Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.
This is a picks column, and we will certainly get there, but I wanted to do two things before I begin.
First, I am super jacked about being back on the Warren's Sharp Football Analytics team. There aren’t many people who love the NFL like I do, but Warren and the staff are right there with me.
Next, I’d like to throw out a few wild predictions for the upcoming NFL season. Some are fairly tame while others are less so.
I want to do it in as few words as possible to get to the task at hand, listing picks for the week and the why.
Here are the top 5 forecasts I have for the upcoming NFL season:
- The Dallas Cowboys make it to the NFC Championship game, and Dak Prescott has a 4 to 1 TD-to-interception ratio while finishing top three for MVP.
- The Chiefs do NOT make it to the Super Bowl.
- Neither the Jets nor the Bears make the playoffs (everyone’s favorite “surprises”) while the Broncos do.
- Your NFL MVP will be Lamar Jackson. (Todd Monken is what Lamar needed along with Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers).
- Jacksonville Jaguars win at least 12 games (Two really good CBs help).
I will put the rest on Twitter: @CoachKelley1
Browns vs. Bengals Spread Prediction:
Look for the Cleveland Browns to cover the spread as a home underdog at +2.5 (-110). Closer to game time you might be able to get -3.
Why I like the Browns to cover the spread vs the Bengals in Week 1:
There are several reasons I like this bet. Let’s look at the case against Joe Burrow first.
He has never beaten Cleveland in Cleveland. He has run roughshod over the Chiefs (arguably the best team in the NFL) at times, but he can’t get over the hump versus the Browns?
Sometimes this gets in a quarterback’s head, and sometimes inside the team itself.
Burrow has been out with a calf injury for a while. Besides timing, rapport, and confidence, the fact that Burrow hasn’t had many live-action reps is harder for a quarterback than any other player.
I love watching Burrow, and for my money, I might take him first overall if I got to truly choose an NFL team, but his first game back won’t be as sharp as he wants it to be.
Oh, and he has Myles Garrett trying to destroy him every play as well.
Look at the other quarterback, Deshaun Watson.
Regardless of our thoughts on all things scandal, he has demonstrated in the past that he can play some really good and exciting quarterback.
I know he was bad last year, but coming back that long off without even being able to be with the team and with so much hanging over his head, he simply was not going to play well.
Let’s start with the fact that he has the most productive running back in the league in Nick Chubb. He is one of three backs to average over 5 yards per carry over the last three years.
His ability allows for play action, which buys more time for pass protection, which should really help free up those routes behind the linebackers that have to pay attention to Chubb.
He has a true No. 1 to throw to in Amari Cooper and a solid TE in David Njoku, who could really take a forward step in production this year.
On defense, I think the Bengals have the better defense. But they did both average the same amount of yards per play and play in the same division, so like teams come into that number as well.
Finally, I saw a stat where in Week 1, division underdogs home or away win around 60% of the games.
I hate just finding stuff like that and not being able to make sense of it. From a coaching and player perspective, it makes sense to me because it is a new season, everyone is playing for the same thing, and players on the underdog team are out to set the record straight.
I also love the blue collar Cleveland crowd and the Dawg Pound, and I know it will be tough for Burrow to communicate when they get on one end.
Giants vs. Cowboys Browns Spread Prediction:
Look for the New York Giants to cover the spread as a home underdog at +3.5 and the game to go Over 45.5 points.
Why I like the Giants to cover the spread vs. the Cowboys in Week 1:
I HATE betting against the Dallas Cowboys because the two teams I cheer for are them and the Patriots. But I think this is a horrible spot in game one on the road against the NFL quarterback whisperer Brian Daboll.
You will never convince me that he is not the one dramatically responsible for the crazy improvement in the play of Josh Allen. I think he is going to make the same difference in Daniel Jones, and he began that last year.
Jones finished in the top 10 in the league in completions over expected, which is one of my favorite measuring sticks. I would have lost a lot of money on that.
Daboll makes a difference in the teaching, the play calling, and the design. In turn, that reduces turnovers and increases the windows the quarterback has to throw in.
To make things even better, the Giants made two great moves in the offseason in picking up Darren Waller at tight end and re-signing Darius Slayton at wide receiver.
Waller may end up leading all tight ends in yards in my opinion. I know he has to stay healthy, but with the threat of Saquon Barkley in the backfield and a year further removed from the ACL injury, the weapons are there and the play caller with those will make life much easier for Jones
The Cowboys definitely own the better defense. And Micah Parsons will be a man to watch when he is getting after Jones. But the Giants passer does have great mobility and that will certainly help equalize the situation in that regard.
The Giants defense finished No. 18 last year, which is obviously close to the middle of the pack.
They gave up a lot on the ground and have addressed that some. I do think Tony Pollard could have a big game for those playing props. They will get it to him on the ground and in the air, whichever is working better.
Dak Prescott will have a great year and probably a pretty good game here. But they still need to figure out how to use newly acquired Brandin Cooks.
I love the pickup, but I think Cooks still thinks he is a No.1 receiver and that could hurt them early while trying to figure that out.
Dak’s accuracy suffered last year coming back from that leg injury, and I think he has worked towards improving that. With the first live meaningful game, however, they won’t be there at first.
Last year, I thought he should have used his legs a little more, and I don’t say that often about quarterbacks. But I think that is the trend he started and will continue until he realizes he can do that and still be safe while making an impact with his legs.
I think with their new offensive weapons, that will be enough for the Giants to quite possibly win this home opener and definitely stay within a field goal.
Both teams should score on the other, but the excitement of the first game and that home crowd will factor in as the Giants try to take a step in the very tough NFC East.
Bonus NFL Best Bets for Week 1:
- Jacksonville Jaguars -5 (-110) over the Indianapolis Colts
- Ravens Team Total over 27 (-110)
Throw some Chick-fil-A money on them.