Warren Sharp’s game previews are unlike anything you’ll find anywhere in the industry, and this year he will be sharing his write-ups along with betting picks on Sharp Football Analysis.
Warren’s betting recommendations have seen sustained success, exceeding 58% wins across over 2,700 betting recommendations in his 17 years.
He has won 62.3% of NFL totals releases from 2006 through 2022 from his model, including exceeding a 70% win rate each of the last three seasons:
- 37-15 record (71%) in 2022
- 23-5 (82%) in 2021
- 28-9 (76%) in 2020
A $100 bettor would be up $8,672 based on Warren’s recommendations for the 2023 NFL season.
117 LA Rams Over 42 (0.75 units)
On early downs in the first three quarters of games this season, the LA Rams pass defense is the most sensitive to play action of any pass defense.
- Vs play action: +0.29 EPA/att (#30), 53% success (#28), 8.8 YPA (#17)
- No play action: -0.06 EPA/att (#13), 36% success (#12), 6.0 YPA (#13)
Throughout the season, the split has become even more pronounced.
Since Week 10, it’s been astonishing how incredible they are when offenses do not use play action and how terrible they are when those same offenses use play action.
Since Week 10:
- Vs play action: +0.60 EPA/att (#32), 62% success (#32), 11.9 YPA (#32)
- No play action: -0.16 EPA/att (#9), 29% success (#2), 4.4 YPA (#1)
This wasn’t just one team having a ton of success. It was virtually every opponent they played except Sam Howell’s Commanders.
Last week, Derek Carr went 8-of-9 for 16.4 YPA, +1.44 EPA/att, and an 89% success rate with play action. But when not using play action, he went 4-of-11 for 4.2 YPA, -0.33 EPA/att, and a 13% success rate on these early down passes in the first three quarters.
In Joe Flacco’s first game back in the NFL this year, he went 7-of-11 for 12.9 YPA, +0.78 EPA/att, and a 64% success rate with play action. But when not using play action, he went 8-of-13 for 3.4 YPA, -0.29 EPA/att, and a 22% success rate.
Here is a graphic to show how impactful using play action vs the Rams has been. They are the most sensitive defense to play action passes.
This season, Tyrod Taylor has been better on early down dropbacks with play action.
Here are his splits in the first three quarters of games:
- With play action: +0.11 EPA/att, 45% success, 11.9 YPA on 10-of-13 passing
- No play action: -0.26 EPA/att, 36% success, 3.4 YPA on 11-of-22 passing
The lone concern naturally is a higher sack rate, and Taylor has been sacked on 24% of his play action dropbacks as opposed to only 4% without play action.
But those sack numbers are incorporated into the efficiency stats posted above, and the results still are massively in favor of him using more play action.
Except for bad QBs this year, every QB to face the Giants pass defense has done well.
Bad QBs like Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, and Sam Howell struggled along with Jordan Love.
Not great QBs like Aidan O’Connell and Josh Dobbs did better than they did vs. most opponents. Early in the season, Dak Prescott and Geno Smith did not have to do much but were fine in blowout wins.
But QBs like Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, and Derek Carr all had outstanding games. The only good QB that struggled was Josh Allen, for obvious reasons (facing his former coach Brian Daboll).
Matthew Stafford has been playing lights out of late and belongs in that tier of good QBs that usually have a solid day throwing the ball against this Giants defense.
Stafford dealt with injuries to his hip and thumb as well as injuries to his receiving corps early in the season.
He was on the injury report with a hip back in Week 5, missed Week 9 with a thumb injury, and was still on the injury report in Week 11 after the bye with the thumb injury.
WR1 Cooper Kupp missed the first 4 weeks of the season.
RB1 Kyren Williams was injured in Week 6 and didn’t come off injured reserve until Week 12.
So, the only games with QB1, WR1, and RB1 not injured this season have come from Week 12 onward:
- 37 points vs Arizona
- 36 points vs Cleveland
- 31 points vs Baltimore
- 28 points vs Washington
- 30 points vs New Orleans
And every one of those defenses except for Arizona is a better defense than the Giants.
I love this stat from colleague Rich Hribar:
The 49ers lead the NFL with 6.8 yards per play on the season.
With all of Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua on the field this season, the Rams are averaging 6.8 yards per offensive play.
Ref notes:
- Tra Blake’s crew leads the NFL in DEFENSIVE pass interference penalties. In addition, this crew has the highest average yardage per infraction.
- Tra Blake's crew leads the NFL in DEFENSIVE holding penalties.
- The Rams defensive backs account for 28% of the team’s overall penalties, the largest portion of penalties of any position group on the team.
- The primary penalty assessed on the Rams defensive backs has been defensive pass interference, which accounts for 60% of infractions on passing plays.
Fantasy notes:
- The Giants have allowed 4.58 YPC to running backs (29th).
- The Rams are allowing 8.2 yards per target (28th) and a 7.5% touchdown rate (28th) to tight ends.