49ers vs. Panthers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 12

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the 49ers and Panthers on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Brock Purdy: In his first action since Week 4, Purdy and a near-complete San Francisco rolled Arizona on Sunday.

Purdy was the QB6 (19.3 points), completing 19 of 26 (73.1%) passes for 200 yards (7.7 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns.

Purdy had the highest rating on throws 10-plus yards downfield on Sunday, going 5 of 7 for 95 yards with a score.

68.4% of his completions resulted in a first down or touchdown, the fourth-highest rate of the week.

Purdy carved through the Arizona blitz, completing 8 of 10 passes for 74 yards and 2 scores when blitzed.

That came against a depleted Arizona defense, but it was a good reminder of what this offense is capable of when everyone (outside of Brandon Aiyuk) is on the field at once.

Purdy is back in play as a QB1 against a Carolina defense that could be missing multiple defenders in the middle of the field, where a Kyle Shanahan offense wants to attack.

The Panthers lost linebackers Trevin Wallace and Christian Rozeboom to injuries.

Safety Lathan Ransom did not play last week due to a hand injury.

The Panthers have been beaten up in the middle of the field the past two weeks via the pass.

On throws between the numbers, they have allowed 8.8 yards per attempt (23rd) the past two weeks to Tyler Shough and Michael Penix.

On all throws, Penix was 13 of 16 for 10.9 Y/A before leaving with injury on Sunday, a week after Shough was 19 of 27 for 70.4% for 10.4 Y/A and 2 touchdowns.

Purdy gets another opponent struggling to rush the passer.

Carolina is 25th in pressure rate (31.7%) and 29th in sack rate (3.1%).

Bryce Young: Young had a career day on Sunday in a comeback win in Atlanta.

Young threw for a franchise record 448 passing yards, completing 31 of 45 passes for a career-high 10.0 yards per pass attempt.

He added 3 touchdowns.

He did all of that while working through an ankle issue.

We may need to keep Young in Atlanta.

His 31.8 fantasy points on Sunday were the second-most of his career, only behind the 36.4 he scored in Atlanta at the end of last season.

Before Sunday, Young’s previous career high in passing yardage was 328 yards.

It was just the third 300-yard passing game of his career, and first 400-yarder.

That was just the second time all season he reached the 200-yard passing mark.

Down 21-7 at the half, Carolina finally was pressed to get aggressive on offense.

Carolina had a 70% dropback rate in regulation, their highest since Week 2 when chasing points in Arizona.

What is wild is that they still had a pass rate just below expectations (-1%) and were 10% below pass rate expectations on first downs.

They only had a 51.7% dropback rate on first downs, despite averaging 2.8 yards per carry on their first down runs (16 attempts).

When they did let Young throw early, he was 11 of 14 for 215 yards (15.4 Y/A!) on first-down passes.

I prefer to use him as a high-end QB2 since Carolina is on the road with a sketchy team total.

But Young is one of the best streamers in Week 12 for gamers in need.

It may feel like point chasing, but we needed to see last week’s game from Young heading into this matchup.

We did not want the matchup to steer the ship completely.

We would love for Carolina to swerve more into the pass here before being pushed, but this San Francisco defense is primed to be pushed, and they have played in high-scoring game environments.

The 49ers are not even breathing on opposing quarterbacks.

Last week, Jacoby Brissett had 57 dropbacks, and the 49ers did not have a sack and only had a 17.2% pressure rate.

Over the past nine weeks, San Francisco has been last in the NFL in pressure rate (26.8%) and sack rate (2.3%).

They have not had more than 2 sacks in a game since Week 2.

Over the past seven weeks, San Francisco has allowed a 70.7% completion rate (29th), 7.8 yards per pass attempt (25th), and a 5.9% touchdown rate (25th).

They have allowed six QB1-scoring weeks over that span, with multiple passing touchdowns in six games.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey (TRUST): McCaffrey posted his third RB1 overall scoring week over the past five weeks on Sunday, turning 18 touches into 121 total yards and 3 touchdowns.

