per attempt and even with an improved offensive line and more time to throw that efficiency will be difficult to sustain.

Working against Burrow is the fact the Bengals face the most difficult schedule of passing defenses in 2022 after facing the easiest last year.

Burrow can remain elite, but it is unlikely he can reproduce the incredible season he had last year. 

#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Bengals have the highest jump in difficulty of schedule in 2022 playing the seventh hardest strength of schedule after having the third easiest last year. 

#3 Reason to bet the Under:
Both injury and field goal luck are due for regression in 2022.

The Bengals finished with five net field goals over expected, partly due to good fortune as opponents missed 2.9 field goals over expectation, while rookie kicker Evan McPherson made 2.1 field goals over expectation.

The Bengals also benefitted from remaining relatively healthy with the seventh-lowest number of adjusted games lost due to injury.

» Bet the Bengals Win Total Under

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Cincinnati Bengals Strength of Schedule:

The Bengals are ranked #26 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the harder schedules for the 2022 NFL season.

For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book

All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.