What We Can Learn: Passing & Rushing Touchdown Splits

As we are pushing into July and further downhill towards the 2024 fantasy season, we are going to extend our top-down approach that started with a look at the state of leaguewide production and usage at each skill position for fantasy by looking at team performance and output.

The goal is that come late August, we have covered all corners of the fantasy Earth from a team, player, position, and game theory stance to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for this upcoming season.

We opened up this series with a look at how the league and teams performed per drive in terms of scoring, efficiency, and what type of scoring plays offenses leaned on.

We then followed that up with a dive into how good and bad teams were at converting yardage into touchdowns.

We are now taking a look at what types of touchdowns the NFL is scoring as a whole and then will dissect team performances.

League Offensive Touchdown Splits Since 2010

Not only has leaguewide scoring dropped in each of the past two NFL seasons, but the rate of the touchdowns being scored through the air has dropped.

61.6% of offensive touchdowns scored last season were through the air, ahead of only the 2022 season in the sample above.

Outside of these past two seasons, you have to go back to 2008 to find a lower rate of the league’s touchdowns coming through the air.

Even outside of the past two seasons, passing touchdowns made up a smaller share of the offensive touchdowns during the offensive spike seasons of 2020 and 2021, as well.

This is an ongoing trend. The four lowest shares of passing touchdowns in the table above are from the past four seasons.

I have mentioned this a few times in the past few weeks, but I believe this is an extension stemming from the rise in mobile quarterbacks and their increasing usage of running the ball near the end zone.

In each of the past four seasons, quarterbacks have accounted for at least 20% of the league’s rushing touchdowns after failing to have another such season in the 2000s.

Quarterbacks have had a higher share of the league’s rushing attempts inside of the five-yard line compared to their share of rushing attempts as a whole in each of those past five seasons.

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Passing Touchdown Share Regression

Since 2010, 76.5% of the teams that were above the league average in passing touchdown reliance that season came back the following season and had a decrease in passing touchdown share.

Those teams had on average a decline of 11.1% in the share of passing touchdowns with an average loss of 4.8 passing touchdowns the following season.

As a cause and effect, 72.7% of those teams came back the following year and scored more rushing touchdowns, with an average spike of 4.9 rushing scores per team.

That largely held again looking at last season.

The top eight teams in rate of touchdowns coming through the air in 2022 all had a decrease in passing touchdown rate in 2023.

Only two of those teams had more passing touchdowns (the Buccaneers and Texans) last season than the season before.

You have to get to the ninth place team in passing touchdown rate in 2022 to find a spike in that rate last season, and that was the Chiefs, who threw 13 fewer passing touchdowns than the season prior.

Of the 16 teams in the top half of the league in passing touchdown rate in 2022, just six of them threw more passing touchdowns last season.

Nine of the 16 teams in the back half of the league in 2022 threw more touchdowns last season, with the Rams (+10) having the largest increase in overall passing scores.

The Ravens and Cowboys (+8 each) were also standouts that spiked last season after lagging below the fold in passing touchdown rate in 2022.

With the idea of where regression in touchdown dependency shows up the following season, let’s look at the 2023 team splits and carve out some notes with an eye on the 2024 season.

2023 Team Offensive Touchdown Splits:

The Vikings led the way last season with 81.1% (30-of-37) of their touchdowns coming through the air.

In Kevin O’Connell’s first season with Minnesota, that rate was 62.5% (30-of-48).

Since 2010, there have been 32 other teams that have had 80% or more of their touchdowns come via passing.

30 of those 32 teams had a drop in touchdown dependence through the air in the following season.

20 of those 32 teams threw fewer touchdowns in the following season with an average loss of 9.5 passing touchdowns per team.

Nine of those teams threw more passing scores the next season, but only one of them had 30 or more passing touchdowns in the previous season.

The bulk of the teams that spiked were low-total teams with a heavy lean on passing touchdowns to begin with.

It is not hard to question Minnesota having a more balanced dispersal of touchdowns transitioning to some combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy paired with the unknown return of T.J. Hockenson, but this a potentially underpriced component for Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler.

Out of those 32 teams, 27 of them had an increase in rushing touchdowns in the following season with an average increase of 5.9 rushing touchdowns per team.

After the Vikings, the Broncos (77.8%), Buccaneers (77.8%), Packers (76.2%), and Chiefs (75.7%) all had at least three-fourths of their touchdowns come via passing.

Another two teams, the Texans (72.9%) and Cowboys (72.0%), were at 70% or higher.

This also synchs up nicely with the leaderboard of quarterbacks who threw far more touchdowns than expected last year.

Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, and Baker Mayfield were four of the top five passers in passing touchdowns over expectations last season.

Those are players I am pricing regression into already this upcoming season.

The only member of the top five not to make this list on the team is Brock Purdy.

Since 2010, 111 of 131 teams (84.7%) of the teams to have over 70% of their touchdowns come via passing had a decrease in that dependency the following season.

63.4% of those teams threw fewer overall touchdowns in the following season.

65 of those teams had thrown 30 or more passing touchdowns in that same season in which they relied heavily on passing to reach the end zone.

Of those 65 teams, 55 of them threw fewer passing touchdowns in the following season while just 44.6% of them hit the 30-touchdown mark through the air again.

The teams that fall under that umbrella this season are the Cowboys, Vikings, and Packers.

Those are the teams I would look at as having the most regression in terms of overall passing touchdowns impacted by a decreased rate of passing touchdown dependency.

That group of team should not only be impacted by a drop in their rate of reliance on passing touchdowns but also coincide with a bump in rushing touchdowns.

71.8% of those 131 teams saw a rise in rushing touchdowns the following season with an average rise of 5.4 rushing scores per team.

Minnesota, Houston, and Green Bay all made moves this season in acquiring veteran running backs, leaving Jones, Joe Mixon, and Josh Jacobs as potential beneficiaries in those spots.

Ezekiel Elliott would be my lean to receive short yardage touches in a potentially nebulous Dallas backfield. The one concern here is that Dallas may not be done adding to this backfield.

This is also another overlooked factor that could lead to Rachaad White once again being underpriced for a second straight season.

Even if White shares more backfield work under Liam Coen than a year ago, it is harder to see either Chase Edmonds or Bucky Irving challenging his presence at the goal line given that both of those are sub-200-pound backs.

This is also another feather in the cap for a surging Isiah Pacheco.

Denver is the hardest to diagnose right now with rumors ramping up surrounding the fragility of Javonte Williams making the final roster, but Williams or rookie Audric Estime would be top bets on landing the short yardage rushing role for Denver.

At worst amidst these rumors and potential regression here, Estime is worth a dart throw at the tail end of drafts since he surely be a significant riser should anything happen with Williams.

Positive Regression Candidates

At the other end of the spectrum, we had three teams score more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns last season the Colts, Titans, and Steelers.

There have been 27 other teams in our sample to have more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns.

24 of those 27 teams had an increase in passing touchdown rate in the following season.

While there is a signal here for those teams throwing more touchdowns this season, the overall impact is tougher to gauge.

The majority of teams with more rushing scores than passing scores inherently just did not throw many touchdowns to begin with.

Of those 27 teams, just four of them had 20 or more passing touchdowns.

13 of them had 14 or fewer touchdowns through the air.

There is a very low bar to clear here.

19 of those 27 teams did throw more touchdowns in the next season, but just four of those teams ended up throwing 25 or more touchdowns in the next season.

We are likely looking at a mild bump into flirting with passing touchdown totals in the lower 20s, something 15 of those 19 teams did hit.

The Holy Grail was the 2019 Ravens in the year Lamar Jackson won MVP. That season, the Ravens threw 37 touchdowns after just 18 passing scores in the previous season.

While the Colts are objectively a good bet to raise their passing touchdown totals, there likely will be some limitations.

That is the impact that a mobile passer has on the rate of rushing scores.

Of the top-10 teams last season in rushing touchdown dependency, you see the Ravens, Eagles, Colts, Cardinals, and Bears. All teams with a heavy influence on quarterback runs.

All of those teams were in the top 10 in the league in quarterback rushes from five yards and closer last season.

The Bills also had their highest rate of rushing touchdowns last season (43.1%) since 2018 as they also adopted the ‘tush push” late last season.

In the three seasons with Jalen Hurts as a starter, the Eagles have ranked 1st, 2nd, and 6th in the rate of touchdowns coming on the ground.

We are anticipating that Anthony Richardson’s legs will play a large role near the end zone.

We did not get to see Richardson and Jonathan Taylor play together near the end zone last season, but Richardson did account for three of the seven runs in goal-to-go situations when available.

Inside of the five-yard line, Richardson had 50% of the team rushes when he was on the field.

Wrapping this up with some more arbitrary thresholds to potentially spot some other teams to climb in passing touchdown numbers, 72.9% of all teams to have fewer than 60% of their touchdowns coming through the air have come back with a higher passing touchdown rate the following season.

Those teams averaged +4.9 more passing scores the next season with an average loss of -4.3 rushing touchdowns.