In this college football DFS preview, I’ll break down the DraftKings Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options that come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
Key Play-Calling Data
School Seconds per Play Overall Pass Rate 2nd Half Pass Rate w/ Lead 2nd Half Pass Rate when Trailing Kansas State 29.6 43.2% 28.4% 49.0% Texas Tech 26.0 52.5% 45.9% 60.0% Oklahoma 27.0 54.7% 44.4% 60.7% Kansas 28.8 47.8% 38.7% 50.8% Cincinnati 26.1 49.6% 41.2% 47.1% Navy 30.6 20.0% 22.2% 26.0% Northwestern 25.0 48.4% 26.3% 62.2% Michigan 28.1 34.1% 26.6% 33.3% Illinois 26.4 49.5% 21.5% 65.9% Penn State 24.2 56.6% 43.6% 73.9% Wake Forest 22.8 48.9% 44.2% 56.3% Army 33.2 11.1% 6.9% 29.9% Wisconsin 29.0 38.6% 26.7% 56.7% Purdue 25.8 61.1% 47.6% 76.7% OK State 25.4 40.4% 35.4% 38.0% Iowa State 28.9 51.8% 42.9% 58.2% LSU 25.2 60.1% 56.4% 67.5% Ole Miss 20.7 46.9% 38.4% 51.7% Oregon 24.5 46.0% 37.0% 35.9% UCLA 26.3 44.1% 35.6% 59.7% Clemson 25.4 52.4% 42.0% 64.4% Pittsburgh 25.0 54.6% 38.6% 72.7% Maryland 25.5 55.8% 37.1% 56.3% Minnesota 32.3 34.8% 26.8% 40.7%
Color Code: Blue: Top 20th Percentile | Green: 60-79th | Yellow: 40-59th | Orange: 20-39th | Red: 0-19th
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND
QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss vs. LSU
Salary: $10,200
It’s unclear if Matt Corral is injured, but LSU head coach Ed Orgeron says he isn’t buying it. It certainly wouldn’t be shocking if Lane Kiffin’s comments about Corral’s supposed uncertain status were just an attempt to throw off LSU.
If Corral plays, this is an ideal matchup for him against an LSU defense giving up 23.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, ranked 99th in the nation.
According to Sports Info Solutions, LSU also blitzes on just 7.3% of opponent dropbacks, the lowest rate in the nation. Corral is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt versus non-blitzes, compared to 7.4 versus the blitz.
If Corral is unavailable, Kinkead Dent ($9,600) or Luke Altmyer ($4,500) could be his replacement.
Altmyer was Corral’s backup last week and briefly entered the game against Tennessee. Given the salary, he becomes one of the highest upside plays of the week if he’s announced as the starter.
QB Caleb Williams, Oklahoma at Kansas
Salary: $9,800
This game will be over by halftime, but Lincoln Riley typically doesn’t scale back the offense too much in blowouts, so Caleb Williams should get plenty of opportunities to rack up points in the first half.
In 2020, Spencer Rattler had 27 pass attempts and added a rushing touchdown against Kansas. Rattler also had 26 pass attempts and 32.6 fantasy points against Western Carolina earlier this season.
Williams only needed 23 pass attempts to reach 40.4 fantasy points last week, so we should assume he maintains an elite ceiling against the Jayhawks.
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA vs. Oregon
Salary: $8,100
This is the most obvious cash-game play of the week, as Dorian Thompson-Robinson has topped 20 fantasy points in every game and ranks 18th in the nation in points per game (24.2).
The total for this matchup is set to 59.5 points, with UCLA favored by 1.5, so it should be considered a candidate to turn into a shootout, making DTR a strong tournament play as well.
Oregon hasn’t faced many mobile quarterbacks this season, though the Ducks did have some issues containing Arizona’s Jordan McCloud, who ran for 64 yards on nine carries, helping to keep that game surprisingly close.
RB Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma at Kansas
Salary: $8,600
Over the last three weeks, Kennedy Brooks’s salary has climbed from $5,100 to $6,800 to $8,600. Rostering him on this salary puts a lot of faith in a small and recent sample size, but the Kansas defense should help.
The Jayhawks rank 123rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs (36.9 per game).
It’s unlikely Brooks reaches 20 or more carries as he had in each of the past two weeks, but he’s capable of posting a big number on minimal touches against Kansas.
Since the game should be decided early, Eric Gray ($5,200) is also worth a look, as his usage should increase in a blowout win.
