In this college football DFS preview, I’ll break down the DraftKings Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options that come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
Key Play-Calling Data
Seconds per Play Overall Pass Rate 2nd Half Pass Rate w/ Lead 2nd Half Pass Rate Trailing South Carolina 29.2 49.1% 39.3% 51.7% Tennessee 20.8 43.1% 28.2% 57.9% Oklahoma 26.4 56.9% 47.4% 68.8% Texas 26.9 40.3% 25.0% 53.7% Arkansas 27.4 37.1% 25.9% 39.1% Ole Miss 20.8 49.1% 37.1% 51.7% West Virginia 27.5 55.6% 38.3% 82.4% Baylor 28.5 41.1% 31.5% 52.6% Maryland 25.0 55.7% 37.1% 58.8% Ohio State 24.8 50.5% 36.0% 67.8% Michigan State 24.5 46.2% 43.0% 75.0% Rutgers 27.1 46.7% 32.0% 45.8% Virginia 24.6 66.9% 51.5% 82.6% Louisville 27.3 52.5% 50.8% 56.3% Georgia 29.5 40.6% 32.1% -- Auburn 24.3 53.1% 19.6% 53.4% Boise State 24.1 56.2% 39.6% 72.5% BYU 27.6 47.1% 37.9% -- Wake Forest 22.8 47.8% 44.4% -- Syracuse 26.5 42.2% 30.3% 56.4% Wisconsin 27.7 43.8% 25.8% 56.7% Illinois 26.9 46.9% 21.5% 64.3% Penn State 25.6 54.3% 43.6% 57.1% Iowa 29.4 46.5% 41.4% 55.6%
Color Code: Blue: Top 20th Percentile | Green: 60-79th | Yellow: 40-59th | Orange: 20-39th | Red: 0-19th
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND
QB Malik Cunningham, Louisville vs. Virginia
Salary: $9,700
The total for this game is set to 69.5 and Malik Cunningham is essentially a one-man show for the Louisville offense. With at least 29 points in every game, Cunningham is matchup proof and worth rostering every week.
Cunningham’s fantasy production has been supported by two rushing touchdowns in every game, but there’s no reason to think that trend will change. When Louisville is inside the opponent’s five-yard line, Cunningham has carried the ball on seven of 13 plays; inside the 10 yard-line, he’s carried the ball on 15 of 28 plays.
QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State vs. Maryland
Salary: $9,500
After a few shaky outings, something appeared to click for redshirt-freshman C.J. Stroud last week. Stroud effortlessly picked apart and improved Rutgers defense, and was 8-8 on throws 10 or more yards downfield, accounting to Sports Info Solutions.
Ohio State has two games remaining before a huge showdown with Penn State, so there’s plenty of incentive for the coaching staff to continue to build Stroud’s confidence and allow him to pad his stats a little if the opportunity presents itself.
Maryland is allowing just 14.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but the Terps have yet to face an offense even close to Ohio State’s level 一 their only Big Ten opponents have been Iowa and Illinois.
QB Brennan Armstrong, Virginia at Louisville
Salary: $9,200
In four of five games, Brennan Armstrong has reached at least 29 fantasy points. Louisville has allowed at least 33 fantasy points to quarterbacks in three of five games, only holding Eastern Kentucky and Florida State below the threshold.
Armstrong has attempted at least 40 passes in every ACC game this year, so pairing him with at least one of his receivers looks like a strong stack.
QB Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma vs. Texas
Salary: $8,300
Though his production has fallen off, Spencer Rattler’s salary has dropped to a level where he needs to be considered. The total for this game is set to 63.5 points, so the potential is there for a shootout.
The Texas defense ranks 66th with an explosive pass rate allowed (gains of 20 or more yards) of 9.7%, so they’re potentially vulnerable to Oklahoma’s passing attack.
QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee vs. South Carolina
Salary: $7,900
Thanks in part to 37 rush attempts for 167 yards over his last three games, Hendon Hooker is starting to emerge as a legitimate fantasy weapon in the Tennessee offense.
South Carolina has yet to face a competent passing offense this season other than Georgia, when J.T. Daniels threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns on just 31 attempts. So while it’s a small sample size, this does not look like the type of defense capable of slowing down the Vols passing attack.
The total for this game is set to 56.5, but Tennessee is capable of hitting that number on its own if Josh Heupel’s fast-paced offense gets rolling.
RB Bijan Robinson, Texas vs. Oklahoma
Salary: $9,300
The salary is almost cost-prohibitive, so our exposure to Bijan Robinson should be lower than usual against a good Oklahoma defense. But with 30 or more points in four of five games, he’s still worth consideration almost every week.
In a close game against TCU last week, Texas leaned heavily on Robinson (37 touches), so we can hope volume makes up for a potential lack of explosive plays.
RB TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State vs. Maryland
Salary: $7,500
After consecutive games with only eight carries, TreVeyon Henderson might get another shot at a larger workload this week if Maryland can keep the game somewhat competitive.
Since Ohio State has a bye next week, the Buckeyes may feel more comfortable leaning on Henderson, who clearly established himself as the feature back with 24 carries in a surprisingly competitive game against Tulsa in Week 3.
Maryland ranks 76th in explosive rush rate (gains of 10 or more yards), and Henderson has demonstrated big-play ability multiple times this season.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, Virginia at Louisville
Salary: $7,000
Given the expected pace of this game and Dontayvion Wicks’s usage in the Virginia offense, this salary looks like a steal. Wicks has established himself as a dangerous deep threat, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 19.7 yards downfield.
Louisville is allowing a 52.6% completion rate at 15+ yards downfield, the worst rate in the ACC according to Sports Info Solutions.
25 of Wicks’s 40 targets (63%) have been at least 15 yards downfield, so this is a dream matchup for him.
WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State vs. Maryland
Salary: $6,800
Amazingly, Garrett Wilson has been Ohio State’s highest-scoring receiver only once this year (versus Tulsa) despite leading the team in target share (28.2%), aDOT (13.7), and end zone targets (three).
Wilson’s production has been steady, however, and with his salary below Chris Olave ($7,600), he’s still the preferred Ohio State receiver to roster moving forward.
Olave’s 23.5% target share definitely puts him in the mix too, but it probably makes sense to choose only one or the other. As 20.5-point favorites, Ohio State’s pass volume may not be strong enough to support both Wilson and Olave having huge days.
WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas at Ole Miss
Salary: $6,300
The Arkansas passing game is inconsistent but this is one of the best matchups Treylon Burks will get all season due to Ole Miss’ combination of a fast-paced offense and shaky defense.
If Ole Miss forces Arkansas to lean more heavily on the pass game, Burks should see a substantial workload, as he commands a 37.8% target share and also has three carries in the run game.
His floor is low because the Arkansas defense has the potential to shut down Ole Miss, so the best strategy in using Burks is likely to stack him with some Ole Miss playmakers in case this game turns into a shootout.
WR Gunner Romney, BYU vs. Boise State
Salary: $6,000
BYU’s big-play threat is Gunner Romney, who’s averaging 16.0 yards per reception and leads the team with a 22.6% target share since Week 2 (he missed most of Week 1 due to injury).
Boise State ranks 110th in the nation with an explosive pass rate allowed of 12.4% and this game carries a strong total of 57.5 points.
CFB DFS VALUE PLAYS
RB Tayon Fleet-Davis, Maryland at Ohio State
Salary: $5,900
In a blowout loss to Iowa last week, Tayon Fleet-Davis disappeared from the Maryland offense, finishing with just five touches. That game got out of hand so fast, however, and it might not be a good predictor of how he’ll be used against Ohio State.
