Each week during the 2021 NFL season, Sports Info Solutions will highlight the spread of three games including Monday Night Football.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
This is a big one. The Patriots are fighting to hold onto the first seed and the Colts have salvaged their season and are firmly in the AFC playoff hunt as the tentative sixth seed after an 0-3 start. It does appear they’ll give up their first-rounder for Carson Wentz, but he’s playing arguably the best football of his career, especially if you discount the third down and under pressure variance of his 2017 campaign. His early-down, clean pocket Passing Points Earned/Play is a career-high, and he ranks sixth in Passing Points/Earned across all his dropbacks this year.
He’s complemented by the league leader in Rushing Total Points, Jonathan Taylor, whose EPA/rush this season is on par with 2018 Todd Gurley’s. Not coincidentally, the Colts’ OL ranks first in Run Blocking Points Earned. Quenton Nelson and company will be facing the Patriots’ eighth-ranked run defense on a per-play basis, so this will be a contest of wills when the Colts are on offense.
The Patriots have proven they can grind it out too, but they’ve also shown they’re highly adaptable. They have the seventh-ranked rushing attack in Total Points/Rush, but the Colts’ fifth-ranked run defense is the strongest unit they’ve seen since the fourth-ranked Saints. Mac Jones threw 51 passes in that game, while the Pats’ running backs carried the ball just 11 times in a 28-13 loss.
Granted, the Pats fell behind and were forced to pass more than they might have liked, but they should have an opportunity to take the path of least resistance here as Indianapolis ranks just 24th in Pass Coverage Total Points Saved/Snap. People may be gun-shy considering Jones threw the ball just three times in his last outing, but Bill Belichick has been willing to turn him loose when it makes sense to. For that reason, I like O226.5 passing yards for the leading Rookie of the Year candidate.
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens
This game should have more hype considering these teams are division leaders, but Lamar Jackson’s injury status and the Ravens’ recent struggles put a damper on what would otherwise be a marquee matchup. In the past five weeks, the Ravens have gone 2-3 while averaging just 16.6 points per game. They’ve also ranked 24th in offensive EPA/Play over that same span, so this is not a team that is rounding into form as we enter the home stretch. Normally, they might be able to exploit the Packers’ 28th-ranked run defense, but it might be tough with Jackson and three starting linemen all listed as questionable.
Meanwhile, Green Bay has been a well-oiled machine offensively and is presenting a lot of different looks to their opponents. They’re the only team in the NFL that ranks in the top 10 in EPA/play in rushing out of 11 personnel, passing out of 11 personnel, running out of 12 personnel, and passing out of 12 personnel, so they have a lot of tools at their disposal to attack the personnel groupings they want to. On top of that, they have arguably the best quarterback-receiver duo in the NFL, with Aaron Rodgers ranked seventh in Passing Points Earned/Play and Davante Adams ranking 2nd in Receiving Points Earned/Route.
That’s going to be a lot for the Ravens defense to handle. On a per-game basis, they rank 20th in Run Defense Total Points, 16th in Pass Rush Total Points, and 15th in Pass Coverage Total Points. It’s hard to identify an advantage they might have, which explains why the Packers are such strong road favorites at -5.5. Everything’s coming together for Green Bay, whereas Baltimore is contending with injuries and has seemingly lost their mojo.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Whew, this week’s Monday night game stinks. The 6-7 Vikings are on the playoff bubble thanks to the expanded playoff format, and the Bears are likely just riding out the tenure of Matt Nagy.
It’s been a season to forget for Justin Fields. He’s been sacked at one of the highest rates of any quarterback the last five years and currently ranks dead last in Passing Points Earned/Play among 38 quarterbacks with 100+ attempts. As a so-called Fields apologist, I maintain that there’s a lot more to like on film than there is in the data, but this nevertheless paints a picture of a rough rookie season.
I would add that the inverse is true for his Week 15 counterpart; Kirk Cousins’s stats always create a better impression of him than his on-field play does, and he once again ranks in the top ten in Passing Points Earned/Play this year. Regardless of what I think about Cousins, Minnesota has averaged 30 PPG over their past six contests, and they are now confronted with a Bears team that has yielded 26 points or more in over half their games this year and five of its last seven. That aligns with their 27th ranking in defensive Total Points Saved/Game. All that to say – Vikings O25.5 (+100) looks appetizing, as much as I’ll hate myself for rooting for them.