Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Broncos against the Cowboys.
Week 8 Best Bet Prediction: Broncos -3.5
The Broncos mounted a furious comeback against the Giants last week, getting shut out through three quarters and trailing the G-Men 19-0 before scoring an eye-popping 33 points in the fourth quarter.
Viewers were treated to the full Bo Nix experience.
Fortunately, Nix and Denver’s offense have a golden opportunity to build on their explosive fourth quarter in a cupcake matchup against Dallas’s dreadful defense.
According to Sumer Sports, the Cowboys are 29th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed (0.13) and 31st in success rate allowed (49.14%).
The Broncos don’t have a juggernaut offense.
Nevertheless, it’s above average, ranking tied for ninth in EPA per play (0.04).
It’s also a versatile offense, capable of moving the ball through the air via Nix to Courtland Sutton and a mix of ancillary pieces or on the ground with Nix’s legs, J.K. Dobbins, or a sprinkling of RJ Harvey.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades the Broncos first in pass blocking and 12th in run blocking.
So, in addition to their stellar EPA ranks on offense, their offensive line is passing PFF’s film-grading test.
The Cowboys have an even more potent offense than the Broncos. Yet, Dallas’ high-flying offense is saddled by a dreadful defense.
Meanwhile, Denver’s above-average offense is the B-side of their offensive and defensive units.
The Broncos are tied for second in EPA per play allowed (-0.10) and first in success rate allowed (35.68%).
The Broncos have more paths to victory than the imbalanced Cowboys.
Moreover, Nix’s and Dak Prescott’s home and road splits are a critical consideration.
According to Pro Football Reference, Nix is 9-2 at home with a 95.0 quarterback rating versus 6-7 with an 88.2 quarterback rating on the road.
Per StatHead, last week’s 1-point victory against the Giants was Nix’s only win at home by fewer than 8 points.
Prescott is a fire-breathing giant at home and less imposing, albeit still stellar, on the road.
Since 2023, he’s tallied a 106.3 quarterback rating at home in 15 games versus a 95.2 quarterback rating in 18 games on the road.
Prescott and the Cowboys were only 8-10 in Prescott’s 18 road starts since 2023.
Ultimately, the well-rounded Broncos and their second-year quarterback should take advantage of playing at home and beat the Cowboys by more than 3.5 points on Sunday, and the -102 line offered at BetMGM Sportsbook is the most appealing line across sportsbooks.