RB Travis Dye, Oregon at UCLA
Salary: $7,400
In Oregon’s last game following C.J. Verdell’s season-ending injury, Travis Dye led Oregon in both carries (19) and targets (eight).
If that usage rate continues, Dye’s salary will skyrocket in the coming weeks, so this could be an incredible value in this matchup, especially given this game’s shootout potential.
RB Zach Charbonnet, UCLA vs. Oregon
Salary: $7,000
In each of UCLA’s last four games, Zach Charbonnet has over 20 carries. On the year, he’s seen a 26% opportunity share in the Bruins’ offense and runs routes on 39% of their pass plays, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Charbonnet also leads the team with nine carries inside the five-yard line, so despite inconsistent fantasy production (only two games over 20 points) he stands out as the obvious running back or receiver to target on this offense.
RB Hassan Haskins, Michigan vs. Northwestern
Salary: $6,500
Although Blake Corum ($7,100) is averaging more fantasy points per game, Hassan Haskins has started every game for Michigan and out-touched Corum 41 to 34 over the last two games.
Haskins also has 17 carries inside the opponent's five-yard time, compared to six for Corum.
These numbers certainly point to Haskins being the Michigan running back to favor, though both players should be on our radar against a Northwestern defense giving up 30.7 fantasy points per game to running backs.
RB Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State at Texas Tech
Salary: $7,700
The Kansas State offense is the Deuce Vaughn show, as he leads the Wildcats in rush attempts (18 per game) and target share (23.4%)
The Texas Tech defense ranked 110th in fantasy points allowed to running backs (32.2 per game) and three individual running backs have reached at least 29 fantasy points against the Red Raiders.
WR Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss vs. LSU
Salary: $7,800
In three of six games, Dontario Drummond has led Ole Miss receivers in scoring, and he’s been their WR2 in the other three games.
WR1s are averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game against LSU, ranked 103rd in the country.
It’s worth mentioning, however, that LSU has held slot receivers to just 5.8 yards per target, the 11th lowest rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
Exposure to Drummond still makes sense given Ole Miss’s explosive offense, but perhaps we should also have increased exposure to outside receiver Braylon Sanders ($5,000) 一 assuming he’s healthy, after being knocked out of last week’s game at Tennessee.
Outside receivers are averaging 9.1 yards per target against LSU, ranked 102nd.
If Sanders is unable to go, Dannis Jackson ($3,800) will likely see an increased role in his place.
WR Jahan Dotson, Penn State vs. Illinois
Salary: $7,200
WR1s are averaging 21.8 fantasy points per game against Illinois, ranked 104th in the nation.
The Penn State passing game revolves around Jahan Dotson, who sees a 32% target share with an 11.1 average depth of target (aDOT).
WR Erik Ezukanma, Texas Tech vs. Kansas State
Salary: $6,500
There were high expectations for Erik Ezukanma entering the year and he’s been mildly disappointing with 17.1 fantasy points per game. The usage, however, remains strong.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Ezukanma leads Texas Tech with five targets in the end zone but has zero catches on those targets. In a likely high-scoring game, he should get more scoring opportunities against Kansas State.
If you’re interested in stacking this game, also consider Kaylon Geiger ($5,900), who is the second option in the Red Raiders passing game with a 20% target share and a solid 11.9 aDOT.
CFB DFS VALUE PLAYS
QB Sean Clifford, Penn State vs. Illinois
Salary: $6,900
Penn State is coming off a bye week, so there’s a chance Sean Clifford has recovered from his recent injury 一 he was knocked out of his last game against Iowa.
Illinois ranks 109th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (25.5 per game).
Due to the injury, low exposure to Clifford is probably prudent, but this is a significantly discounted salary 一 his first salary below $7,000 一 especially considering the weak defense.
QB Skylar Thompson, Kansas State at Texas Tech
Salary: $6,000
This salary is an incredible value for Skylar Thompson, who has scored over 20 fantasy points in all three of the full games in which he’s played.
Since returning from a knee injury, Thompson hasn’t been a running threat 一 he has -20 rushing yards over the last two games 一 but Texas Tech ranks 100th in sack rate, so we can hope he’ll avoid negative points in that area this week.
QB Jason Bean, Kansas vs. Oklahoma
Salary: $5,200
Due to his success as a runner, Jason Bean is a legitimate fantasy consideration on this cheap salary. Bean has reached at least 19 fantasy points in three of six games, peaking at 32.8 against Coastal Carolina.
