The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round matchup between the Eagles and Rams.
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| LA Rams | Rank | @ | Philadelphia | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 18.75 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 21.9 | 19 | Points/Gm | 26.9 | 7 |
| 21.9 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 17.4 | 1 |
| 60.6 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 3 |
| 62.7 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.8 | 1 |
| 5.4 | 15 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 11 |
| 5.6 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 1 |
| 43.26% | 17 | Rush% | 55.94% | 1 |
| 56.74% | 16 | Pass% | 44.06% | 32 |
| 44.24% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 41.64% | 10 |
| 55.76% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 58.36% | 23 |
Against the Spread:
- Eagles: 12-6
- Rams: 10-8
- Eagles Home: 6-4
- Rams Away: 5-3
- Eagles as Favorite: 9-6
- Rams as Underdog: 6-5
Game Overview
Sunday’s games kick off with a rematch from Week 12.
The Eagles went into Los Angeles that week on Sunday night, beating the Rams 37-20.
The game was 7-6 in favor of the Rams until 1:27 left in the first half.
Then, the Eagles scored a touchdown before the half and never looked back, outscoring the Rams 24-7 in the second half until Los Angeles added a late cosmetic touchdown with one minute left.
Philadelphia advanced last week on the foundation of what this team has been since their Week 5 bye: running the ball and playing great defense.
The Eagles had 4 takeaways on Sunday against Green Bay, the third time over their past four games that they have generated at least 4 turnovers.
The Eagles have now scored 111 points off turnovers, which is third in the league.
These are two of the better teams at limiting mistakes.
The Eagles and Rams have allowed 40 points off turnovers, tied for fifth in the league.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have allowed a league-low 1.38 points per drive.
The league average over that span is 2.08 points per drive.
Opponents have scored on 26% of their possessions against the Eagles during that period.
The next closest team over that period has allowed a 33.3% scoring rate per drive.
They have allowed 4.4 yards per play over that span while the league average is 5.5 yards per play.
In that Week 12 matchup, the Rams had only 4.9 yards per play and 290 yards on offense.
They had just two games with fewer yards than that this season with Puka Nacua active.
The Eagles also ran for 169 yards on Sunday.
49.2% of their offensive yardage has stemmed from the run, the highest rate in the league.
When these teams linked up in Week 12, the Eagles ran for a season-high 314 yards.
Since that game, the Rams’ starting defense has allowed 14 or fewer points in five of their past six games (excluding Week 18 when players rested) and single-digit points in four straight games.
Over that run, they have faced the Saints, Jets, Cardinals, and 49ers (in a rain-soaked game) but limited Minnesota to 9 points on Monday night.
In that sample, the Bills scored 42 points against them, while, as noted, the Eagles posted 37 right before they got hot.
When these teams played in Week 12, the Eagles averaged 7.1 yards per play.
The Rams only allowed two other teams more yards per play this season.
What killed the Rams outside of failing to stop the run in the first matchup is that they were 0-for-8 on third downs in that game.
They did have 3 conversions on fourth downs, but that was one of just three games this season in which a team did not convert a third down.
They averaged 9.4 yards needed per third down attempt.
This has been the one bugaboo for the Rams offense, even at full strength.
The Rams have converted 36% of their third downs, 25th in the NFL and the lowest rate of any team in the playoffs.
Even on Monday, in their one-sided win, the Rams were 2 of 10 on third downs.
The Eagles have a slight rest advantage as Los Angeles played on Monday. They also have a cross-country trip on the road.
Philadelphia is 3-1 with a rest advantage this season while the Rams are 2-2 with a disadvantage.
If you are looking at an upset here, the Rams have traveled well under Sean McVay.
They are 16-7 (14-7-2 against the spread) in the Eastern Time Zone but 1-2 (2-1 ATS) in the postseason heading east.
With a win (and cover) on Sunday, the Eagles are now 3-0 heads up and versus the spread at home in the postseason under Nick Sirianni.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts: Hurts was not tasked with lifting much on Sunday but struggled when the Eagles attempted to push the ball.
Hurts ended Sunday’s game 13 of 21 for 131 yards (6.2 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
He added 36 yards rushing to churn out a respectable 16.8 standard fantasy points.
Whether you want to attribute his performance to rust due to not playing since Dec. 22 or the quality of the Green Bay defense, it was the fourth time over his past 6 games in which Hurts has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points.
As lackluster as that sounds, Hurts was fourth last week in passing points per attempt (0.630) since he threw a pair of touchdowns and did not turn the ball over.
Hurts has thrown multiple passing scores in three straight games and just 1 interception over his past 13 games.
Overall passing volume once again limited his overall output.
The Eagles' 42.1% dropback rate on Sunday was the second-lowest of any team over the weekend.
They threw the ball 12% below expectations and a whopping 25% below expectations on first down.
During the regular season, Philadelphia had a league-low 47.9% dropback rate, throwing the ball 8% below expectations and 9% below expectations on first down.
The Eagles had a 30% dropback rate in the second half on Sunday.
That rate was 39.6% in the second half of games in the regular season.
Even for them, Sunday was an ultra-conservative approach.
When these teams played in Week 12, Hurts was 15 of 22 (68.2%) for 179 yards (8.1 Y/A) with a touchdown passing, adding 39 yards rushing (15.1 fantasy points).
In that game, Hurts was 11 of 15 (73.3%) for 101 yards (6.7 Y/A) and a touchdown in the first half but only threw the ball 7 more times after halftime.
If the Rams succeed in pulling out this upset, they must force the Eagles to throw the football more while continuing to find a way to apply pressure when Hurts does drop back.
The Rams pressured Hurts on 34.6% of his dropbacks in Week 12.
Under pressure, Hurts was 2 of 7 (28.6%) for 2.4 Y/A.
Hurts has been one of the most sensitive quarterbacks to pressure this season.
When kept clean, Hurts has completed 79.2% of his passes (2nd) for 9.3 Y/A (2nd)
Under pressure, Hurts has completed 45.1% of his passes (24th) for 5.0 Y/A (30th).
The Rams are among the most sensitive pass defenses when creating pressure versus not getting home.
Over their past 11 games, the Rams have allowed a 48.2% completion rate (14th) and 5.3 Y/A (3rd) when creating pressure on the opposing quarterback.
Without pressure, they have allowed a 72% completion rate (18th) and 7.9 Y/A (23rd).
Matthew Stafford: Stafford opened the game on Monday night on fire.
He connected on 11 of 12 passes for 124 yards (10.3 Y/A) and a touchdown in the first quarter.
Minnesota then provided zero pushback, and Stafford was not tasked with much more lifting.
He went 8 of 15 (53.3%) for 85 yards (5.7 Y/A) and a touchdown the rest of the way.
When these teams played in Week 12, Stafford was the opposite of his performance on Monday.
In the first game between these teams, Stafford was 7 of 11 for 67 yards (6.1 Y/A) in the first half before completing 17 of 25 passes for 176 yards (7.0 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns in the second half chasing points.
He was sacked 5 times, matching a season high.
The Eagles played aggressively in that game.
They played man coverage on 32.2% of the snaps, above their 24.1% rate on the year and the fourth-highest rate for them in a game this season.
On those plays in man coverage, Stafford was 5 of 12 (41.7%) for 24 yards (2.0 Y/A).
When the Eagles played zone coverage, Stafford went 19 of 24 (79.2%) for 219 yards (9.2 Y/A).
He ended the game with 19.2 fantasy points, so not all was lost from a fantasy lens.
Stafford has averaged 202 passing yards over his past seven games with one game reaching 250 yards during that stretch.
The Eagles have allowed more than 260 passing yards in one game this season.
They allow a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt, forcing Stafford to remain efficient and sustain a high touchdown rate.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Divisional Round Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Lions | Saturday -- 8 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Eagles | Sunday -- 3 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bills | Sunday -- 6:30 p.m. ET |