Commanders vs 49ers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 16

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers Saturday afternoon Christmas Eve game.

• The 49ers are first in the NFL in point differential since Week 8 (+116 points).
• The 49ers have scored 61.7% of the points scored in their games this season, the highest rate in the league.
• Since Week 11, the 49ers have allowed 0.87 points per drive, the fewest in the league.
• Over the same span, Washington has allowed 1.27 points per drive, second in the league.
• San Francisco is first in success rate against running back carries (67.8%) while Washington is third (67.2%).
• Washington has converted 24.5% of their third downs over their past four games, the lowest rate in the league.

Quarterback

Brock Purdy: Purdy has opened his career up with two passing touchdowns in each of the past three weeks. In his two starts, Purdy has closed as the QB6 (21.7 points) and the QB14 (16.5 points) while he has posted 14.4, 15.4, and 16.7 passing points in his three appearances. That is a consistent start and output as a high-end QB2 and fringe QB1 if you are really thin. 

It is still a very small sample, but Purdy’s 0.507 passing points per attempt would rank only behind Tua Tagovailoa (0.575), Patrick Mahomes (0.540), and Jalen Hurts (0.510) on the season.

Purdy has done a good job doing exactly what this system has asked and played good point guard. Purdy’s average depth of target is just 5.5 yards downfield (30th) with 52.9% of his passing yardage coming after the catch.  Just 7.1% of Purdy’s throws have been 20 yards or further downfield (24th over the past three weeks), but when they have dialed up shot plays, Purdy is 3-of-6 with three touchdown passes on those attempts.

Washington is the best defense Purdy has faced on paper so far in his brief time under center. Over their past 10 games, Washington has allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt (third in the NFL) with a touchdown rate of 3.4% (sixth). The only quarterback to score 20 or more fantasy points against Washington over that span was Jalen Hurts, so it is hard to fully lock into ceiling expectations if you are streaming Purdy or plugging him into 2QB formats. 

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke threw for a season-high 8.6 yards per attempt on Sunday night but closing the week as the QB19 (13.3 points), Heinicke has finished as a QB1 in just two of his eight starts. Heinicke is 21st in passing points per attempt (0.405) while Washington is 10% below pass rate expectation with him under center. 

This is not a spot to chase Heinicke as more than a forced 2QB option. San Francisco is allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt (fifth), a 2.6% touchdown rate (second), and 11.1 passing points per game (fourth).

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey continued to cash in on his role in the offense with injures to surrounding offensive pieces. Last Thursday McCaffrey turned 22 touches into 138 yards with a touchdown. 

McCaffrey has now played four full games with the 49ers and Elijah Mitchell inactive, ending those weeks as the RB2, RB1, RB2, and RB4. Over the past two weeks, McCaffrey has played 66-of-67 snaps in the first half of games while Jordan Mason has played just one snap.

We are locking in McCaffrey at the top of running back ranks, but Washington will put up a fight against the run. They are allowing 10.5 rushing points per game to backs, fifth in the league. Just 19.6% of all backfield carries against them have resulted in a first down or touchdown, third in the league. But as we saw on Sunday night when Saquon Barkley was able to produce 120 yards and a score on 23 touches, combo backs with huge workloads can still get there while McCaffrey is part of a certifiably better offense.

Washington RBs: Antonio Gibson played 38 snaps (60.3%) on Sunday night compared to 24 snaps for Brian Robinson (38.1%), but Robinson out touched Gibson 13-to 7 while posting 107 total yards compared to 27 for Gibson. 

Robinson has now gone over 100 yards in each of his past three games. Those games came against the Giants (x2) and the Falcons, two bottom-rung run defenses. Things will be much more of a test here against a San Francisco defense allowing a league-low 3.3 YPC to backs and league-low 7.9 rushing points per game to backs. No running back has even rushed for 60 yards against the 49ers this season while the only back they have allowed 100 total yards to this season now plays for their team.

Robinson is a touchdown-or-bust FLEX with Gibson as a floor-based FLEX in full-PPR formats.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin caught all six of his targets on Sunday night for 70 yards but was once again capped by the team's passing volume. Washington has thrown the ball fewer than 30 times in five of Heinicke’s eight starts. In their games with more than 30 passes over that span, McLaurin has had games of 5-73-1, 6-113-0, and 8-105-1. 

We can bet on Heinicke having to throw the ball 30-plus times here based on the San Francisco run defense. While the matchup is sticky overall for passing production versus the 49ers, they are 18th in the league in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 targets (14.9). The 49ers are seventh in points allowed per game to boundary receivers as a pulling element in the other direction, where McLaurin is playing 82% of his snaps. With both components in play, McLaurin is a WR2.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk was limited to two catches for 19 yards on four targets Thursday. He now has been a WR2 or better in just one of his past six games.

Aiyuk only has four catches in Purdy’s two starts, but he has run into two harder matchups for boundary wideouts while San Francisco has attacked teams underneath. 

The latter could still be an approach we see the 49ers glide into with Purdy under center, but Aiyuk gets a much better matchup here for the 49ers to incorporate him into the game plan. Washington is 23rd in points allowed per game to boundary wideouts while the previous two weeks were against teams that were 13th and second in that department. Aiyuk drew nine targets in Purdy’s first game action in Week 13 against a Miami defense that ranked 19th against receivers out wide.

We still should be handling Aiyuk as an upside WR3 based on the potential for a thin target count, but the target tree in San Francisco has still been thinned out due to injuries while this matchup offers more opportunity to play for the upside angle. 

Jahan Dotson: Dotson came out of the bye with a 4-105-1 game on six targets Sunday night. That is the second game in a row he has found the end zone against the Giants. 

Dotson has been a touchdown-or-bust wideout as a rookie. 38.3% of his fantasy points have come via touchdowns, trailing only Christian Watson and Mecole Hardman. In his four games without a touchdown, he has 8.0 total fantasy points. 

The silver lining if you are chasing Dotson as a boom-or-bust FLEX is that he has ramped up to running a route on 89.4% and 88.2% of the dropbacks the past two games.

Curtis Samuel: Samuel caught 3-of-5 targets for 44 yards on Sunday night. Samuel has been bypassed by Dotson as the secondary target and has been a fringe role player since Heinicke took over under center. With Heinicke playing, Samuel has just 15.1% of the team targets with one touchdown grab. 

Samuel is floor-based WR4/FLEX in full-PPR formats, but if you are looking for any straws to grasp, Samuel is playing 70% of his snaps in the slot. San Franciso has been far more susceptible to slot receivers, ranking 30th in points allowed per game to slot wideouts.

Tight End

George Kittle: Kittle took advantage of a stellar matchup to exploit Thursday night. Kittle collected 4-of-5 targets for 93 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Both touchdowns came on perfectly schemed plays that allowed Kittle to coast into the paint. 

Pacing tight ends in scoring last week, Kittle now has five games as the TE7 or higher in weekly scorer (two as the TE1) paired with another seven weeks as the TE15 or lower. He is a boom-or-bust TE1, but one I still believe is the biggest beneficiary from the injury to Deebo Samuel outside of Christian McCaffrey. 

Washington has been strong against tight ends overall, allowing 5.7 yards per target (fifth) with a 4.0% touchdown rate (13th) allowed to the position. 

More Week 16 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

JAX at NYJ | BUF at CHI | NO at CLE | HOU at TEN | SEA at KC | NYG at MIN | CIN at NE | DET at CAR | ATL at BAL | WAS at SF | PHI at DAL | LVR at PIT | GB at MIA | DEN at LAR | TB at ARI | LAC at IND