49ers vs. Falcons Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 7

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the 49ers and Falcons on Sunday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Brock Purdy: We are entering the week optimistic that Purdy will return this week, but we will follow his status throughout the week.

Purdy was participating in individual drills and is now in the “day-to-day” portion of his recovery.

A turf toe injury has limited Purdy to only two appearances this season.

He was the QB16 (16.8 points) and QB16 (17.7 points) in those games against the Seahawks and Jaguars.

That higher-end QB2 area is where Purdy will be if he is back for Sunday night.

Both of those defenses have been toward the front of the league, which is where Atlanta is.

The Falcons have turned things around defensively from a year ago and trumped preseason expectations.

They are seventh in the league in pressure rate (41.5%) and lead the NFL in blitz rate (41.8%).

On the small sample we have with Purdy this season, he has been impacted by pressure.

Without pressure, Purdy has completed 34 of 45 passes (75.6%) for 9.6 yards per pass attempt and a 117.9 rating.

When pressured, he has completed 14 of 28 passes (50%) for 5.5 Y/A with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions for a 39.1 rating.

Purdy has been blitzed on a league-low 15.2% of his dropbacks.

Even when they have not pressured the opposing quarterback, the Falcons have allowed a league-low 60.7% completion percentage and 5.8 yards per pass attempt (2nd).

In bulk, the Falcons have allowed 10.3 passing points per game (5th).

They have had a favorable draw with games against Bryce Young, Marcus Mariota, and J.J. McCarthy, but they also have held Baker Mayfield to 5.2 yards per pass attempt and Josh Allen to 6.9 yards per pass attempt.

Michael Penix: Penix is coming off weeks with 12.0 yards per pass attempt and 7.8 yards per pass attempt, his two highest rates of the season.

Even with a spike in efficiency recently, Penix has logged only one QB1 scoring week this season, with that week being attached to a rushing touchdown.

Penix is the QB29 in fantasy points per game (13.3) and is QB25 in expected points per game (15.4).

What has limited Penix and kept him as a QB2 for fantasy purposes is that Atlanta is so good on the ground.

The Falcons have a 54.2% dropback rate, 29th in the league.

They have thrown the ball 4% below expectations and 7% below expectations on first downs.

Atlanta has 6 rushing touchdowns this season compared to only 4 passing touchdowns.

Penix is still a fantasy QB2 here, but this matchup is lighter with added upside given the key injuries the 49ers have had, losing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for the season.

Over the past four weeks, the 49ers have generated next to zero pass rush, ranking 29th in the league (27.3%) with a league-low 2.2% sack rate over that period.

From a clean pocket, Penix is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt (10th) compared to 5.2 Y/A when pressured (22nd).

The 49ers also could help with the lack of passing scores for Penix.

San Francisco is allowing a 5.2% touchdown rate (21st).

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey: Last week was another game in line with how McCaffrey has operated this season.

He rushed 17 times for 54 yards (3.2 YPC), getting into the end zone on the ground for the first time this season.

Although the rushing efficiency was limited again, McCaffrey made up for that with 7 receptions for 57 yards in the passing game.

McCaffrey has cleared 100 yards from scrimmage in every game this season.

He has been the RB8 or higher in every game this season.

McCaffrey is only averaging 3.1 yards per rush (33rd) with a 29.6% success rate (33rd) on the ground, but his receiving role is the best at his position.

McCaffrey has a position high 25.9% target share.

He has been targeted on 27.9% of his routes, which is ninth among all players in the league.

His 60 targets are third in the league, while only Puka Nacua (54) has more receptions than CMC (46).

We are still waiting to see what happens to McCaffrey when this passing game is complete, but he still has front-end usage to warrant being an RB1.

We are expecting George Kittle back this week, which is another target earner to add to the offense.

Kittle's run blocking could be a plus for McCaffrey's lack rushing efficiency, so there could be some give and take.

Last season, 49ers running backs averaged 5.2 YPC with 1.90 yards before contact with Kittle on the field.

Without him, they averaged 4.0 YPC with 1.39 yards before contact per rush.

Still, McCaffrey is averaging 27.5 expected PPR points per game.

The next closest back is Jonathan Taylor (20.8).

There is room for McCaffrey to shed usage and remain a front-end fantasy asset, but we won’t know until this unit is complete, which may not happen since Jauan Jennings is banged up and Ricky Pearsall is still expected to miss Sunday night.

Bijan Robinson: Robinson has been an absolute tear.

He is coming off 238 total yards and a touchdown on Monday night against Buffalo.

Robinson rushed 19 times for 170 yards, anchored by an 81-yard touchdown run, the longest of his career.

He also added 6 receptions for 68 yards.

Only McCaffrey has more receiving yards (444) than Robinson’s 338 among running backs.

The next closest back is De’Von Achane at 195 yards.

Robinson has also gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in every game this season, with 238, 181, and 168 total yards over his past three games.

Going back to last season, Robinson has gone over 100 total yards in 15 of his past 17 games, with one game at 98 yards as a miss.

Robinson is an efficient runner, so you are getting an explosive version of what McCaffrey is giving gamers as a headline RB1.

The 49ers just lost their best linebacker in Fred Warner and have struggled against combo backs this season.

They are allowing 90.7 rushing yards per game to running backs (21st) while also ranking 20th in receiving points per game (9.6) to backfields.

Tyler Allgeier: The Falcons are playing strong enough defense that they have operated as a run-first offense, allowing Allgeier to accrue extra opportunities.

Allgeier has double-digit touches in four of five games this season.

Allgeier has outtouched Robinson 7 to 4 inside of the 10-yard line and 4 to 3 inside of the five-yard line.

There is still fragility here, especially as a road underdog.

Allgeier only has 3 receptions, so he needs those touchdowns to prop him up for fantasy.

In his weeks without a touchdown, Allgeier has been the RB58 and RB68 in weekly scoring.

Allgeier has only played 18.3% of the offensive snaps while trailing compared to a 35.4% rate playing ahead.

Wide Receiver

Drake London: London was on demon-mode again Monday night, collecting 10 of 16 targets for 158 yards and a touchdown.

He nearly had a second score but just stepped out of bounds at the one-yard as time expired in the first half.

We have seen London go bonkers at any time that Darnell Mooney has been unavailable.

Mooney has missed three games the past two years.

In those games, London has 18, 15, and 16 targets.

Going back to last season, London has run 160 routes with Mooney off the field.

On those plays, he has 41.7% of the team’s targets, 55.7% of the air yards, and has been targeted on 40.6% of his routes (2.92 yards per route).

On his plays with Mooney on the field, London still has 26.8% of the team's targets, 35.2% of the air yards, with a target on 26.4% of his routes (2.22 yards per route), but we are talking about the difference from super Puka Nacua-level output to a solid fringe WR1 depending on Mooney’s availability.

We will follow Mooney’s status throughout the week, but even if Mooney does play, there is some matchup appeal for London.

London moves into the slot for 34% of his snaps.

From the slot, the 49ers have allowed 9.5 yards per target (28th) and an 8.3% touchdown rate (28th) to receivers.

47.1% of the receptions that San Francisco has allowed to wide receivers have come from the slot, the third-highest rate in the league.

Kendrick Bourne: Bourne stayed hot on Sunday, pulling down 5 of 9 targets for 142 yards in Tampa Bay.

After posting one 100-yard game for his career entering the season, Bourne has set and matched his career high in receiving yards in back-to-back weeks.

Bourne has 22.9% and 24.3% of the team’s targets the past two weeks.

Bourne has not played much with Purdy this season, but the 49ers are expected to still be missing Pearsall here, while Jennings was open about playing through injury at the moment.

They are expecting to get Kittle back as a potential target addition.

While those moving parts could impact Bourne’s target share dropping at any point, he is still a solid bet to stay involved for at least another week while Jennings and Kittle ramp up.

There is some volatility, but Bourne is still someone gamers can look at as a WR3-plus option.

Atlanta has been good against outside receivers, however, where Bourne is playing 75% of his snaps.

The Falcons are allowing 8.0 yards per target (12th) and a 57.6% completion rate (4th) to outside receivers, and they just got A.J. Terrell back out of their bye.

Jauan Jennings: Jennings caught 1 of 3 targets for 7 yards on Sunday.

He talked after the game about playing through not only ankle and shoulder injuries so far, but also that he has five fractured ribs.

Whether or not that is completely honest, Jennings has appeared in only four games this season, topping 24 yards just once.

He has been targeted on only 16.5% of his routes after a 26.5% rate last season.

Something is clearly off, and gamers should not trust him as more than a deeper-league WR5/FLEX until we see him fully healthy and drawing targets.

With Bourne excelling and Kittle potentially returning, that is no lock to occur.

Darnell Mooney: Mooney left Week 4 with a hamstring injury.

Mooney was listed as limited on Wednesday, but that was an estimated participation since the Falcons did not hold a full practice.

If he does return, Mooney is a volatile WR4/FLEX best left for single-game DFS.

Mooney has had games of 2-20-0 (4 targets) and 4-44-0 (11 targets) in his full games.

On his small sample this season, Mooney has been targeted on 53.8% of his routes against man coverage compared to a 14.8% rate against zone coverage.

The 49ers are 26th in the rate of man coverage (14.8%).

Tight End

George Kittle: Kittle is tracking to return this week, but we will follow his status and circle back if anything changes.

We have not seen Kittle since Week 1 due to a hamstring injury.

Even if we proceed with caution that Kittle will not be a full go and the 49ers do not give him his typical workload, his return is enough to put him in play as a TE1 at a low-bar fantasy position.

Kittle was as good as ever in 2024, catching 78 passes for 1,106 yards and 8 touchdowns over 15 games.

He led all tight ends with 2.65 yards per route run.

Since entering the league in 2017, Kittle has led all tight ends in that category (2.37 yards per route).

In just over one quarter of football this season, Kittle had 4 catches for 25 yards and a touchdown.

Atlanta has been strong against tight ends, allowing 5.2 yards per target (2nd) and a league-low 52.9% catch rate to the position, but also a 5.9% touchdown rate.

They have also not faced a strong group of tight ends so far.

Dodging Dalton Kincaid on Monday, the best tight ends they have faced are T.J. Hockenson and Zach Ertz.

Kyle Pitts: Pitts caught 3 of 4 targets for 18 yards on Monday night.

Through five games, Pitts has been TE7, TE18, TE20, TE3, and TE33 in weekly scoring, placing an emphasis that he needs to get into the end zone as a fantasy option.

The positive news is that he is playing more this season.

Pitts has been on the field for 91.1% of the dropbacks, second among all tight ends.

His 17.4% target share is TE11, so there is some usage to latch onto.

We also have the 49ers without Warner, who has been a primary reason why the 49ers have been so consistently good against tight ends for multiple seasons.

After Warner left the game on Sunday, Tampa Bay tight ends caught 5 of 6 targets for 51 yards.

More Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: