Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season is here!
There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Broncos facing the Texans and the Colts playing the Steelers.
Week 9 Best Bet Prediction: Denver Broncos Under 19.5 Points (+100)
The Houston Texans have an outstanding defense by both traditional and advanced statistics.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Texans are tied for the fifth-fewest yards per play (4.8) allowed, tied for the fifth-most turnovers forced (11), and first in scoring defense (14.7 points per game).
They also have 16 sacks in seven games.
While that’s not an eye-popping number, Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades them second in pass rush.
Per Sumer Sports, the Texans are first in Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.13), first in EPA per pass allowed (-0.21), tied for 17th in EPA per rush allowed (-0.01), and third in success rate allowed (39.29%).
The Texans have held five opponents to fewer than 20 points in seven contests this year, allowing a median of 15.
Houston has yielded 0, 15, and 20 points in their three home games, for an average of 11.7 points per game and a median of 15.
Bo Nix and the Broncos are unlikely to find much success against Houston’s talented defense.
The second-year quarterback is much better at home and has unimpressive numbers on the road.
According to TruMedia, Nix had passed for 2,690 yards (192.1 per game), 17 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions with an 88.5 quarterback rating in 14 games on the road.
He’s also taken 20 sacks on the road and lost eight of 14 road tilts.
The Nix-led Broncos scored fewer than 20 points in five road games since last year, and they scored precisely 20 points in two of the games they exceeded this week’s team total of 19.5 points.
Denver averaged only 20.1 points per game, with a median of 20.5 in those 14 road games.
Considering the varying calibers of defenses they faced in those contests, it’s reasonable to expect a stingy defense like Houston’s to hold them below their average and median on the road since last year.
Moreover, Nix hasn’t led the Broncos to many points in early games.
According to StatHead, the Broncos scored 7, 10, 10, 13, 14, 21, and 26 points in seven games with a start time before 3:00 p.m. ET since last year.
Thus, the Broncos have averaged only 14.4 points per game, with a median of 13 in those games.
Nix is unlikely to turn his road numbers and early-window stats around this week in a challenging matchup, making the +100 odds at DraftKings for Denver going under 19.5 points an appealing wager.
Week 9 Best Bet Prediction: Indianapolis Colts Over 27.5 Points (+100)
The Colts have unleashed an unbelievable offense this season.
Indianapolis is first in yards per play (6.5), clearing the Bills in second by 0.4 yards per play.
They’re also first in scoring offense, smashing teams for 33.8 points per game.
Unsurprisingly, their advanced statistics are also jaw-dropping.
The Colts are first in EPA per play (0.23), second in EPA per pass (0.27), first in EPA per rush (0.16), and first in success rate (49.89%).
Daniel Jones has excelled in his first year in Shane Steichen’s offense.
Among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this year, Danny Dimes is second in total EPA (85.11) and second in EPA per play (0.30).
While Jones has played exceptionally well, it hasn’t come at Jonathan Taylor’s expense.
Instead, Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (850).
Furthermore, according to the Fantasy Points data suite, among 46 running backs with at least 46 rush attempts this season, Taylor is second in yards per carry (5.94), tied for fourth in explosive run rate (8.4%), seventh in overall success rate (56.6%), and first in success rate (72.0%) on man/gap concepts.
The Colts can have their way with the Steelers on the ground or through the air.
Pittsburgh is tied for 24th in EPA per play allowed (0.07), tied for 24th in EPA per pass allowed (0.13), tied for 15th in EPA per rush allowed (-0.02), and 23rd in success rate allowed (45.30%).
Pittsburgh’s defense has coughed up the ninth-most yards per play (5.6) and the 11th-most points per game (25.0) this season.
They’ve allowed four of seven opponents to surpass 30 points this year, and held only three under Indy’s team total of 27.5 points.
Meanwhile, the Colts have eclipsed 27.5 points in seven of eight games.
The only time they went under 27.5 points was when they scored 20 points against the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 4.
Infamously, Adonai Mitchell dropped the ball just before the goal line, resulting in a fumble through the end zone and subsequent touchback.
The Colts should continue their heater.
The +100 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook for Indianapolis to go over 27.5 points against the Steelers this week are appealing.