Best Divisional Round Running Backs: Fantasy Outlook for Every RB

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round. Find a breakdown of every Divisional Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Full Game Divisional Round Fantasy Football Previews

MatchupTime
Texans @ Chiefs -- FREESaturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET
Commanders @ LionsSaturday -- 8 p.m. ET
Rams @ EaglesSunday -- 3 p.m. ET
Ravens @ BillsSunday -- 6:30 p.m. ET

Derrick Henry Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook

We spent a lot of time on the quarterbacks. 

Still, Henry is the actual difference maker in this matchup, which is why this iteration of the Baltimore offense has more stability than previous playoff versions, which were good in the regular season but then cratered in the postseason.

Henry rushed 26 times for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on Saturday night.

He has rushed for at least 138 yards in four straight games and has 10 100-yard performances on the ground this season.

Oh, and he has 20 total touchdowns.

One of those games was back in Week 4 when these teams hooked up.

In that game, Henry rushed for a season-high 199 yards on 24 attempts, punctuated by an 87-yard touchdown run in the first quarter that set this game in motion.

Baltimore went heavy in that game.

Patrick Ricard played 61% of the snaps, his second-highest rate in a game this season.

In addition, Baltimore played 22 personnel on 25.9% of their snaps, their second-highest rate in a game this season.

They averaged 8.8 yards per play with multiple players in the backfield in that game (their most in a season).

Buffalo has a lighter defensive line and inherently wants to play an extra defensive back as their base defense under McDermott.

No team has played more snaps this season with 5 or more defensive backs on the field than the Bills (58.1 per game).

In that Week 4 game, they had their fewest snaps with 5 or more defensive backs on the field because the Ravens forced them to match heavy personnel.

When they did use 5 or more defensive backs and Baltimore ran the ball, the Ravens averaged 9.2 yards per play.

If that occurs again, the difference in this matchup is that Buffalo will have Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard available on Sunday. 

Neither played in the first matchup.

With Milano and Bernard on the field together, Buffalo has faced 109 backfield runs.

They have allowed 4.0 YPC and 0.85 yards before contact on those runs.

They have faced 343 running back runs with either one of those players off the field.

They have allowed 4.7 YPC and 1.73 yards before contact on those runs.

While Milano and Bernard can impact this rematch and provide a better way to combat Baltimore's heavy personnel, controlling the game script is the only truly successful way to limit Henry.

Baltimore has run the football on 63.6% of Henry's snaps this season.

There is no running back with as many snaps as Henry, who has a higher rate.

They have run the ball on 70.7% of Ricard's snaps.

No fullback with as many snaps as Ricard has a higher rate.

But Henry has only played 44% of the offensive snaps with Baltimore trailing in the second half of games and only 33.6% when trailing in the fourth quarter.

You will need to be ahead on the scoreboard as the game wears on because Henry has rushed for 6.4 YPC in the second half of games compared to 5.1 YPC in the first half.

His explosive run rate goes from 11.6% in the first half to 15.6% in the second half.

James Cook Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook

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