I don’t know why McCaffrey was still scoring his third touchdown of the game up 36-16 with five minutes to go, but gamers appreciate it.

With everyone back for the 49ers, McCaffrey still held a 24% target in the passing game, catching 5 of 6 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown.

The 49ers have actually gotten McCaffrey a lighter workload in the rushing game the past few weeks.

He had 13 runs on Sunday (61.9% of the backfield attempts) after 12 in Week 10 (60%).

Those are his two lowest rates of the season.

He was at 82.2% over the opening nine weeks.

McCaffrey ran 13 times for 81 yards (6.2 YPC).

It is also probably not a surprise that three of McCaffrey’s best rushing games have now come since George Kittle has returned.

McCaffrey has a 48.2% success rate as a runner since Kittle returned (RB6) after a 29.6% rate before (RB33).

He has a run of 10 or more yards on 15.3% of his attempts over the past five weeks (RB6) after a 5.6% rate prior (RB33).

The weekly question with McCaffrey is not if he will be an RB1, but whether he can be the RB1.

We started posing that now that he is running better.

All of his major spike weeks this season have come when he blends rushing efficiency with his receiving work.

Early in the year, he was building everything through receiving.

This is a week when the layout is strong for him to marry both roles.

If Carolina is down Rozeboom, Wallace, and Ransom, those are key run defenders for Carolina in the middle.

Ransom has the highest run defense grade among safeties this season.

Over the past four weeks, Carolina has allowed 5.2 YPC to running backs (27th) with a 53.3% success rate (29th).

Rico Dowdle: Dowdle has slowed down the past two weeks in the run game.

After rushing 18 times for 53 yards (2.9 YPC) in Week 10 against the Saints, he rushed 19 times for 45 yards (2.4 YPC) Sunday against the Falcons.

A big part of the recent issues has been the predictability of the offense, as noted earlier.

Carolina has the league’s lowest dropback rate on first downs (40.5%).

They have thrown the ball 13% below expectations on first downs this season.

Over the past two weeks, Dowdle has rushed 20 times for 60 yards on first downs (3.0 YPC) with a 15% success rate.

Even though Dowdle has found little room to run these past two weeks, he made up for it on Sunday in the passing game, catching 5 of 7 targets for 55 yards.

Dowdle still ended up with 24 touches, his third game in a row with at least 20 opportunities.

He has handled 84.4%, 84%, and 80% of the backfield touches since Canales pushed him back into the starting role.

It would be great for Carolina to break those early-down run tendencies and put themselves in more efficient offensive conditions, but Dowdle has a solid floor as a volume-based RB1.

The matchup is solid again here if they get things going and they do not fall behind as road underdogs.

San Francisco has a league-worst 46.2% success rate defending running back runs over the past three weeks.

They are allowing 4.6 YPC on backfield runs without Mykel Williams on the field with a league-low 50.9% success rate.

Wide Receiver

Tetairoa McMillan (TRUST): McMillan had a coming-out party last week, catching 8 of 12 targets for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns.

It is incredible what viable team passing volume can do when you have gaudy target share and air yard shares.

Coming into last week, McMillan was the WR9 in target share (26.8%) and the WR2 in share of air yards (43.2%).

But Young had not thrown the ball more than 25 times in a game since Week 5 and more than 30 times in a game since Week 2.

Young has thrown the ball more than 30 times in three games this season.

In those games, McMillan has had games of 5-68-0 (9 targets), 6-100-0 (10 targets), and last week’s 8-130-2 (12 targets).

This doesn’t have to be hard.

When the guy with front-end usage rates gets more top-down volume, he scores more fantasy points.

As noted throughout, Carolina was still run-heavy based on the implied game script last week and remains run-heavy on early downs.

I do not believe we are in the clear for this becoming a passing team, but the matchup completely aligns for them to throw the football successfully.

After highlighting what San Francisco has allowed passers to do over the past seven weeks, it naturally correlated with allowing big plays to receivers.

Over that same span, the 49ers are allowing 15.6 receptions (31st) for a league-high 196.6 receiving yards and 1.3 touchdowns (26th) per game to receivers.

