In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME STACK TO TARGET: KANSAS CHIEFS AT TENNESSEE TITANS
The Kansas City Chiefs defense can’t stop anyone’s run game right now, so there’s little reason to expect them to slow down Derrick Henry ($9,200).
Our defensive personnel grouping chart shows the Chiefs are the only team in the league allowing a 60% success rate against the run versus both 11 and 12 personnel.
The Tennessee Titans vary their run formations more than most teams but 11 personnel (47%) and 12 personnel (24%) still account for 71% of the Titans’ run game 一 and against this defense it shouldn’t matter what the formation looks like, Henry will eat regardless.
On the flip side, Tennessee’s defense should allow Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) and the Chiefs offense to do their usual damage as well.
The Titans rank 22nd in explosive pass rate allowed (percentage of attempts gaining 20 or more yards) at 11%.
Rostering both Mahomes and Henry is difficult on their salaries, but there may be some value in this game to help. Byron Pringle ($3,300) has just 17 targets on the year, but six of those have come on the deep ball.
Earlier this year, Pringle saw a season-high six targets in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, so Mahomes has shown a willingness to trust him in big games.
DFS VALUE: LOS ANGELES RAMS TIGHT END TYLER HIGBEE
The Detroit Lions have been a friendly defense for tight ends this season, allowing them 10.8 yards per target, second-most in the league.
The better tight ends Detroit has faced have all had success against this team, most notably Mark Andrews (five catches for 109 yards), George Kittle (four for 78), and Robert Tonyan (three for 52 and a touchdown).
Tyler Higbee ($4,500) has a modest 12.6% target share in the Los Angeles Rams offense, but that rate could see a boost in this matchup.
It’s also worth noting Higbee’s role is mostly in the short passing game 一 84% of his targets come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Lions' defense has allowed an 80% completion rate on throws to tight ends within 10 yards.
DFS VALUE: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS RECEIVER BRYAN EDWARDS
Henry Ruggs ($5,500) is the big-play threat in the Las Vegas Raiders offense, but Bryan Edwards ($4,100) isn’t far behind. Both players have produced at least 20 yards on over 20 percent of their targets.
The difference between Ruggs's and Edwards’s salary is surprising considering their similar production, but Edwards has been kept out of the end zone so far, limiting his fantasy value.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense ranks 20th in the league with an explosive pass rate allowed of eight percent, so this could be an opportunity to gamble on Edwards. Given his big-play potential and the Raiders’ aggressive downfield passing attack, he’s bound to find the end zone on a long touchdown soon.