The floor is very low 一 he had single-digit points against Texas Tech and Iowa State 一 but Oklahoma has allowed at least 20 fantasy points to quarterbacks in five of six games against FBS opponents.
Tulane’s Michael Pratt used his mobility to have success against Oklahoma in Week 1 (30.2 fantasy points) so we know there’s a decent ceiling for Bean in this matchup.
RB Bryce Williams, Minnesota vs. Maryland
Salary: $5,400
Three Minnesota running backs had at least seven carries last week, but Bryce Williams led the way with 17 for 127 yards and 21.7 fantasy points.
Maryland’s defense is allowing 30.4 fantasy points per game to running backs, ranked 94th in the country.
Minnesota runs almost exclusively from 11 personnel. Against that formation, Maryland is allowing 5.5 yards per carry, ranked 89th, according to Sports Info Solutions.
RB Kazmeir Allen, UCLA vs. Oregon
Salary: $3,300
He’s listed as a running back on DraftKings, but Kazmeir Allen plays receiver for UCLA. In Kyle Phillips's ($7,000) absence, Allen saw an increased workload last week against Washington.
Though Allen hasn’t made a fantasy impact 一 he peaked at 7.8 points last week 一 he leads UCLA in targets over the Bruins last two games.
Keep an eye on Phillips’s status, and if he’s unable to go, Allen looks like a good tournament punt play.
WR Jadon Haselwood, Oklahoma at Kansas
Salary: $5,400
Over the last two games, Jadon Haselwood has emerged as Oklahoma’s number-one weapon with a 25% target share, including eight targets in Caleb Williams’s first start last week.
There’s been zero consistency from the Oklahoma receiving corps this season 一 four different players have been their highest-scoring receiver 一 but the offense looks much improved since Williams took over, so maybe Haselwood is the new WR1 at Oklahoma.
WR Cornelius Johnson, Michigan vs. Northwestern
Salary: $4,900
Michigan only throws the ball 34% of the time, so Cornelius Johnson will need to do his damage on a small workload. However, with an aDOT of 18.0, Johnson is capable of producing on only a few targets.
Johnson has two games over 20 fantasy points and every other game has been in the single digits, so he’s a boom-or-bust option.
The Northwestern defense ranks 126th in pressure rate, so quarterback Cade McNamara should have the time in the pocket to take a few shots downfield at Johnson.
WR Phillip Brooks, Kansas State at Texas Tech
Salary: $4,400
Kansas State is a run-heavy offense but this salary is a good value for slot receiver Phillip Brooks given his 22% target share and 9.6 aDOT.
Texas Tech ranks 117th in the nation in yards per target allowed to slot receivers (9.5), according to Sports Info Solutions.
WR Malik Nabers, LSU at Ole Miss
Salary: $3,700
LSU’s receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, and last week the new-look unit was led by Malik Nabers, who ran a team-high 20 routes and led the Tigers’ with six targets. Although he produced only 6.6 fantasy points, his target share and an 11.3 aDOT indicates a nice ceiling in this matchup against Ole Miss.
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO AVOID
QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati at Navy
Salary: $8,900
Despite playing a more difficult opponent (at least from a fantasy perspective), Desmond Ridder’s salary has climbed by $900 this week.
No quarterback has reached more than 22 fantasy points against Navy, mostly due to its slow pace and ability to control the game with its option offense.
Ridder’s salary should have been discounted for this matchup, but since it went in the opposite direction, it’s best to stay away this week.
RB SaRodorick Thompson, Texas Tech vs. Kansas State
Salary: $5,900
This game is a candidate for stacks, but it looks like a tough matchup for SaRodorick Thompson. According to Sports Info Solutions, Kansas State is allowing 3.8 yards per carry versus 11 personnel, Texas Tech’s preferred formation, which ranks 13th in the nation.
If fellow running back Tahj Brooks ($6,800) returns from injury, Thompson is definitely a player to fade, but even if he remains the lead back it’s probably best to proceed with caution.
WR Jaray Jenkins, LSU at Ole Miss
Salary: $5,700
Jaray Jenkins was the breakout star last week with 27 fantasy points, but it came on just four targets. It’s safe to assume 75% of his targets won’t result in touchdowns again. He also finished third on the team in routes with 17.
The salary isn’t crazy, so maybe he’s worth throwing into a couple lineups, but there’s no reason to believe he’s now the number-one weapon in this offense as the salary bump would indicate.
If Brian Thomas Jr. ($4,000) is unable to suit up 一 he also had four targets on 18 routes last week 一 perhaps Jenkins becomes more attractive.