In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS STACK: DETROIT LIONS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
It’s tough to find an obvious game to stack on the main slate, as only three carry a total over 50 points. The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings total is only 49 points, but there may be some value in stacking this game based on an expected Vikings victory.
Minnesota’s offense was shut down against the Cleveland Browns last week, but this looks like the perfect matchup to bounce back. The Lions’ defense ranks dead last in explosive pass rate allowed, with 18% of pass plays producing 20 or more yards.
Both Justin Jefferson ($7,700) and Adam Thielen ($6,600) are obvious candidates to roster and K.J. Osborn ($3,800) might be worth consideration as well. Osborn is clearly featured less prominently in the offense, but has produced a higher explosive play rate than Thielen.
As for the Lions, when Detroit is trailing D’Andre Swift ($6,100) and T.J. Hockenson ($5,500) have seen the bulk of the target share.
Pairing either Jefferson or Thielen with Osborn and either Swift or Hockenson would give you a trio of players in this matchup at a relatively modest salary cost.
DFS VALUE: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS RUNNING BACK DAMIEN HARRIS
Due to inconsistent usage, Damien Harris’s salary has been in a reasonable range all season. He has a low floor every week, but the Houston Texans provide one of the best matchups he’ll see this year.
New England mixes up its run formations, slightly favoring 12 personnel but also mixing in 11 and 21 personnel at least 25% of the time each. Against Houston, it shouldn’t matter what formation they line up in, as the Texans are among the worst at defending the run in every situation.
Using our personnel grouping data, we can see Houston ranks among the worst teams in the league in rushing success rate allowed in each of New England’s preferred formations, with 11 personnel (63% success rate) being the worst.
Harris’s low floor makes him a risky addition to cash game lineups, but his ceiling against Houston is worth a tournament gamble.
DFS VALUE: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TIGHT END JUWAN JOHNSON
The New Orleans Saints have been selectively deploying tight end Juwan Johnson, giving him a low floor, but his red zone usage gives him high upside.
Johnson is currently tied with Alvin Kamara for the team lead in red zone targets, and he has scored on all three opportunities.
Johnson is also tied for the team lead in third and fourth-down targets, implying some level of trust which could lead to a larger role in the near future.
DFS VALUE: TENNESSEE TITANS RECEIVER NICK WESTBROOK-IKHINE
With Julio Jones and A.J. Brown out due to hamstring injuries, Tennessee Titans wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine took on a bigger role in the offense last week against the New York Jets.
Westbrook-Ikhine finished third on the team with eight targets, including two on the deep ball.
The production wasn’t great (three receptions for 29 yards), but we should maintain strong expectations for him based on that workload 一 assuming Jones and Brown are unable to suit up in Week 5, of course.
Entering last week’s action, Westbrook-Ikhine had hauled in six of his seven targets, so the low catch rate in Week 4 looks like an outlier.
On a cheap $3,700 salary against a weak Jacksonville Jaguars secondary, Westbrook-Ikhine looks like one of the better values on this DFS slate.