In this college football DFS preview, I’ll break down the DraftKings Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options that come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
Key Play-Calling Data
Team Seconds per Play Overall Pass Rate 2nd Half Pass Rate W/ Lead 2nd Half Pass Rate Trailing Missouri 24.3 58.6% 35.0% 72.1% Boston College 28.7 39.8% 34.9% -- Georgia 28.5 48.1% 41.5% -- Vanderbilt 23.7 57.4% 47.4% 67.4% LSU 24.7 64.3% 57.1% 72.7% Mississippi State 29.3 78.5% 76.8% 80.5% Texas Tech 25.8 50.0% 44.9% 50.0% Texas 28.3 44.7% 21.3% 53.7% SMU 23.5 57.8% 50.6% 76.5% TCU 28.1 42.1% 24.4% 45.0% Notre Dame 24.6 54.7% 44.4% 55.9% Wisconsin 28.9 35.3% 25.8% 54.3% Boise State 23.6 55.2% 31.7% 73.2% Utah State 20.3 53.0% 41.2% 52.1% Texas A&M 27.6 55.0% 45.2% 68.3% Arkansas 26.5 35.9% 24.3% 30.0% Louisville 27.6 56.1% 50.0% 65.9% Florida State 23.6 50.7% 47.2% 47.3% Clemson 25.2 53.4% 44.6% 65.7% NC State 25.9 56.7% 36.5% 73.9% Iowa State 27.9 54.5% 48.0% 66.7% Baylor 29.0 38.0% 32.0% -- Rutgers 27.9 43.7% 32.0% -- Michigan 28.6 25.4% 19.8% --
Color Code: Blue: Top 20th Percentile | Green: 60-79th | Yellow: 40-59th | Orange: 20-39th | Red: 0-19th
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND
QB Malik Cunningham, Louisville at Florida State
Salary: $8,800
Who knows what the motivation level is for 0-3 Florida State. The Seminoles are a mess and this might be the ideal spot for Louisville to take advantage of them.
Among quarterbacks who’ve played at least three games, Malik Cunningham ranks seventh in the nation with 32.5 fantasy points per game, and has scored at least 29 points in every contest.
His production is propped up by six rushing touchdowns (two in each game), but that success might be sustainable given his 69% share of rush attempts inside the opponent’s 10-yard line.
QB Max Johnson, LSU at Mississippi State
Salary: $8,300
With its run game averaging just 3.0 yards per carry, LSU has been forced to lean heavily on Max Johnson. Even in a fairly easy win over Central Michigan, he was forced to throw 35 times with 37.3 fantasy points.
Mississippi State is probably the best defense LSU has faced, but the Bulldogs have only generated a pressure rate of 30.3%, ranked 10th in the SEC, according to Sports Info Solutions. That’s good news for Johnson, who’s averaging 8.5 yards per attempt in a clean pocket, compared to 6.8 under pressure.
QB Max Duggan, TCU vs. SMU
Salary: $8,000
Though he’s too unreliable for cash games, Max Duggan’s elite ceiling makes him a strong tournament option against a poor SMU defense.
SMU’s easy schedule has padded its defensive stats a bit, but the Mustangs did allow 37.0 fantasy points to Louisiana Tech’s Austin Kendall last week and ranked 95th in points per game allowed to quarterbacks in 2020.
Duggan’s fantasy production is all over the map, but he posted 33.5 points against California two weeks ago, thanks in large part to 19 rush attempts for 71 yards and a touchdown.
QB Will Rogers, Mississippi State vs. LSU
Salary: $7,800
It looks like Will Rogers is starting to get comfortable in Mike Leach’s offense and his fantasy numbers are on the rise 一 he’s topped 25 points in two of three games this season.
On throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (the bulk of Leach’s offense), LSU is allowing 5.6 yards after the catch per reception, the worst rate in the SEC according to Sports Info Solutions. Those struggles may partially explain why Mississippi State quarterback K.J. Costello lit up LSU for 623 yards in last year’s meeting.
