The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the Dolphins and Bucs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Spread | 5.5 | ||
| 26.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 23.1 | 18 | Points/Gm | 21.1 | 22 |
| 25.1 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 24.6 | 22 |
| 62.6 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 56.1 | 30 |
| 59.9 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 12 |
| 5 | 26 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 11 |
| 5.7 | 27 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 25 |
| 44.09% | 16 | Rush% | 44.83% | 14 |
| 55.91% | 17 | Pass% | 55.17% | 19 |
| 39.20% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 46.35% | 24 |
| 60.80% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 53.65% | 9 |
- 24.8% of Tampa Bay's sets of downs reach third and long (7+ yards), 29th in the league.
- Miami has converted a league-worst 25.7% (18 of 70) of third downs since Week 9.
- Over their past 9 games, the Buccaneers are averaging 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 29th in the league. Only the Browns (4.4), Jets (4.4), and Raiders (4.0) are worse.
- Tampa Bay has gained 10 or more yards on 21.3% of their passing plays over that span, 30th in the league.
- Miami has a 51.1% success rate defending passing plays, 31st in the league.
- Miami is 2-7 as an underdog this season compared to 4-2 as a favorite.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield (TRUST): A week after showcasing some missing upside from early in the season, the Tampa Bay passing game took an immediate step backwards on Sunday against Carolina.
Mayfield only threw for 145 yards and 5.6 yards per pass attempt.
It was the fifth time in six weeks that Mayfield has failed to pass for 200 yards.
The Bucs had 1 pass play of 20-plus yards, matching a season low.
A week after averaging a season-high 10.6 air yards per pass attempt against Atlanta, Mayfield averaged a season-low 5.8 air yards per attempt on Sunday.
To compound the lack of downfield passing, the Bucs were also ultra-conservative in overall approach.
They threw the ball 13% below expectations and 24% below expectations on first down, their lowest rates of the season.
That does not provide much confidence in turning back to Mayfield as a potential streamer with upside, but this is a strong spot for him to bounce back.
As Justin Herbert taught us last week, we must stay the course when things line up on paper.
The Bucs have a solid team total and are facing a Miami pass defense that we have regularly picked on this season.
Miami is 27th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.500), allowing a league-high 71.5% completion rate, 7.5 yards per pass attempt (26th), and a 5.8% touchdown rate (28th).
Miami is also 25th in rushing points allowed to passers (3.6 per game).
The one good thing from Mayfield last week was that he rushed for 49 yards and has averaged 4.0 rushing points per game over the past six games.
Over their past seven games, Miami has allowed five QB1 scoring weeks.
One of the weeks they did not was against Brady Cook.
The other was Aaron Rodgers, who still scored 17 points and had the second-highest completion percentage of his career.
Quinn Ewers: Ewers was a mixed bag in his first career start.
He completed 20 of 30 passes (66.7%) for 260 yards (8.7 Y/A) but did not throw a touchdown with 2 interceptions.
He was not sacked.
This game was tight through the first half, with Miami opening up the second half with the ball down 17-14.
Ewers was 10 of 12 for 109 yards (9.1 Y/A) at the break.
Ewers had a 32-yard completion to De’Von Achane that was negated on a brutally bad offensive pass interference call.
The very next play, Greg Dulcich fumbled, which led to a touchdown.
Miami got the ball back, and Ewers threw an interception that led to another Cincinnati touchdown, putting Miami down 31-14, and the game was sent into a one-sided script.
Miami did not get aggressive, however.
They ended up throwing the ball 11% below expectations and 13% below expectations on first downs.
Ewers did throw it downfield when asked to throw, a change of pace from the Tua Tagovailoa-led version of the offense.
40% of Ewers’ passes were 10 or more yards downfield (5th on the week), and 16.7% were 20 or more yards downfield (6th).
Unfortunately for Ewers, he was ineffective when he pushed the ball.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, he was 6 of 12 for 8.4 Y/A (20th) with 2 interceptions.
He was 1 of 5 on his throws of 20 or more yards downfield.
Ewers is a back-end QB2 in his second career start.
One thing we expected from last week was that Ewers wouldn't see much heat against the Bengals.
He was only blitzed 12.9% of the time, the fifth-lowest rate of the week.
That will change here.
Tampa Bay is fifth in blitz rate (30.9%).
Even though he will face more blitzes this week, the Bucs have not been effective on the back end of late.
Over their past seven games, Tampa Bay has allowed a 65.9% completion rate (24th), 8.1 yards per pass attempt (28th), and a 6.5% touchdown rate (29th).
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content, click below to learn more about our Fantasy Package.
Learn MoreMore Week 17 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Christmas Day |
| Lions @ Vikings | Christmas Day |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Christmas Day |
| Texans @ Chargers | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Packers | Saturday -- 8:00 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Rams @ Falcons | Monday Night Football |