Ohio State’s run defense has looked better in recent weeks after a rough start to the year, but Fleet-Davis should be involved in the passing game as well. According to Sports Info Solutions, Fleet-Davis has run routes on 31% of Maryland’s pass plays and is fourth on the team in target share (9.2%).
RB Trelon Smith, Arkansas at Ole Miss
Salary: $5,300
This salary is an incredible value for Trelon Smith, who should see an increased workload against Ole Miss. Due to the Rebels’ high-powered offense, Arkansas has added incentive to control the ball in this matchup, which could lead to a big day for Smith.
When the score is within 10 points, Smith has 44 carries compared to just 16 for his backup Raheim Sanders ($3,600).
Arkansas has only played one semi-competitive game (Texas A&M), so we haven’t seen Smith in workhorse mode often, but he did get 17 carries in that game against the Aggies. The Ole Miss defense is considerably more friendly than A&M, giving up 27.4 fantasy points per game to running backs, ranked 81st in the nation.
RB Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma vs. Texas
Salary: $5,100
I’ll give a slight edge to Kennedy Brooks because his salary is lower and he saw nearly twice as many snaps as Eric Gray ($5,400) last week, but this backfield is a committee and both are options.
The Texas run defense ranks 112th in the nation in yards before contact per attempt allowed (2.8), according to Sports Info Solutions. So whoever gets the bulk of the carries should have room to do some damage against the Longhorns.
Both players are risky, but a small amount of exposure to both Brooks and Gray seems like a worthy gamble.
RB Mike Hollins, Virginia at Louisville
Salary: $4,600
Virginia is such a pass-heavy offense, typically we want to avoid the Cavaliers’ running backs. However, the Louisville defense allows us to consider their backfield this week.
Louisville is allowing an explosive rush rate of 16.9%, ranked 117th in the nation.
Virginia’s lead back is Wayne Taulapapa ($4,900) but he has only three more carries than Mike Hollins. The main reason to prefer Hollins is his usage in the passing game. Hollins has 16 targets and runs routes on 30% of Virginia’s pass plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
Both ball carriers are strictly punt options, but appear to be in a better situation than usual due to the Cardinals’ dreadful defense.
WR Jordan Whittington, Texas vs. Oklahoma
Salary: $5,800
Due to the salary difference, Jordan Whittington is less attractive than teammate Xavier Worthy (more on him later). Over the last three weeks, Whittington has 12 targets to Worthy’s 20.
However, this rivalry always has shootout potential and Whittington does still have an 18% target share and 14.9 aDOT in the last three weeks since Worthy’s breakout.
Some exposure to Whittington makes sense, even though Worthy is the preferred choice from the Texas receiving corps.
WR Xavier Worthy, Texas vs. Oklahoma
Salary: $5,000
With just one reception for seven yards, Xavier Worthy was one of the biggest busts of Week 5, but the silver lining is a significant salary drop. Worthy still led Texas in targets (six) and air yards (111), so there’s no reason to doubt his role as WR1 in the Texas offense.
The total for this contest is set to 63.5 points with Oklahoma favored by 3.5, making it an obvious shootout candidate.
The Oklahoma defense is strong, but there should be matchups Texas can exploit. Sooners’ cornerback D.J. Graham is allowing 8.5 yards per target, so look for the Longhorns to take shots at Worthy when those two are matched up.
WR Josh Vann, South Carolina at Tennessee
Salary: $4,700
Tennesse’s pass defense has been strong this season, ranking 34th in the nation giving up just 6.5 yards per attempt. However, South Carolina will need to throw the ball to keep up the Vols’ fast-paced offense, likely leading to a strong workload for Josh Vann.
Vann is second on South Carolina with an 18.2% target share and an aDOT of 15.7 yards. He’s also led Gamecocks receivers in fantasy scoring in three of their last four games.
Tennessee ranks 11th in the SEC in completion percentage allowed at 10 or more yards downfield (47.3%) and 64% of Vann’s targets have been at that distance, per Sports Info Solutions.
