Week 15 DFS Picks: Tournament Plays

Every week, I will go through the players I am targeting to play in DFS for all games, tournaments, and game stacks.

The idea is that this will paint a clearer picture of framing lineups.

It is not that tournament players cannot be used in cash games.

If a player here works out for your team structure in cash games surrounding your primary core, use them.

These are just the players that come with some element of inherent risk, but they also are the primary players I still want to be ahead of the field on, compared to the percentage of rosters they are projected to make this weekend.

I will analyze the player selections and game writeups, but please refer to the Week 15 Worksheet for a detailed breakdown of the players and games.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson ($8,200/$6,400)

It wasn’t perfect, but gamers will gladly take Jackson’s output on Sunday over his recent production.

Jackson closed the week as the QB8 (21.1 points).

The 10.3 rushing points were the most he has had in a game since Week 1.

It is subjective, but Jackson looked the best he has since returning in Week 9 physically.

The positive news is that, aside from Jackson looking better physically, he also threw the ball better on Sunday.

His completion rate was not high, but his 8.6% inaccurate throw rate was significantly lower than the 25%, 21.7%, and 28% rates he had over the previous three games.

Jackson played poorly in this matchup two weeks ago, but it's still a good matchup overall.

Jackson was inaccurate, but there were a handful of 50-50 plays of which the Ravens ended up on the wrong side.

Jackson lost a fumble on the new tuck rule.

His interception came on a tipped pass at the line of scrimmage when Mark Andrews was uncovered for a would-be touchdown.

Isaiah Likely lost a fumble crossing the goal line that resulted in a touchback.

Zay Flowers had a touchdown erased by an offensive pass interference that we have seen go either way.

Horseshoes and hand grenades do not give gamers points for that night, but Baltimore still has one of the highest team totals of the week, and the Cincinnati defense is still one we want to target.

The Bengals are still 30th in passing points allowed per game (17.3), 31st in yards per pass attempt (8.0), and 29th in touchdown rate (6.1%).

They have also allowed 20.7 rushing yards per game (24th) to quarterbacks.

Jared Goff ($7,900/$6,100)

Goff is coming off an efficient outing against the Cowboys, connecting on 25 of 34 attempts (73.5%) for 309 yards (9.1 Y/A) with a touchdown.

The Rams have been a sturdy pass defense, allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt (7th) and a 3.9% touchdown rate (8th).

The Rams are sixth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.359) while Goff is third in passing points per attempt (0.552) behind Stafford (0.616) and Drake Maye (0.561).

For as good as the Rams have been, they have allowed QB1 scoring weeks to Bryce Young (22.5 points) and Jacoby Brissett (19 points) the past two weeks, and we have seen an under-center Mac Jones have two QB1 weeks against them.

With Detroit as road underdogs, I expect them to be aggressive and need to push the scoreboard.

Dan Campbell gives Goff some elevation in these spots because he will not play for a friendly loss.

Los Angeles has been a bit more vulnerable to play-action passes, allowing a 75.6% completion rate (31st) and 7.6 yards per pass attempt (13th), compared to a 60.9% completion rate (8th) and 6.2 Y/A allowed (9th) against static dropbacks.

Jaxson Dart ($7,600/$5,600)

Dart is in a great spot, but I am treating him as a more volatile play given how this team coached before the bye with Dart returning from a concussion.

When we last saw Dart return before the bye in New England, we got a glimpse of his floor.

Dart was the QB19 (13.6 points), completing 17 of 24 (70.8%) passes for 139 yards (5.8 Y/A) with a touchdown through the air.

Returning from his concussion, Dart rushed a season-low 4 times for 20 yards.

All of Dart’s runs were scrambles, too.

For the first game, he did not have a single designed run.

Before that game, Dart was at 15% of the designed runs.

That is a potentially massive development because 43.5% of Dart’s fantasy output stems from rushing.

The only quarterback with a higher rate is Justin Fields at 43.7%.

The Giants were not only cautious with Dart as a runner but also reluctant to let him drop back in Week 13, even though they trailed throughout.

The Giants threw the ball 15% below expectations in Week 13 and 13% below expectations on first downs.

Even if we lower Dart’s projection based on all of this, this is a favorable matchup for him as a passer, and the Giants have a solid team total here as a short home favorite.

Washington is allowing the most passing points per attempt in the league (0.580), allowing a 67.7% completion rate (27th), a league-high 8.6 yards per pass attempt, and a 6.6% touchdown rate (31st).

Over their past four games, Washington is 29th in pressure rate (29.6%).

Without pressure, they are allowing a league-high 9.6 yards per pass attempt.

Marcus Mariota ($6,700/$5,000)

Mariota has been rough in the three games he has entered off the bench, but when given preparation, he has been reliable.

Over his six starts, Mariota has been on average the QB11, averaging 17.5 points per game.

The Giants are 29th in passing points allowed (16.6 per game), allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt (18th) and a 5.1% touchdown rate (20th).

They also allow 4.3 rushing points per game to quarterbacks (28th).

Tyler Shough ($7,000/$4,900)

Shough now has three QB1 scoring weeks over the past four games.

He is indoors, facing an opponent who struggles to pressure the quarterback, something we have noted in his early-career sample.

One of those QB1 scoring weeks came in the Week 10 matchup between these teams on the road.

In that game, Shough was the QB11 (19 points).

The Panthers are last in the NFL in pressure rate (27.7%).

When Shough has been pressured, he has completed 46.5% of his passes for 5.4 yards per attempt with a 4.7% interception rate.

Without pressure, he has completed 71.9% of his passes for 7.1 Y/A with a 2.2% interception rate.

When Carolina failed to pressure Shough in Week 10, he was 14 of 19 (73.7%) for 183 yards (9.6 Y/A) with a touchdown.

Running Back