RB Breece Hall, Iowa State at Baylor
Salary: $7,000
It’s been an underwhelming season for Breece Hall and yet he’s still averaging 21.4 fantasy points per game.
Though Baylor is allowing just 14.1 fantasy points per game to running backs, Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas aren’t exactly tough competition.
The Baylor defense has allowed 2.4 yards before contact per rush attempt, ranked 85th in the nation according to Sports Info Solutions. Given the weak competition, that’s a particularly concerning stat for the Bears, so perhaps this will be Hall’s breakout game of 2021.
RB Tyler Badie, Missouri at Boston College
Salary: $6,900
The Missouri offensive line has helped produce 3.1 rushing yards before contact this year, the 13th best rate in the nation, according to Sports Info Solutions. So maybe Tyler Badie can overcome a solid Boston College defense, which is holding opposing running backs to 14.7 fantasy points per game.
Badie’s team-high 17.1% target share should also boost our confidence significantly, as he should be productive in any game script. We’ve already seen him produce 30.9 fantasy points in a loss to Kentucky (thanks to 10 receptions) and 29.5 fantasy points in a blowout victory over Southeast Missouri State.
RB Blake Corum, Michigan vs. Rutgers
Salary: $6,700
This is a vastly improved Rutgers squad, but with Michigan favored by 20.5 points, expect a strong workload for Blake Corum.
Corum has seen a 28% opportunity share and has run routes on 36% of Michigan’s pass plays with the second-highest target share on the team (14.9%).
WR Deven Thompkins, Utah State vs. Boise State
Salary: $8,000
Based on seconds per play, these are two of the fastest teams on the slate, so it makes sense the game also carries the highest total (70 points).
Utah State’s Deven Thompkins has the second-highest salary among receivers, but has the production to back it up. He’s scored at least 24 fantasy points in each game, thanks to a 30.8% target share and an average depth of target (aDOT) at 12.9 yards downfield.
According to Sports Info Solutions, opponents are completing 51.6% of their passes at 10 or more yards downfield against Boise State, the third-worst rate in the Mountain West. 57% of Thompkins targets have at least 10 yards downfield.
WR Kayshon Boutte, LSU at Mississippi State
Salary: $7,800
If you’re rostering Max Johnson at quarterback, pair him with Kayshon Boutte, who has commanded a 30% target share when the score is within 10 points.
Boutte posted 44.8 points in the season opener against UCLA and posted 65.8 points last year against Ole Miss, so his elite ceiling is well established.
WR Khalil Shakir, Boise State at Utah State
Salary: $7,400
With at least 15 fantasy points in each game, Khalil Shakir is among the safest options on this slate and has an elevated ceiling in this potential shootout. Shakir dominates the target share (30.2%), and Boise State has an implied total of 39.5 points.
Last year in this matchup, Shakir posted 37.7 fantasy points, and it was only the third highest score allowed by Utah State to a wide receiver. Perhaps the Aggies defense has improved, but it’s tough to judge after games against Washington State, North Dakota, and Air Force.
CFB DFS VALUE PLAYS
QB Connor Bazelak, Missouri at Boston College
Salary: $6,800
The Boston College defense has generated a pressure rate of 22.1%, ranked 114th in the nation, according to Sports Info Solutions. Connor Bazelak is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt when kept clean, compared to 4.8 under pressure.
This game carries a total of 58 with Missouri favored by 1.5 points, giving it some decent shootout potential.
Bazelak posted 29.6 fantasy points on 51 pass attempts two weeks ago in a close game against Kentucky, so we can feel confident he has a strong ceiling in the right game script.
QB Dennis Grosel, Boston College vs. Missouri
Salary: $5,900
Following an injury to Phil Jurkovec, fifth-year senior Dennis Grosel took over at quarterback for Boston College with 15.1 fantasy points last week versus Temple.
Entering this season, Grossel already had eight career starts under his belt, including one last year in which he threw for four touchdowns and 520 yards against Virginia (36.1 fantasy points).
Though Boston College has leaned heavily on the run game this year, that’s likely due to an extremely easy schedule (they have yet to trail in the second half). In 2020, Jurkovec averaged 33.6 attempts per game and Grosel threw it 46 times in his lone start.
Given his inexperience, the floor is low, but as he showed against Virginia last season, Grosel is capable of putting up a huge number on this friendly salary.
QB Logan Bonner, Utah State vs. Boise State
Salary: $5,600
Rostering either Utah State quarterback 一 they rotate Logan Bonner and Andrew Peasley ($5,100) 一 is a huge risk, but could pay off in this potential shootout.
Bonner has attempted 75% of the Aggies passes, so he’s clearly the quarterback to target if you’re willing to make this gamble.
An additional reason to trust Bonner over Peasley is his downfield passing success. According to Sports Info Solutions, 75% of Bonner’s throws at 10 or more yards downfield have been catchable, compared to 64% for Peasley.
With Utah State likely playing from behind as nine-point underdogs, Bonner’s passing success potentially tilts the workload further in his favor.
RB Kyren Williams, Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin
Salary: $5,700
Despite topping 20 fantasy points in each game, 14 running backs carry a higher salary than Kyren Williams on this slate.
Though Wisconsin’s run defense is strong, Williams runs a route on 53% of Notre Dame’s pass plays when the score is within 10 points and has seen a 12% target share. So we should be confident he’ll produce even if the Irish run game struggles.
RB Pat Garwo III, Boston College vs. Missouri
Salary: $5,200
Missouri ranks 126th in rushing defense and 128th in fantasy points allowed to running backs (48.5 per game).
The Boston College backfield has been tough to figure out, but Pat Garwo III appears to have taken over for Alec Sinkfield ($3,100). Through the first two weeks, Sinkfield led the team in first-half carries, but did not get on the field in the first half in Week 3.
In Week 3, it was Garwo who took 13 of the 16 handoffs to running backs in the first half, before giving way to Sinkfield once the Eagles built a 21-0 halftime lead.
With Garwo averaging 6.6 yards per carry compared to Sinkfield’s 4.1, it’s probably safe to assume Garwo maintains control of the backfield touches.
RB SaRodorick Thompson, Texas Tech at Texas
Salary: 4,800
After missing the first two weeks with a shoulder injury, SaRodorick Thompson returned last week against FIU. Though he saw just four carries, it was likely by design to ease him back into action in a blowout victory.
Thompson led the Red Raiders in rushing each of the past two seasons, so an increased workload is likely in this game, though Tahj Brooks ($4,100) should still see the field.
In 2020, Thompson saw a 19% opportunity share and ran routes on 35% of Texas Tech’s pass plays.
The Texas defense has been vulnerable on the ground, giving up 5.8 yards per carry and 29.5 fantasy points per game to running backs.
WR Zay Flowers, Boston College vs. Missouri
Salary: $5,600
If you roll the dice with Boston College quarterback Dennis Grosel, be sure to pair him with Zay Flowers. Flowers has commanded a 22.6% target share with an aDOT of 13.5.
In Grosel’s lone start in 2020, Flowers put up 43 fantasy points on 11 targets.
WR Kevin Austin, Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin
Salary: $4,900
In Week 3 against Purdue, Kevin Austin was held without a catch despite leading Notre Dame with eight targets. Obviously that’s concerning, but it led to an appropriate drop in his salary.
Wisconsin’s pass defense may have some issues this year. In Week 1, Penn State had no problem stretching the field against the Badgers, completing four of eight attempts on throws 15 or more yards downfield.
Austin’s aDOT of 17.3 yards bodes well for him excelling in this matchup. Braden Lenzy ($3,800) also has an aDOT of 18.6 and is third on the team in target share (14%), putting him on our radar as well.
WR Xavier Worthy, Texas vs. Texas Tech
Salary: $4,700
In quarterback Casey Thompson’s first start last week, true freshman Xavier Worthy immediately emerged as his favorite target. In a blowout win over Rice, Worthy saw a team-high eight first-half targets (47% target share).
