Cowboys vs Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers Sunday afternoon game.

• The Packers are -63.0 points versus the spread this season, the worst in the league. 
• The Cowboys are a league-best 13-4 against the spread as a favorite going back to last season (3-0 ATS in 2022).
• The Cowboys are +21 in sack differential than their opponents, the largest in the league.
• The Packers have scored on 22.0% of their possessions over the past four weeks, the lowest rate in the league.
• Dallas is one of two remaining teams (Titans being the other) to score on 100% of their red zone possessions. 
• Green Bay has scored on 73.1% of their red zone possessions, 31st in the league.
• 82.4% (14-of-17) of the Green Bay touchdowns have come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
• 55.6% (10-of-18) of the Dallas touchdowns have come via rushing, fifth in the league.
• The Packers are allowing a league-low 47.3 non-passing points per game for fantasy.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott: Prescott has been hyper-efficient since coming back, completing 76.9% of his passes for 8.8 yards per pass attempt. We also got to see Prescott run a bit prior to the bye, adding 34 yards and a rushing touchdown to his line against the Bears.

Both of those games came against soft defenses. The Packers have been a disappointing unit based on expectations, but they also have allowed just 10.6 passing points per game (fifth). They have allowed just one QB1 scoring week this year, and it was a QB11 finish to Kirk Cousins back in Week 1. They have not been challenged by a litany of front-end quarterbacks by any means, but Josh Allen is also on that list. Allen (17.6 points) and Cousins (19.1 points) had the best games against them, an area that is fitting for Prescott as backend QB1.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers and this offense had everything set up on paper last week and they failed to deliver. Rodgers ended up as the QB16 (13.6 points) against the worst defense in the league. He threw three interceptions and completed a season-low 53.5% of his passes.

Rodgers now has a high finish as QB12 this season.

This week, the Packers get another stingy draw. The Cowboys are first in the league in pressure rate (41.9%), third in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.3 Y/A), fifth in touchdown rate (3.1%), and sixth in passing points allowed per game (10.6). Rodgers is back to 2QB status.

Running Back

Tony Pollard (TRUST): Pollard gets another week as a front-end RB1 option with Ezekiel Elliott expected to be held out another week after the bye.

In Pollard’s breakout game this season against Chicago, he still only had 15 touches and 60% of the backfield touches. That is an achievable area again here if we cannot expect the same type of efficiency that landed 147 yards and three touchdowns.

The Packers can be run on. They are allowing 4.98 YPC to backs (27th) while ranking 27th in success rate (56.9%) against running backs. Green Bay is allowing a first down or touchdown on 23.6% of running back carries, 19th in the league.

Packers RBs: Aaron Jones is the latest running back to deal with an ankle injury as he was forced to leave last week’s game after 30 snaps. The team has not expressed that the injury was serious was Jones, but after seeing what happened to D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor as they continue to work through ankle issues, you cannot fault gamers for operating with some trepidation here. — especially since Jones has already rushed for 25 yards or fewer now in three of his past four games. 

We will keep tabs on his status throughout the week, but Jones is shaping up to be a volatile RB2 if active.

Even with Jones ailing last week and facing the Lions, A.J. Dillon had just 44 yards on 13 touches. Dillon is 42nd among 46 qualifying backs in rate of carries to gain 10 or more yards this season (7.1%), the same rate as Cam Akers.

Dillon can get a bump as an RB2/FLEX playing with a limited version of Jones but needs Jones to be inactive to at least work up to being a volume-based RB2 if the backfield is all his. 

The Cowboys' run defense has been softer than their pass defense. They are 15th in rushing points allowed per game (12.3) to backfields.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb went into the bye coming off a 5-77-1 game against the Bears. He received another 26.9% of the team targets as his peripherals continue to shine. 

Lamb is 10th among all wideouts in yards per route run (2.26), third in team target share (31.6%), fifth in share of air yards (40.2%), and third in target rate per route run (29.7%). 

The only thing keeping him from crashing the front end of the WR1 party where those rate stats reside is that the Dallas passing game has had just 26 team targets available per game over the past five games. As a result, Lamb has single-digit targets in all but one of those games despite his lofty target metrics. With the counting targets lower than the wideouts that reside at the top of the fantasy space, Lamb is still looking for his first 100-yard game this season.

We need Dallas to be pressed into a heavier passing script to break through Lamb’s ceiling where we know it can go. 

Green Bay is 23rd in points allowed per game to WR1 targets (15.7) so there are no matchup concerns here using Lamb as a back-end WR1 who has larger upside.

Allen Lazard: Lazard is the sole member of this passing game we can place any faith in. Catching 4-of-10 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown this past week, Lazard has now been a top-30 scorer in each of his past six games played with a pair of WR1 scoring weeks over that span. Lazard has seen 21.5% of the team targets over those games with at least 20% in five in a row.

Lazard has worked his way into weekly WR2 status based on his target share and scoring upside.

Lazard has jarring splits versus man and zone coverage. Dallas is middle of the pack in playing man coverage 24.5% of the time (16th) so he will see some this week. Against man coverage, Lazard has been targeted on 29.5% of his routes while posting 2.56 yards per route run. Against zone coverage he has been targeted on 14.8% of his routes with 1.21 yards per route run. 

Michael Gallup: Gallup went into the bye catching 4-of-6 targets for 49 yards against the Bears. His 23.1% target share was the second-highest he has had in a game this season, but that yardage was also a season-high. 

Gallup has yet to catch more than four passes in a game since returning to the field while he has a high finish at WR35 in a given week, which was also the only week he caught a touchdown. Gallup is still more of a hold than start out of the bye, looking for him to get extended use and production over the back half of the season. 

Tight End

Dalton Schultz: Schultz largely had a down front half of the season, limited by a knee injury and the loss of Prescott. But playing alongside Prescott and hopefully coming out of the bye fully healthy, he is set up for a strong finish to the season at a position still wide open behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.

Schultz is a TE1 playing with Prescott. In the three games that Schultz has played with Prescott this season he has finished as a TE1 in all three. Schultz has seen 21.9%, 20%, and 26.9% of the team targets in those games. Schultz has been targeted on 30.6% of his routes run with Prescott under center compared to being targeted on 13.9% of his routes run with Cooper Rush under center. 

The Packers have been a tough matchup for tight ends so far this season. They are allowing just 2.9 catches per game to the position, the fewest in the league. They are allowing just 5.7 yards per target to the position, which is fourth. But they have allowed a 7.9% touchdown rate, which is 25th. They also have not faced a single TE1 option yet on the season, so we can take the rates stats allowed with a grain of salt.

Robert Tonyan: Just when we were willing to take a shot on Tonyan as a streamer against Detroit, he only managed to catch 3-of-4 targets for 29 yards. Tonyan has now hit 40 yards receiving in just one game this season while finding the end zone just once. 

Big Bob is touchdown-or-bust TE2 against a Dallas defense that has allowed just one touchdown to an opposing tight end and 5.5 yards per target (third) to the position. 

More Week 10 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

ATL at CAR | SEA vs TB | CLE at MIA | DEN at TEN | DET at CHI | HOU at NYG | JAX at KC | MIN at BUF | NO at PIT | IND at LVR | ARI at LAR | DAL at GB | LAC at SF | WAS at PHI