The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Cardinals and Jaguars.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 24.0 | 13 | Points/Gm | 22.4 | 19 |
| 22.6 | 12 | Points All./Gm | 25.6 | 25 |
| 65.9 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 65.0 | 2 |
| 60.1 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 20 |
| 5 | 27 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 23 |
| 5.4 | 19 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 16 |
| 44.76% | 13 | Rush% | 37.08% | 30 |
| 55.24% | 20 | Pass% | 62.92% | 3 |
| 36.44% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 41.99% | 13 |
| 63.56% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 58.01% | 20 |
- The Jaguars have a 46.1% success rate on rushing plays (5th) compared to a 42% success rate on passing plays (20th).
- Jacksonville is allowing 2.71 points per drive on the road (29th) compared to 1.65 points per drive at home (9th).
- Arizona is allowing 2.67 points per drive over their past five games (28th) after 1.81 prior (5th).
- The Cardinals have forced a punt on a league-low 25.7% of opponent possessions.
- Since Jacoby Brissett took over, the Cardinals have converted a league-high 49.3% of their third downs.
- Opponents have converted 43.2% of their third downs against Jacksonville, 28th in the league.
- 77.8% (21 of 27) of the touchdowns allowed by Jacksonville have been passing, the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett: Brissett stacked a ton of production on Sunday.
The game against San Francisco went off the rails immediately after San Francisco returned the opening kickoff to the 1-yard line and scored the next play.
The 49ers got the ball back after an opening Arizona punt and then scored again in five plays to go up 13-0 five minutes into the game.
By the time the dust settled, Brissett had dropped back 57 times, matching an NFL record with 47 completions for 452 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
Brissett has now been a QB1 scorer in all five of his starts.
What has happened here is not dissimilar to what happened with Joe Flacco in Cincinnati.
Arizona's defense has deteriorated in recent weeks due to injuries and the state of the season, forcing the team to rely heavily on the air.
It does not hurt that they cannot run the ball right now and are deep into their backfield.
Brissett has dropped back 47, 46, 37, 53, and 57 times now in his starts.
Four of those were losses.
This is an environment to keep pushing out for scoring potential, and I would ride Brissett as a QB1.
Jacksonville is a complete pass-funnel, and Arizona is already bad at the running game.
The Jaguars face 36.7 pass attempts per game (fourth-most) and the second-highest pass rate in the league.
I do believe there is some fragility here, however, for three reasons.
The first is that Brissett has started to suck out fantasy points.
Rather than being involved in back-and-forth games, the Arizona offense has been awful to open the past two games, and Brissett has stacked a bunch of late-game production.
There is a difference between garbage time and playing in a shootout, with the former being more fragile for fantasy output because you have played poorly to create the game state.
Last week’s Chargers team is an example of how you do not always get out of those holes.
In Week 10, Brissett had 3.5 fantasy points in the first half, and Arizona was down 38-7 at the break.
He ended with 19.4 points in a 44-22 loss.
Last week, Brissett had 4.9 points in the first half as Arizona trailed 25-10 at the half.
He ended with 21.9 points.
He had 0 touchdown passes in the first half of both games as Arizona scored a touchdown on 2 of 13 first-half drives.
The second is the state of the offensive line in this matchup.
Arizona was without Jonah Williams last week, and then his backup, Kelvin Beachum, left the game.
Isaiah Adams had not played in over a month and rotated in at guard with Will Hernandez.
The 49ers have not breathed on a quarterback in two months, so last week it was not an issue.
Brissett had 57 dropbacks. He was not sacked and was only pressured on 7.1% of those.
In the previous month, he was pressured on 57.1%, 33.3%, 33.3%, and 57.1% of his dropbacks, taking 18 sacks.
Jacksonville can generate a pass rush against an inferior opponent.
They have a 40.3% pressure rate in the past three games (10th) against the Chargers, Texans, and Raiders.
The last part is the Arizona run defense and how Jacksonville has operated on offense in recent weeks.
Out of their bye, Jacksonville has a 46.8% dropback rate (30th) and leads the league in time of possession.
Opponents have run only 58.0 plays per game against them over that span, with 60, 55, and 45 offensive snaps.
Arizona is running 69.8 plays per game under Brissett, second in the NFL over that period.
All of those elements can make this thing combustible. Still, if Arizona can start faster and push the game in a more competitive environment, there is plenty of shootout potential here.
Until last week, Jacksonville had been a team we targeted for quarterback production.
Before Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense flatlined, the Jaguars had allowed five straight QB1 scoring weeks, which included Geno Smith (26.3 points) and Davis Mills (27.7 points).
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has four QB1 scoring weeks this season, with three of those coming attached to rushing touchdowns.
He has thrown multiple passing touchdowns twice this season.
The Jaguars have pivoted to the run game out of their Week 8 bye.
Jacksonville has a 46.8% dropback rate (30th) over the past three weeks, throwing the ball 9%, 1%, and 7% below expectations in those games.
The way this game bogs down is when Jacksonville takes control and leans on the running game, sapping the atmosphere of its juice.
The way this game gets going is if Jacksonville is pushed into throwing more.
Arizona has been dealing with several injuries on defense the past few weeks, and the season has been dwindling on them, which surely has not helped morale.
The Cardinals were without starting linebackers Mack Wilson, Baron Browning, and Will Johnson last week.
Johnson has been a significant loss.
With Johnson off the field, Arizona has allowed a 67.6% completion rate (25th), 7.6 yards per pass attempt (25th), and a 4.4% touchdown rate (14th).
With him on the field, they have allowed a 62.8% completion percentage (8th), 6.4 Y/A (6th), and a 3.4% touchdown rate (7th).
We will follow the status of the defensive injuries.
Should all of those players and Johnson be inactive another week, then Lawrence gets another boost.
I would still only trust Lawrence as a matchup-based QB2 and streamer, since Jacksonville has wanted to hide him, and he has only popped for fantasy via rushing lines.
That said, there's room for this game to have a back-and-forth upside.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bills @ Texans | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Panthers @ 49ers | Monday Night Football |