The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Bears and Packers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 24.0 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 24.9 | 10 | Points/Gm | 26.1 | 9 |
| 20.1 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 24.1 | 21 |
| 60.4 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 66.2 | 1 |
| 61.6 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.2 | 6 |
| 5.7 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 10 |
| 4.8 | 5 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 28 |
| 46.81% | 9 | Rush% | 47.36% | 6 |
| 53.19% | 24 | Pass% | 52.64% | 27 |
| 42.41% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 43.19% | 16 |
| 57.59% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 56.81% | 17 |
- The Packers are 4-0 against their division this season, one of two teams (the Chargers) that are undefeated in their division.
- The Bears are 1-3 in the division compared to a league-best 9-1 outside the division.
- The Packers average 2.76 points per drive on the road, 2nd in the league.
- The Packers have allowed 2.60 points per drive on the road (27th) compared to 1.59 per drive at home (7th).
- The Bears have allowed 1.48 points per drive at home, 2nd in the league.
- Green Bay has allowed 27 points off turnovers, 3rd in the league.
- The Bears have scored 97 points off turnovers, 2nd in the league.
- The Packers have scored 23 points off turnovers, 30th in the league.
- Since their Week 5 bye, the Bears lead the NFL in success rate on rushing plays (49.2%).
- The Bears lead the league with 4.2 runs of 10 or more yards per game.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Love started last week on fire in Denver.
In the first half against the Broncos, Love was 17 of 22 (77.3%) for 215 yards (9.8 Y/A) and a touchdown.
Things went south in the second half, completing 7 of 18 passes (38.9%) for 61 yards (3.4 Y/A) with 2 interceptions and 3 sacks.
Love ended the week as the QB22 (13.9 points).
Green Bay also lost Christian Watson during the game.
With Watson off the field, Love was 12 of 23 (52.2%) for 5.4 Y/A with an interception.
Watson was a huge part of the first matchup between these teams, catching 4 passes for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns.
If Watson misses Week 16, Love is a boom-or-bust option I would prefer to use as a mid-range QB2 than lean into in 1QB formats.
When these teams played two weeks ago, Love was the QB11 (19.3 points).
He was 13 of 21 (61.9%) for 145 yards (6.9 Y/A) with 1 touchdown and 1 interception when throwing to non-Watson pass catchers.
The Bears are also a boom-or-bust defense.
They have a league-high 4.8% interception rate, but they have also allowed 7.5 Y/A (26th) and a 6.2% touchdown rate (29th).
How aggressive the Bears get in the rematch could be the story here.
Love is fourth in the NFL in rating against man coverage (117.5), completing 60% of his passes (10th) for 7.8 Y/A (9th) and 16 touchdowns (2nd) to 2 interceptions.
They played man coverage 37% of the time in the first matchup, with Love completing 8 of 10 passes for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns against it.
Watson was a huge part of that output, however, so his absence could push Chicago to get even more aggressive here.
On top of losing Watson, Zach Tom also left last week’s game.
The Packers' offensive line has been bludgeoned this season.
Love has been pressured on 46.9% of his 145 dropbacks this season without Tom on the field this season, which would be the highest rate in the league.
With Tom on the field, that drops to 37.3%, which would still be 21st but an improvement.
We have beaten it into the ground this season, but when Love has been pressured, he has completed 41.4% of his passes (29th) for 5.0 Y/A (27th).
Caleb Williams: Williams played a clean game on Sunday, completing 17 of 28 passes (60.7%) for 242 yards (8.6 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
His second touchdown was a sick 22-yard throw on the run to the back of the end zone to D.J. Moore.
Williams only had a 60.7% completion rate on Sunday, but that was his highest in a game since Week 8.
His 8.6 Y/A was his highest rate in a game since Week 6.
Williams is a boom-or-bust QB2 here.
He was the QB16 (14.9 points) when these teams played two weeks ago.
In that game, he only completed 19 of 35 passes (54.3%) for 186 yards (5.3 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and an interception.
Williams started rough against Green Bay, completing 6 of 14 passes (42.9%) for 32 yards (2.3 Y/A) in the first half.
He picked things up after the break, completing 13 of 21 (61.9%) for 154 yards (7.3 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in the second half in an attempted comeback that fell short and ended on an interception in the end zone.
The Packers play man coverage only 16.3% of the time (28th), and were at 8.3% in the first game between these two teams.
Against zone coverages, Williams has completed a league-low 59.3% of his passes for 7.1 Y/A (21st).
A few things give him some added upside here in the rematch.
Not only did he play better in the second half that week, but he has also played better at home this season.
He still only has a 59% completion rate (31st) at home, but has thrown for 7.3 Y/A (16th) and a 5.9% touchdown rate (9th).
On the road, he averages 6.5 Y/A (22nd) with a 3.7% touchdown rate (25th).
The Packers have been worse on the road, allowing a 68.5% completion rate (27th), 7.2 Y/A (16th), and a 5.5% touchdown rate (24th).
We also have the loss of Micah Parsons.
The Packers have faced 109 dropbacks with Parsons off the field this season, allowing a 68% completion rate (27th) and a 6.2% touchdown rate (28th).
The Packers do have a 37.6% pressure rate on those dropbacks compared to a 38.8% pressure rate with Parsons on the field, but they have a 4% sack rate on those plays without Parsons compared to a 7.3% sack rate with Parsons on the field.
Parsons had 7 pressures in the game two weeks ago.
That is relevant because Williams has been rough when pressured this season.
Under pressure, Williams has completed a league-low 38.1% of his passes for 4.7 Y/A (30th) and a 3% touchdown rate (24th).
There is an added downside in the potential that the Bears will be without Rome Odunze and Luther Burden in this game.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs came into Sunday’s game still bothered by the knee injury that he suffered in Week 11.
That did have an impact, as he played only 54.5% of the snaps and had only 14 touches, his fewest in a complete game this season.
But Jacobs made the most of those opportunities, rushing 12 times for 73 yards and a 40-yard touchdown, his longest run of the season.
He also caught 2 of 2 targets for 19 yards, including a 14-yard touchdown, which was an excellent catch for his second career receiving touchdown.
The knee issue still clouds Jacobs, but he appears to be playing through it.
He has had his snaps managed and has gone over 100 total yards in two of his past eight games, but he still holds upside through touchdown equity.
That keeps him in play as a back-end RB1.
Jacobs has 14 touchdowns, reaching the end zone in 10 of his 12 complete games.
That includes when these teams played in Week 14.
Jacobs rushed 20 times for 86 yards and a touchdown in that game, catching 2 passes for 6 yards.
Tom’s injury also impacts Jacobs.
With Tom on the field, Jacobs averages 4.2 yards per carry with a run of 10 or more yards on 11.4% of his attempts.
He averages 3.9 YPC with a run of 10 or more yards on 9% of his attempts when Tom is off the field.
Bears RBs: D’Andre Swift had a big game on Sunday, turning 19 touches into 96 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Browns.
He handled 63.3% of the backfield touches.
That was only RB19 for the week, but it was his highest rate in a game since Week 10.
Kyle Monangai had 11 touches for 33 yards.
Swift’s usage rates still place him in the upside RB2 bucket, as all of his RB1 scoring weeks have come attached to touchdowns.
When these teams played in Week 14, Swift was the RB24, turning 16 touches into 82 yards.
Monangai is a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX, as he has no receiving role (2 catches over his past six games).
Monangai had 15 touches for 57 yards in the first game between these teams.
Wide Receiver
More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ Seahawks | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Saturday -- 5 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bears | Saturday -- 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Texans | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| 49ers @ Colts | Monday Night Football |