Every week, I will go through the players I am targeting to play in DFS for all games, tournaments, and game stacks.
The idea is that this will paint a clearer picture of framing lineups.
| Week 4 DFS Picks |
|---|
| Core Plays |
| Tournament Picks |
| Team & Game Stacks |
It is not that tournament players cannot be used in cash games.
If a player here works out for your team structure in cash games surrounding your primary core, use them.
These are just the players that come with some element of inherent risk, but they also are the primary players I still want to be ahead of the field on, compared to the percentage of rosters they are projected to make this weekend.
I will analyze the player selections and game writeups, but please refer to the Week 4 Worksheet for a detailed breakdown of the players and games.
Quarterback
Geno Smith ($7,200/$5,400)
It was not a perfect game, but Smith ended last week as the QB4 (26.1 points).
Smith has now averaged over 10.0 yards per pass attempt in two of the first three games.
The only other quarterback so far with multiple games averaging 10.0 yards per attempt is Lamar Jackson.
This matchup lines up for Smith to attack downfield.
The Bears have allowed a league-high 70.4% completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, with a league-high 17.3 yards per pass attempt on those throws.
Last week, Dallas passers were 8 of 12 (66.7%) on those attempts.
Even though the Bears gave up production on those throws last week, they were more bend but don’t break.
That said, the Cowboys also shot themselves in the foot repeatedly.
They threw 2 red zone interceptions (both in the end zone) and lost a fumble on the Chicago side of the field.
Dallas only punted on two of its opening six drives and got into Chicago territory on seven of its nine true possessions.
There were ample scoring opportunities.
The Bears are still 30th in passing points allowed per attempt.
Jared Goff ($7,600/$6,400)
The Cleveland defense is getting so much buzz (which is warranted) that people will not be looking here.
The Lions still have a 26.5-point team total, and I do not believe that they will run the football as effectively as they did on Monday night against Cleveland.
Cleveland did allow 41 points in Baltimore two weeks ago with 4 passing touchdowns.
We are still working with small samples, but the other front-end defense that Detroit faced this season (Green Bay) has been playing at a similar level as Cleveland.
The difference is that the Browns play more aggressively than Green Bay.
The Packers took away Goff’s first read and forced him to hold the ball and check down over and over.
Goff’s time to throw in Week 1 was 2.95 seconds.
He only had two games with a longer time to throw since joining the Lions.
Per Fantasy Points Data, Goff threw to his first read 53.8% of the time in Week 1 compared to a 67.9% rate in Week 2 and a 75% rate in Week 3.
Cleveland is sixth in the league in terms of pressure rate (43.5%), but they also plan man coverage at the league’s highest rate (49.1%) and blitz 29.3% of the time (12th highest).
They force quick processing, which could be a trap here.
Goff has been good under pressure, an area in which he made strides a year ago.
So far this season, Goff has completed 63% of his passes under pressure (third) for 8.6 yards per pass attempt (fifth).
Against man coverage, Goff has a 141.3 rating, completing 20 of 24 passes for 202 yards (8.4 Y/A) and 3 touchdowns.
Jaxson Dart ($6,000/$4,500)
Dart will officially make his first start of his career this Sunday.
The matchup is not inviting, but Dart is near minimum pricing and can provide value at this cost even if he has a lackluster stat sheet.
It was only the preseason, but Dart completed 32 of 47 passes for 372 yards (7.9 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
He also ran 6 times for 52 yards and another score.
Big picture, I am bullish on Dart based on what we saw from Drake Maye last season.
Dart can run, and he has a true WR1 threat to elevate him, something that Maye lacked (and still does).
When Maye had a chance to start last year against a tough Houston defense, he still managed 19.5 fantasy points in a 41-21 loss.
Dart had a career rushing production score in the 72nd percentile in my college prospect model.
He scrambled on 9.5% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in this draft class.
When pressured, Dart scrambled on 19.2% of his dropbacks (also second).
He also led this draft class in yards per pass attempt under pressure (10.2 Y/A) and with a clean pocket (10.9 Y/A).
Running Back
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