Worthy is a speedster who can stretch the field and has seen an aDOT of 16.4 yards this season.
Texas Tech is allowing 20.4 points per game to WR1s this year, setting a nice ceiling for Worthy if he remains Thompson’s go-to weapon. Jordan Wittington ($5,800), who was the top receiver through the first two weeks, might be worth consideration as well.
WR Tyquan Thornton, Baylor vs. Iowa State
Salary: $4,700
Baylor leans heavily on the run game and is one of the slowest teams in the nation, but they might be forced to pick up the pace and throw at an elevated rate as seven-point underdogs against Iowa State.
Thanks to a 31% target share, Tyquan Thornton is the obvious choice if you’re rostering anyone from Baylor. His 16.3 aDOT is also appealing, as it allows him to produce without a huge volume.
Iowa State has played some shaky offenses, so it’s tough to judge their defense. But it’s worth noting Northern Iowa receiver Quan Hampton put up 23.3 fantasy points in Week 1.
WR Reggie Roberson, SMU at TCU
Salary: $4,500
SMU spreads the ball around, with three receivers seeing a target share of at least 15%. Reggie Roberson is third on the team in target share (15.7%) but should see a strong volume for this fast-paced offense as nine-point underdogs at TCU. When trailing in the second half, SMU has thrown the ball at a 76.5% rate.
Through three games, SMU’s top receivers have already combined for eight games of at least 19 fantasy points.
WR Justin McGriff, Utah State vs. Boise State
Salary: $3,900
As previously mentioned (see Deven Thompkins) this is expected to be a fast-paced game, so rostering multiple receivers looks like a strong strategy.
Slot receiver Brandon Bowling ($6,900) has been extremely productive (22.1 fantasy points per game) but there’s reason to believe Justin McGriff may be the better option, especially with a massive salary difference.
McGriff is second on the team in target share (19.2%) and has a deeper aDOT (11.1). The difference in production is partially due to Bowling’s three touchdowns, but the 6’6” McGriff has run more routes in the red zone and seen more end zone targets than the 5’9” Bowling, so there’s reason to believe that trend won’t hold up.
WR Jaden Williams, Boston College vs. Missouri
Salary: $3,000
As a true freshman, Jaden Williams is already seeing a 19.4% target share in the Boston College offense. With his salary at the floor, that makes him an obvious player to target, even if you aren’t on board with taking a shot at quarterback Dennis Grosel.
Williams is only listed at 5’9” and he has a modest aDOT of 7.4 yards, so his ceiling isn’t as high as teammate Zay Flowers, but he’s still an incredible value on this salary. In cash games, he’s especially enticing.
WR Taye Barber, TCU vs. SMU
Salary: $3,000
TCU plays slow, leans heavily on the run game and disproportionately feeds the ball to Quintin Johnson (32% target share). However, we have to consider the possibility SMU forces the Horned Frogs into a shootout in this game in which TCU already carries an implied total of 37.5 points.
In 2020, Taye Barber led TCU with a 17.4% target share but has just two receptions this season, leading to his salary hitting the floor.
The poor production may be misleading, however, as TCU played a non-competitive game against Duquesne followed by a tough game against solid California defense in which quarterback Max Duggan struggled, completing just 17 passes.
WR Malik McClain, Florida State vs. Louisville
Salary: $3,000
It’s tough to trust anyone on the Florida State offense right now, but Malik McClain leads the team in target share (13%) and has led the Seminoles in routes every week.
WR1s against Louisville are averaging 23.5 points per game, and with McClain’s salary at the floor, he looks like a reasonable punt option.
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO AVOID
QB Tanner Mordecai, SMU at TCU
Salary: $9,000
It’s often a good strategy to fade the highest salaries, and Tanner Mordecai is the only player on this slate with a salary at $9,000 or above.
Since the start of 2020, TCU has allowed 20 or more fantasy points to quarterbacks in just four of 12 games and no one has topped 30 points.