Pace of play is one of the most important factors of any slate. Using it to identify teams that are likely to run more plays is something that I’ve spoken about at length in this article each week.
This week, I pulled the pace from the past five weeks out to see who’s speeding up and who’s slowing down.
Some quick hit notes:
- Tennessee has slowed down quite a bit from 3rd to 17th.
- Houston has gone from 8th to 22nd.
- The Los Angeles Rams have jumped all the way from 21st to 6th.
NFC West Showdown
The Rams-Cardinals game isn’t the highest total on the slate but with the line set at 48.5 and a small spread, we could theoretically be looking at a shootout. Two teams in the top eight is nothing to sneeze at. Besides pace, another area to target is a team with a concentrated target tree.
Nearly 50% of Jared Goff’s ($5,800) targets go to Cooper Kupp ($6,100) and Robert Woods ($5,900). Kupp’s target numbers have been all over the place this season. In the last four weeks, though, he’s had 13- and 20-target games. He just hasn’t been able to stack touchdowns into a single game. Kupp hasn’t found the end zone since the first week in October. Woods is used all over the field. In the past two weeks, he’s seen 30 opportunities.
As you can see, they are all over the most frequent plays for the Rams. Playing both of them in a lineup is a great way to differentiate because most people just pick one. On the other side of the game, Kenyan Drake ($5,700) is interesting as a run-back option in GPPs. He saw 26 opportunities last week which was a season-high. The theory would be that Drake is more of the positive game-script back in the offense, but even in a losing effort against the Patriots he was used early and often.
A Piece of the Biggest Pies
If we’re looking for wide receivers to target, then picking teams that target their wide receivers the most would be a good place to start. It’s a good indication of a team’s philosophy as well as a quarterback’s tendencies. If a team targets their wide receivers a lot, it’s an indication that we can trust them in stacks.
We see LA towards the top, so that’s a good sign for our Kupp and Woods love. You’ll notice that a lot of the top teams aren’t on the main slate. That doesn’t mean that we can’t still use this information, though. A mistake that people make is looking at the whole league when making these decisions instead of looking at with a slate-specific view. We don’t care about the teams that are off the main slate when making lineups for the main slate. That seems intuitive, but we have to build lineups within the framework of the slate.
Houston is an interesting example. We know that Will Fuller is out for the season with news of his PED suspension. Deshaun Watson ($7,500) will probably go under-rostered thanks to the loss of his game-changing target, but I think that’s a mistake. Watson will still look to target his wide receivers often. The Colts have been running plays faster over the last month and this could be a pace-up spot for the Texans.
A double stack of the Texans with Brandin Cooks ($5,600) and Keke Coutee ($3,500) might feel a little gross. The receivers on their own will likely be very chalky, but combined two chalky options from the same team often lowers their effective exposure. That might not sound like it makes much sense, but people are still not double-stacking enough and we can exploit that here.
If you go that route, we can slot in Jonathan Taylor ($5,700) on the other side of the game. His arrow was pointing up two weeks ago before having to sit out last week.
The Texans have been one of the most generous teams to opposing running backs. Couple that with Rivers’ willingness to target running backs, and we could be in for an absolute explosion from Taylor in Week 13.
The Forgotten Man
I’m not one for narratives, but it’s uncanny how so many running backs have come back from injury and smashed in their return to the field. That’s not a reason, on its own, to play Myles Gaskin ($5,900). His workload, pre-injury, is the reason to play him.
He saw about two-thirds of the running back carries to start the season. More importantly, he added at least four targets in every single game to start the season. It’s very rare to find a running back with this workload at this price. Throw in the fact that he’ll be single-digit rostered and he’s a must-play. Oh, did I mention that he’s a home favorite by 11.5 points?