WR Tyquan Thornton, Baylor vs. West Virginia
Salary: $4,600
Baylor is a run-heavy offense, so Tyquan Thornton is a boom-or-bust fantasy target. He’s been held to single-digit fantasy points in three of five games, but with a strong target share (29%) and aDOT (16.3), he’s always on our radar as a tournament gamble.
Thornton has seen 11 targets at 15 or more yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions, so we can bank on him getting a few big-play opportunities.
WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton, West Virginia at Baylor
Salary: $4,500
I’ve recommended Bryce Ford-Wheaton a few times with mixed results. Last week was rough, as he was held without a catch.
Obviously his floor is low, but the 6’3” receiver sees a 17% target share with a 12.2 aDOT and leads the team in end zone targets.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Ford-Wheaton also led West Virginia with 37 routes last week 一 10 more than anyone else 一 so his role doesn’t seem to have changed. With West Virginia a three-point underdog against Baylor, we could see an increased pass volume for the Mountaineers and hopefully a bounceback performance for Ford-Wheaton.
WR Rakim Jarrett, Maryland at Ohio State
Salary: $4,100
Maryland’s top receiver Dontay Demus Jr. went down with a season-ending injury last week, bumping Rakim Jarrett up in the pecking order.
Jarrett has already seen a 19% target share in the Terps’ offense and finished as their WR2 in fantasy scoring in three of five games.
Maryland is a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense, and the game script against Ohio State should dictate heavy involvement for Jarrett.
WR Cedric Tillman, Tennessee vs. South Carolina
Salary: $4,000
Due to his role as the deep threat in Tennessee’s offense, Cedric Tillman has a low floor 一 he’s been held to single digits twice 一 but the Vols love to take shots down the field so he’s a weekly tournament option.
Against FBS opponents, Tillman is averaging two targets per game at 20 or more yards downfield, so he’s worth a look against South Carolina in hopes those shots connect for a long score or two.
WR Jalen Brooks, South Carolina at Tennessee
Salary: $3,900
This is Jalen Brooks’s first full season at the FBS level after previously playing at D-II Wingate and not becoming eligible at South Carolina until midway through the 2020 season.
Over the last two weeks, Brooks leads the Gamecocks with 14 targets and has taken over the team lead in target share (19%).
However, Brooks has only led South Carolina receivers in fantasy scoring once (versus Kentucky) and has just two red zone targets on the year.
Having some exposure to both Vann and Brooks (but not in the same lineup) makes sense, with the understanding that at least one of them is likely to disappoint, as South Carolina’s WR2 is averaging just 9.7 fantasy points per game.
WR Ra’Shaun Henry, Virginia at Louisville
Salary: $3,300
This is a tournament dart throw suggestion only, but Ra’Shaun Henry is due for a breakout performance soon. The 6’3” senior leads Virginia in end zone targets and has seen at least two in four of five games. Amazingly, those opportunities have resulted in just one score.
Henry is also used to stretch the field (19.9 aDOT) and has a decent target share (14.1%), so clearly his ceiling is significantly higher than his salary. In an expected shootout, this is a great opportunity to take a chance on him.
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO FADE
Ole Miss Playmakers
Normally we’re targeting Ole Miss weapons, but this might be a week to mostly stay away. Per Sports Info Solutions, Arkansas ranks 14th in the nation with a 40.8% pressure rate, and may be able to cause problems for quarterback Matt Corral ($10,000), as it did last year, forcing six interceptions.
In three games against Power 5 opponents, Arkansas has yet to allow double-digit fantasy points to a wide receiver. The Rebels’ top pass-catcher Dontario Drummond ($7,700) likely reaches that threshold but it’s hard to envision him posting numbers to match his salary against the Razorbacks defense.
The total for this game is set to 66.5, so it’s reasonable to build a lineup or two stacking this game, but other than those lineups, it might be a good strategy to fade the Rebels this week.