DFS Stacks & Sneaky Plays: Week 9

This season has been interesting from slate to slate for a variety of reasons. I can’t think of a more stark contrast for cash lines than Week 7 to Week 8. In Week 7, my cash lineup put up nearly 180 points and I got swept. In Week 8, my cash lineup put up 138 points and I swept all of my H2Hs and Double Ups. Shrug emoji. 

This is one of the main reasons why I laugh when people talk about finding guys that can 3x or whatever threshold they think is reasonable for DFS relevancy. The slates all exist in a vacuum to a certain extent. Finding correlation plays within the context of the slate is not just one of the important things, it’s the only important thing. As we work our way through the slate, that is our priority. I try my best to build those correlations into this article each week, but when you’re building lineups it’s important to remember that you shouldn’t have a bunch of one-off, random plays in your GPP lineups just because they’re “the best plays”. 

The lineup above was my best GPP lineup of the week. As you can see, the only uncorrelated play is the Dolphins DST. This is the structure that allows for GPP takedowns. It’s worth noting, though, that it also ends in some pretty low scoring lineups. As you raise your ceiling with stacks, you’re also lowering your floor. To be totally honest, if you’re hoping for min-cashes then GPPs aren’t for you. 

Fast and Furious

Pace is a great starting point when looking through a slate. I like to use the pace of play tool here to see how teams are trending over the past month of the season compared to their season-long numbers. 

Over the span, Buffalo has sped up a bit and gone from 22nd in the league to 14th. Stefon Diggs ($7,400) is a priority target for me this week. The game environment should be excellent with Seattle, who’s 11th in pace and has a mediocre defense. Diggs is essentially lapping the other pass catchers in targets. 

He fits in with where Seattle is porous in pass defense. Although to be fair, that’s pretty much everywhere on the field. 

Diggs is averaging 11 targets per game over the past month of the season. His efficiency has dipped as Josh Allen’s ($7,000) hot start has cooled off. This game looks like it could shootout and go over with ease. DK Metcalf ($7,800) and Tyler Lockett ($6,800) are fine options as correlation plays. If you can find the value, I prefer Metcalf at lower ownership than Lockett.

Running Back Target of the Week

James Conner ($6,900) is one of my favorite options at the running back position this week. He’s been excellent with the exception of that odd performance early in the season. 

Combine his workload with being a two-touchdown favorite and this is the ultimate smash spot. With Pittsburgh, we’re always concerned that the touchdowns come through the air. That’s a real consideration again this week but if the touchdowns go his way then he could break the slate. The obvious correlation play is the Pittsburgh DST ($4,900). The Cowboys are starting either Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush this week. That’s all of the analysis that’s necessary for the Steelers defense.

The issue with this particular correlation, or stacking the Steelers passing attack, is that there’s not a soul on the Dallas side that I even want to take a flier on given the QB situation. 

Min Priced Wide Receiver?? Min Priced Wide Receiver!!

Matt Ryan ($6,400) hasn’t shown his typical ceiling this year. Over the past three weeks, he’s hit the passing bonus twice which is a good sign. When the touchdowns have come, they’ve come in bunches. Ryan has had five games with zero or one touchdowns but he also has two games with four touchdowns. 

Calvin Ridley is going to miss this week’s contest. Most of the targets will be concentrated between Julio Jones ($7,200) and Hayden Hurst ($4,100). What happens with Ridley out, though? There’s a chance that Christian Blake ($3,000) is the direct backup and slots into a percentage of that role. Even if he only sees four or five targets, he’s in play at $3,000, especially during a week where we have so many juicy options at the top of the salary scale. 

The correlation play on the Broncos side of the ball is Jerry Jeudy ($4,700). He is reasonably priced and is coming off of the best game of his career. If he found the endzone in Week 8, we’d be talking about him in a completely different light. 

The rookie saw ten targets and his highest air yard total of the season last week. The Broncos used him in every zone of the field. 

If you walk down the street and get the first ten people you see to form a defense, you might be able to play the pass as well as the Falcons so far this year. We could be looking back at Jeudy’s coming out party come this time next week.