The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Cardinals and Packers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 19.0 | ||
| 26.2 | 8 | Points/Gm | 21.7 | 20 |
| 20.4 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 21.2 | 14 |
| 62.0 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 14 |
| 63.2 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 27 |
| 5.8 | 8 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 26 |
| 4.4 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 13 |
| 49.68% | 2 | Rush% | 39.62% | 25 |
| 50.32% | 31 | Pass% | 60.38% | 8 |
| 32.28% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 37.22% | 5 |
| 67.72% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 62.78% | 28 |
- Green Bay has scored first in every game this season, the final remaining team in the league to score first in every game.
- The Packers are the only remaining team that has not allowed any points in the first quarter.
- Green Bay has led for a league-high 73.8% of their offensive snaps in the second half of games.
- The Packers have scored 0 points off takeaways so far, the only team in the league.
- Green Bay leads the NFL with a 52.3% conversion rate on third downs.
- The Packers have converted a league-high 48.1% (13 of 27) of their third and longs (needing 7 or more yards). The league average is 23.1%.
- Arizona is the only team that has not allowed a touchdown from outside of the red zone.
- The Packers and Cardinals are among four teams without an offensive touchdown from outside of the red zone.
- Arizona averages a league-low 4.1 yards per play on first downs.
- 28.8% of Arizona's runs have gained five or more yards, ahead of only the Browns.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Love was hyper-efficient on Sunday, completing 19 of 26 (73.1%) of his passes for 259 yards (10.0 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
He added 26 yards rushing.
Love has now completed 70.1% of his passes (10th) for 8.6 yards per attempt (3rd) and a 6.1% touchdown rate (7th).
Getting Zach Tom and Aaron Banks back (while facing the Bengals), Love was pressured on only 28.1% of his dropbacks, his lowest rate since Week 1.
When kept clean, Love leads the league in completion rate (85.9%) and yards per pass attempt (10.8 Y/A) while sitting third in touchdown rate (9.1%).
Arizona ranks 25th in pressure rate (31.7%), and they blitz only 19% of the time (29th), which is almost a direct overlap with Cincinnati's approach (29.3% pressure rate and a 13.3% blitz rate).
I expect Love to be efficient here again.
What has slowed down Love for fantasy is that this is a team that will run the football when playing from ahead, and the Packers have led on the highest rate of snaps in the league.
The Packers have a 55.6% dropback rate in neutral game scripts (28th).
They have a 59.9% dropback rate in the first half of games (19th) with a 44.7% rate in the second half of games (31st).
Love is averaging 12.6 dropbacks per game in the second half, 32nd in the league.
Love is in a good spot as a favorite here, but we need some push to unlock his ceiling.
Love has one true spike week, which came in that shootout with the Cowboys.
I don’t believe this is a similar game environment, leaving Love as a fringe QB1 with upside if we do get an eruption game script.
Jacoby Brissett: We are entering the week under the premise that Kyler Murray could miss another week with a Week 8 bye looming after this matchup.
Should Murray trend towards playing, we will adjust.
Getting his first start with Arizona, Brissett completed 27 of 44 passes (61.4%) for 320 yards (7.3 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns, throwing 1 interception.
He added 19 rushing yards to negate the turnover, closing the week as QB7 (20.7 points).
What was really interesting about Brissett’s game was how Arizona was able to run its offense without Murray.
I have long wondered how much of Drew Petzing’s passing game was structured around Murray and if there was more to his scheme.
With Brissett taking over, the Cardinals operated under center for 50% of their dropbacks.
Murray’s under-center rate was 23%.
Playing under center allows for play-action passing.
With Murray taking so many shotgun snaps, he used play action on 21.1% of his dropbacks (26th).
Brissett used play action on 40.9% of his dropback in Week 6, fourth in the league.
On play action passes, Brissett was 12 of 18 (66.7%) for 145 yards (8.1 Y/A).
On non-play action passes, he was 15 of 26 (57.7%) for 175 yards (6.7 Y/A).
Now, this was against an injury-riddled Indianapolis secondary.
We won’t get ahead of ourselves with the fantasy results remaining sticky here.
Still, the way Arizona operated on Sunday is more advantageous, from a big-picture perspective, to the current state of the NFL.
Despite his success last week, Brissett will be a QB2 here.
Green Bay is a significant step up in weight class from a week ago in terms of defensive matchup.
The Packers are 10th in pressure rate (39.8%) and are allowing a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
They are allowing 5.0 Y/A against play-action passes (second).
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content, click below to learn more about our Fantasy Package.
Learn MoreMore Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Bengals | Thursday Night Football |
| Rams @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Lions | Monday Night Football |
| Texans @ Seahawks | Monday Night Football |