In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME STACK TO TARGET: CLEVELAND BROWNS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
This matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings is an intriguing stack option. It likely won’t be the most popular stack selection, but if we correctly predict the game script, this slightly contrarian stack could pay off.
The Minnesota Vikings have struggled against the run this season, allowing a success rate of 54% or higher versus both 11 and 12 personnel formations. Knowing Cleveland prefers to be a run-first offense and mixes up their personnel packages, we should assume their entire playbook is open and will have success against the Vikings.
Although Nick Chubb carries a high salary ($7,000) this looks like a matchup in which he’ll see a strong workload and find success.
If you roster Chubb, consider adding Vikings receivers Justin Jefferson ($7,300) and Adam Thielen ($6,800). Jefferson and Thielen have combined for 47% of Minnesota’s total targets and 70% of their deep ball attempts.
If Cleveland controls the game on the ground and Minnesota is forced into a heavy pass volume while playing from behind, Chubb, Jefferson, and Thielen could potentially all be in line for big days.
DFS VALUE: PITTSBURGH STEELERS TIGHT END PAT FREIERMUTH
Pittsburgh Steelers receivers Dionte Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both banged up and their status for Sunday’s game against the Green Bay Packers is uncertain. In the event they’re unavailable, there should be some value out there on the Steelers’ roster.
Ben Roethlisberger peppered running back Najee Harris with targets last week, but rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth also benefited from the absence of Johnson and Smith-Schuster for most of the game With five targets against the Cincinnati Bengals, Freiermuth doubled his total from the first two weeks.
It’s also worth noting Freiermuth saw more targets than veteran tight end Eric Ebron for the second consecutive week, yet carries a lower salary ($3,100 compared to $3,300).
Freiermuth’s target share (9%) wasn’t great, but Pittsburgh's extreme pass volume could continue this week against Green Bay.
Pittsburgh’s 76% pass rate when trailing is the second-highest in the league, and the Steelers are expected to be playing from behind once again versus the Packers.
DFS VALUE: CHICAGO BEARS RECEIVER DARNELL MOONEY
After last week’s performance against the Cleveland Browns, it’s certainly risky to roster anyone from the Chicago Bears offense. However, with salaries dropping and a favorable matchup against the Detroit Lions, we shouldn’t write off the Bears entirely.
Darnell Mooney ($3,900) is banged up (groin injury) and was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, so monitor his status before rostering him. If he suits up, however, this is a potentially great matchup against a bad Lions defense.
Excluding plays inside the red zone, Detroit has surrendered at least 20 yards on 19% of pass plays this season, the worst rate in the league.
Chicago’s deep passing game has been inconsistent, but Mooney has commanded a 60% target share on the deep ball. That rate will fall to a more realistic rate eventually, but his 27% target share on the deep ball last year was strong as well.
Knowing Chicago wants to look his way when challenging the defense downfield, and Detroit’s pass defense has been a liability, we should consider Mooney a candidate to cash in on a couple of big plays downfield in this matchup.