Jauan Jennings: Jennings caught 4 of 6 targets for 54 yards on Sunday.

One of the big reveals we were looking for on Sunday was how the target tree would shake out for the 49ers since this was their first full game with all of their Week 1 starting skill players.

Jennings was on the field for 88.9% of the dropbacks, garnering 24% of the targets.

There is surely some fluidity here as Ricky Pearsall will get more targets some weeks, but Jennings is a viable fantasy WR3/FLEX.

We have not gotten spike weeks from this year, regardless of who has been available, but Jennings has found his footing in recent weeks with health and target opportunities.

Four of his five highest yardage totals on the season have come over the past four games, with target shares of 20% or more in five straight games.

Ricky Pearsall: The good news is that Pearsall was back for the first time since Week 4, and he did not have any restrictions, running a route on 85.2% of the dropbacks.

The bad news is that he only had 2 targets, catching 1 pass for 0 yards.

We still have a small sample this season (32 routes), but Pearsall has only been targeted on 12.5% of his routes with both Jennings and Kittle on the field.

With just Jennings on the field, that sample is larger (96 routes), and that rate is only 13.5%.

He has run 65 routes with both Jennings and Kittle off the field and has been targeted on 27.7%.

We are still finding out where things settle for this offense with all of their pieces in place, and we know Pearsall will hit some big plays, but Pearsall is a boom-or-bust WR4/FLEX until he can earn regular targets with the cupboard full.

Xavier Legette: Legette caught 4 of 8 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

Going along for the ride with Carolina throwing more, Legette was targeted on 25.8% of his routes, his second-highest rate of the season.

His 18.2% target share was still on the lighter end to be bullish on if Carolina reduces volume here.

When Legette had 11 targets in Week 7, he came back with 7 targets over his next three games.

As noted, the matchup is another good one, and we have a thin week at wide receiver for fantasy overall, pushing Legette into the WR4/FLEX area.

Legette picked up a hip injury in the fourth quarter and left the game as well.

He said he would be good for Monday, but that is something to keep an eye on.

Jalen Coker: Coker caught all 4 targets for 52 yards and a two-point conversion on Sunday.

Coker matched a season-high in targets but also ran a season-high 39 routes.

With Legette having a higher target rate, Coker only had 9.1% of the team’s targets.

He has been targeted on only 12.4% of his routes this season with 0.98 yards per route.

Coker’s top-down peripherals are the weakest of the Carolina receivers if passing volume drops.

This matchup is good enough to chase as a deeper-end FLEX, but he is best used for single-game DFS.

Coker is playing 61.2% of his snaps from the slot.

San Francisco is allowing 9.5 yards per target (31st) to slot receivers with a 10.6% touchdown rate (30th).

Tight End

George Kittle (TRUST): Kittle brought in all 6 of his targets for 67 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday.

The Purdy-to-Kittle connection was back in place.

Kittle has only run 37 routes with Purdy this season, but they have operated like they did a year ago.

On those 37 routes, Kittle has been targeted 27% of the time with 3 touchdowns.

Going back to last year, with both available, Purdy has targeted Kittle on a team-high 35.7% of his throws into the end zone.

While we are chasing a 2-touchdown game, Kittle runs into another great setup this week.

We have already highlighted the potential injuries Carolina faces at linebacker and safety in the middle of the field.

That would further open up an already great matchup.

Carolina is 30th in fantasy points allowed per target to tight ends (2.16), allowing a league-high 9.6 yards per target to the position with a 77.3% catch rate (28th) and a 6.7% touchdown rate (20th).

Panthers TEs: This is a sum-of-parts unit.

Carolina rotates their tight ends, which makes all of them touchdown-dependent fantasy plays.

Ja’Tavion Sanders ran 20 routes on Sunday, catching 4 passes for 22 yards.

Tommy Tremble ran 19 routes, having 1 catch for 54 yards in overtime to set up the win.

Mitchell Evans ran 12 routes, catching 2 passes for 28 yards.

More Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: