The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Colts and 49ers on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Spread | 5.5 | ||
| 26.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 24.6 | 11 | Points/Gm | 28.0 | 6 |
| 20.9 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 21.6 | 12 |
| 64.7 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 60.1 | 22 |
| 59.9 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.4 | 31 |
| 5.4 | 16 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.0 | 7 |
| 5.6 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 14 |
| 44.59% | 13 | Rush% | 44.23% | 16 |
| 55.41% | 20 | Pass% | 55.77% | 17 |
| 40.88% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 38.86% | 4 |
| 59.12% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 61.14% | 29 |
- The Colts did not have one play of 20 or more yards last week for the first time in a game this season. They had at least 2 in every game prior.
- San Francisco is 28th in EPA as a rush defense over their past six games (-1.5).
- The Colts are first in EPA as a rushing offense (19.5).
- The 49ers are 9-0 in games they have led at the half and 1-4 in games they have trailed at the half.
- Since Week 5, the 49ers have converted a league-high 49.6% of their third downs.
- Over their past six games, 34.8% of San Francisco's passing plays have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- Over that same period, the 49ers have scored on a league-high 55.7% of their possessions.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy: Purdy turned in his best outing of the season on Sunday, completing 23 of 30 (76.7%) passes for 295 yards (9.8 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions against the Titans.
He added a season-high 44 rushing yards to his total, producing a QB4 (26.2 points) scoring week, his first 20-point game of the year.
Purdy has two QB1 scoring weeks in six starts.
He has held a high floor (just one week in the back half of scoring), but this is a spot where I have him as more of a floor-based QB1/QB2 than an outright smash.
The Colts have done a good job defensively through multiple injuries under Lou Anarumo.
The focus last week was on their quarterback, but Anarumo was the real story.
The Colts have not allowed an opposing passer to finish higher than QB10 in a game since Week 7.
Only two quarterbacks have thrown for 8.0 yards per pass attempt or better against them this season.
They are ninth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.385) in a “bend but don’t break” fashion.
The Colts are in the middle of the league in allowing a 63.4% completion rate (13th) and 7.1 yards per pass attempt (16th) but have allowed only a 3.5% touchdown rate (6th).
Philip Rivers: Coming out of retirement and not playing since 2020, Rivers showed up on Sunday and was not a complete embarrassment.
He wasn't good either.
Rivers completed 18 of 27 passes (66.7%) for 120 yards (4.4 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
The approach was clearly for Rivers to “not lose” the game.
They threw the ball 17% below expectations in Seattle and 33% below expectations on first downs.
The Colts threw the ball 4 times on 23 first-down snaps.
He took 98.3% of the snaps out of shotgun to slow the pass rush, let Rivers process pre-snap, and get the ball out fast.
His 2.52 seconds were the second-fastest time to throw in Week 15.
37% of Rivers’ pass attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage (29th last week).
Rivers never had the strongest arm at his apex, but the lack of arm strength at this stage was evident last week.
He was 2 of 8 for 33 yards and an interception when throwing the ball 10 or more yards downfield.
The way the Colts ran their offense last week is not sustainable, but I also want to give them a week to calibrate.
Rivers was with the team for less than a week after not playing for 5 years, and they were on the road against a top NFL defense.
Rivers is still a limited option as a QB2, but this week, they have an extra day of preparation at home and face a softer defense.
If the Colts still want to be a run-first offense that throws short, this is the matchup for that.
San Francisco has no pass rush.
They are 31st in pressure rate (29.7%) and last in sack rate (3.4%).
Last week, they were the first defense this season that did not sack Cam Ward.
San Francisco’s approach to working around all of their defensive injuries is to funnel short passes and make tackles.
Over their past nine games, the 49ers have allowed a 69.7% completion rate (31st) but have only allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt (17th) as a product of facing 7.7 air yards per pass attempt (13th).
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor (TRUST): Taylor was a workhorse on Sunday, logging 28 touches for 101 yards in Seattle.
He has posted just one RB1 scoring week over his past six games, but Taylor has also faced a gauntlet of front-end defenses over that run.
Over the past four weeks, he has faced the Chiefs, Texans, Jaguars, and Seahawks.
He gets a breather this week.
If the Colts want to line up and run the football, this is an excellent matchup for that.
Without Mykel Williams, the 49ers are last in success rate against running backs runs (49.4%), allowing 5.0 yards per carry (29th) and a run of 10 or more yards on 11.3% of those attempts (23rd).
They have allowed a first down or touchdown on 28% of those runs (31st).
San Francisco has allowed 130 total yards per game to backfields over their past five games, facing the Cardinals, Titans, and Browns as part of that stretch along with the Rams and Panthers.
In the past two weeks, they have allowed 91 rushing yards to Quinshon Judkins and 104 yards on the ground to Tony Pollard.
Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey turned 23 touches into 87 yards and a touchdown Sunday against the Titans.
For the first time this season, McCaffrey has gone back-to-back games falling short of 100 total yards.
Both of the past two spots were tough matchups for McCaffrey on the ground, but he also was not involved out of the backfield in either game.
His two lowest target shares (17.4% and 3.6%) have come in the past two games, and he has posted less than 1.0 yards per route in each of those games, his only games below that this year.
With the loss of Ricky Pearsall, he has another opportunity to get more targets.
Even through these past two “down” weeks, McCaffrey has held a high floor for fantasy through volume and touchdown equity.
McCaffrey leads the NFL in touches (345).
He has scored a rushing touchdown in four straight games and has found the end zone in some capacity in nine of his past 11 games.
As a volume-based RB1, we have another matchup where CMC could be more of an RB1 than push to be the RB1 overall.
The Colts are allowing 3.8 YPC to running backs (6th).
They have allowed one 100-yard rusher, which was Kareem Hunt at 104 yards. He ran the ball 30 times to get there.
The Colts are also sixth in receiving points allowed to running backs (7.0 per game) to backfields.
Wide Receiver
More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ Seahawks | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Saturday -- 5 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bears | Saturday -- 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Texans | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| 49ers @ Colts | Monday Night Football |