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The schedule release brought with it some interesting betting opportunities thanks to an unprecedented amount of rest and preparation time disparity in the 2023 NFL schedule.
Last year, teams with a net rest edge of three or more days went 32-24-1 (57%) and covered the spread at a 54.4% rate.
It is even more valuable later in the season.
Since 2015, teams with a three or more day rest advantage from Week 13 onward have:
- won 55.2% of their games
- covered the spread in 55.7% of games over a 106-game sample.
There are 19 games from Week 13 that feature one team with a rest edge of three or more days in the 2023 NFL Schedule.
Before we dive into a couple of those games, Warren Sharp just released his first wave of futures for the 2023 season! Those premium bets attack some of the biggest rest edge disparities as well as some longshot futures play.
Buy the 2023 NFL Futures Package today for access to all of Warren’s premium futures plays from now until the end of the season!
These games ARE NOT official picks, but they do fall into the rest disparity trend we want to target.
NY Giants -2.5 vs Green Bay – Week 14
The Packers will be off their most difficult stretch in the season, playing games vs the Steelers, Chargers, Lions and Chiefs in succession prior to traveling to New York to take on the Giants.
New York has a brutal schedule but is off a bye week in Week 13 prior to facing the Packers.
Last year, the new coaching staff of the Giants had 3 games with more rest than their opponent. They went 3-1 ATS including 3-0 after Week 3.
Every game featuring rest disparity as well as the most detailed NFL team previews in the business are available in Warren Sharp’s 2023 Football Preview. Pre-order today.
LA Chargers +1 (-110) vs Buffalo – Week 16
The Bills play a short week Saturday Night game in Los Angeles after playing a brutal stretch of games against the Jets, Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys (with a bye after the Eagles game).
Meanwhile, the Chargers have extra rest because of a late-season mini-bye after playing the Raiders in Week 15 on Thursday.
In addition to a rare extra-rest vs. short-rest late in the season, given the game on Saturday is at night, the Bills have to deal with body clock issues. Non-West Coast teams that play on the West Coast in a primetime game are 18-28 (39%) SU and 20-26 (43%) ATS since 2016 and 29-45 (39%) SU and 31-43 (42%) ATS since 2010.
Buy the 2023 NFL Futures Package today for access to all of Warren’s premium futures plays from now until the end of the season!
Cincinnati +1 at San Francisco – Week 8
This game features a rare bye-week vs. short-rest situation.
The Bengals are off a Week 7 bye. They host the Seahawks in Week 6 in Cincy and won’t play again until they travel to San Francisco in Week 8.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are off a back-to-back road trip. In Week 6 they go to Cleveland. Then they will fly back home. Then in Week 7, they fly to Minnesota for a Monday Night game. (Because neither game is East Coast and because the second game is on Monday, I find it extremely unlikely the 49ers will stay in Minnesota to practice for the week). Then they fly back home on Tuesday morning.
That’s a fair amount of air travel in the two weeks preceding the Bengals game, coupled with short rest off of Monday night, coupled with the Bengals off a bye.
Then there is the fact that in their last 20 road games, the Bengals are 16-4 ATS dating back to early 2021. They have won 14 of the 20 outright despite being favored in only 10 of the 20.